Isaac SchorrApr 28th, 2026, 1:35 pm

A stunning new survey from Harvard’s Center For American Political Studies and HarrisX found that Republicans and Democrats are tied in the generic congressional ballot roughly six month out from November’s midterm elections.

The poll of 2,745 registered voters was conducted between April 23 and 26 and carried a 1.87% margin of error, and asked the question, “If the congressional election were held today would
you be more likely to vote for a Democrat or a Republican for Congress?”

Fifty percent of those surveyed indicated they’d vote for their local Democrat, while the other 50% said they bled red. Democrats do boast a 52%-48% advantage with independents, however. All in all, 71% of respondents aid they were “definitely” or “probably” going to vote, but Republicans boasted a slight advantage in that regard. Sixty-two percent of Republican respondents  indicated they were definitely going to vote, and an additional 18% said they’d probably vote. For Democrats, those figures were 59% and 17%, while for independents, they were 40% and 17%.

Americans are also evenly split (50%-50%) on the question of whether Trump is performing better or worse than his predecessor, former President Joe Biden. His net approval rating presently stands at -9 (42%-53%) but is a few points better with likely midterm voters (46%-51%).

The most pressing issue to the electorate remains inflation/affordability (35% call it one of “the most important issues facing the country today”), followed by economy and jobs (28%), immigration (24%), health care (22%), the U.S.-Iran conflict (20%), and corruption (18%).

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