World Cup

Boston is already saying a mournful goodbye to the Tartan Army. But the math says that Scotland could very well be playing another game in Foxborough later this month.

By Kevin Slane

June 20, 2026 | 12:45 PM

3 minutes to read

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But Boston shouldn’t despair quite yet: As of Saturday morning, Scotland is tentatively slated to play a third game at Boston Stadium on Monday, June 29, if current results hold.

It’s a scenario that would likely thrill both Scottish fans and Bostonians – particularly those who own downtown bars. But how likely is it to happen? The answer is complicated.

FIFA’s third-place rules, explained

In previous World Cups, the group stage consisted of 32 teams split into eight groups of four. The four teams would play each other once each, earning three points for a win, one point for a tie, and zero points for a loss. The top two teams from each group would then advance to the knockout stage.

Thanks to the World Cup’s newly expanded 48-team field, there are now 12 groups instead of eight. And at the end of the group stage, the eight third-placed teams with the most points from group play will advance to the knockout stage.

If a team is level on total points, the next tiebreakers are (in order): goal difference, total goals scored, team conduct score (how many yellow and red cards a team has received,) and finally, FIFA World Rankings.

As of now, Scotland tops the third-place standings, though that will likely change when more groups play their second game.

How likely is it that Scotland will advance?

The first step to Scotland playing a third game in Boston would be for the team to qualify for the Round of 32. 

Scotland have already clinched at least a third-placed finish in Group C because of their head-to-head win over Haiti. Sitting at three points, Scotland currently has a 73.57% chance of advancing to the knockout round, per Opta Stats.

Scotland’s chances would rise significantly if the team managed a draw against Brazil on June 24, bringing their group stage total to 4 points. Prior to the tournament, the number-crunchers over at BBC calculated that any third-placed team that managed to get 4 points in the group stage would have a 99.81% chance of advancing to the knockouts.

How likely is it that a third-place Scotland ends up in Boston?

The short answer? The odds are very good. But how we get to that answer is very complicated.

The June 29 knockout game at Boston Stadium will feature the winner of Group E against a third-placed finisher from either Group A, B, C, D, or F.

If all of those teams were to advance, the order in which they finished in the third-place standings wouldn’t matter. The only thing that matters is which combination of eight teams advance.

To explain this further: If the eight third-placed teams advancing to the Round of 32 came from Groups A, B, C, D, E, F, G, and H, that would be one hypothetical outcome. If the teams from groups A, B, C, D, E, F, G, and I were to advance, that would be a second, different scenario. 

In total, there are a mind-boggling 495 possible permutations of third-place finishers advancing. 

Deep in an appendix of FIFA’s World Cup regulations handbook, there is a table that lists exactly where each team would be placed in the knockout bracket based on which of these 495 scenarios comes to pass.

Of the 330 permutations in which Scotland advances, 231 (70%) of them would slot them at Boston Stadium for the knockout game. 

Other possibilities for Scotland and Boston Stadium

If they advance, Scotland’s only other possible landing spots involve June 30 matches against either Mexico in Mexico City (29% chance) or the Group I winner in New Jersey (less than 1%).

As for Boston Stadium, if Scotland doesn’t return, the next most-likely team to play at Boston Stadium would be the third-placed finisher from Group D, which will be either Australia or Paraguay.

Ultimately, many Scotland fans who have already spent more than a week in Boston may be heading home regardless of what happens to the team going forward. But just to be safe, Boston bars should probably consider keeping “Yes Sir, I Can Boogie” on the jukebox until the end of the month. And they should definitely stock up on beer.