As Republicans in several states race to redraw congressional maps to secure more seats for GOP candidates, a shocking new poll has suggested the party might want to proceed with caution.

According to a New York Times/Siena poll out Monday, Republicans are in a serious hole on the generic congressional ballot. Respondents were asked, “If the 2026 general election for Congress were held today, which party’s candidate would you be more likely to vote for in your district?” And 50 percent said they would back the Democratic candidate, while just 39 percent said they would pick the Republican.

That 11-point spread is way up from the 5-point margin the same poll showed in January. It is also a larger split than most other recent polls have shown — according to RealClearPolitics, which tracks all major polls.

In a recent appearance on Fox News, Republican strategist Karl Rove warned that redistricting may not play out the way Republicans would want.

“You could in essence take … like here in Texas, take big cities, which are typically Democrat, and split them up among several sort of suburban and rural Republicans and thereby reduce their margin and make [House Republicans] more vulnerable in an election year,” Rove said (via The Hill).

Indeed, a poll showing Democrats +11 on the generic ballot suggests that Republicans in swing districts will be quite vulnerable.

Elsewhere in the NY Times poll, President Donald Trump clocked in at a 37 percent approval rating, with 59 percent saying they disapprove. That number tracks with other recent surveys, which put Trump’s approval in the 30s. The president has now, for the first time in his second term, dipped below 40 percent in the RealClearPolitics combined approval rating — a number that even includes several right-leaning surveys.

In addition, CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten declared on Saturday that Trump is getting the “worst polls ever for any president” on inflation.

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