Longtime political commentator Mark Halperin called this year’s race for U.S. Senate in the Lone Star State a “real race” after Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s triumph in the GOP primary.

Paxton is set to face off against Democrat James Talarico — whose supporters tout his political talent, and detractors argue is way out of step with his state’s electorate — in November’s general election.

During Thursday’s edition of Next Up with Mark Halperin, the eponymous host weighed in on why Paxton prevailed in the primary and why he may fall short a few months from now.

“Paxton did not win this nomination because of Donald Trump, and some of my colleagues are already writing that over and over again, ‘Well, Paxton wouldn’t be the nominee, but Trump.’ The reality is the reason I think Donald Trump endorsed him when he did was because it was a foregone conclusion. He wanted to get in front of the parade. Paxton was way ahead, and that’s because his main message is anti-establishment and being tough on the border, and those messages allowed him to beat John Cornyn, an establishment figure, the incumbent, and also puts him up well for the general election in the sense that that’s the mood of the Texas electorate — not everybody — but that’s that dominant mood. Tough on the border, anti-establishment,” submitted Halperin, who continued:

Now we also know, though, that Paxton is a weak candidate. And that’s why this is a race, that’s why this is race. Doesn’t mean it’s Donald Trump’s fault that Paxton’s the nominee as a weak general election candidate. He won because within the Republican electorate, he was better suited than Cornyn. But he is unusually polarizing, even by the standards of the way Texas Republicans have run. His ceiling is probably lower in terms of what he can win in a general election that a generic Republican, but he has the advantage because the base will be more inspired to turn out for him than they would have been for Cornyn.

But his weakness is manifest, and this is a weakness that comes from all the personal controversies, his trouble with the truth, trouble with the law, trouble in his marriage that’s dissolving. Karl Rove made this point and looked at the data from, in his column in The Wall Street Journal, looked — and he knows Texas well — looked at the data and even before all these scandals became public and well-known, look at how Paxton has done the last two times he was on the ballot. Yes, he has won statewide in Texas in the past, but you look at how he’s run compared to other Republicans running statewide in the last two years he ran, go ahead and put that up. In 2018, he was on the ballot running for attorney general, and then again in 2022 he was on the ballot. And in 2018, he ran 175,000 votes behind the average Republican also on the statewide ballot, and then slightly better, 155,000 behind. But that’s statistical. He’s not been a strong statewide general election candidate.

Watch above via Next Up with Mark Halperin on YouTube.

New: The Mediaite One-Sheet "Newsletter of Newsletters"
Your daily summary and analysis of what the many, many media newsletters are saying and reporting. Subscribe now!