惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

Google DeepMind News
Google DeepMind News
freeCodeCamp Programming Tutorials: Python, JavaScript, Git & More
酷 壳 – CoolShell
酷 壳 – CoolShell
WordPress大学
WordPress大学
小众软件
小众软件
博客园 - 司徒正美
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
Jina AI
Jina AI
Hugging Face - Blog
Hugging Face - Blog
博客园 - Franky
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
量子位
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
雷峰网
雷峰网
云风的 BLOG
云风的 BLOG
M
MIT News - Artificial intelligence
F
Fortinet All Blogs
T
Tailwind CSS Blog
Martin Fowler
Martin Fowler
I
InfoQ
The GitHub Blog
The GitHub Blog
有赞技术团队
有赞技术团队
The Cloudflare Blog
罗磊的独立博客

cs.CL updates on arXiv.org

Playing Along: Learning a Double-Agent Defender for Belief Steering via Theory of Mind RPA-Check: A Multi-Stage Automated Framework for Evaluating Dynamic LLM-based Role-Playing Agents A Triadic Suffix Tokenization Scheme for Numerical Reasoning Hidden Measurement Error in LLM Pipelines Distorts Annotation, Evaluation, and Benchmarking Synthius-Mem: Brain-Inspired Hallucination-Resistant Persona Memory Achieving 94.4% Memory Accuracy and 99.6% Adversarial Robustness on LoCoMo Time is Not a Label: Continuous Phase Rotation for Temporal Knowledge Graphs and Agentic Memory NovBench: Evaluating Large Language Models on Academic Paper Novelty Assessment Policy Split: Incentivizing Dual-Mode Exploration in LLM Reinforcement with Dual-Mode Entropy Regularization METER: Evaluating Multi-Level Contextual Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models Think Before you Write: QA-Guided Reasoning for Character Descriptions in Books METRO: Towards Strategy Induction from Expert Dialogue Transcripts for Non-collaborative Dialogues Retrieval as Generation: A Unified Framework with Self-Triggered Information Planning Do LLMs Know Tool Irrelevance? Demystifying Structural Alignment Bias in Tool Invocations Enhancing Multimodal Large Language Models for Ancient Chinese Character Evolution Analysis via Glyph-Driven Fine-Tuning Polyglot Teachers: Evaluating Language Models for Multilingual Synthetic Data Generation Exploring Knowledge Conflicts for Faithful LLM Reasoning: Benchmark and Method CocoaBench: Evaluating Unified Digital Agents in the Wild MathAgent: Adversarial Evolution of Constraint Graphs for Mathematical Reasoning Data Synthesis Evaluating Memory Capability in Continuous Lifelog Scenario How Robust Are Large Language Models for Clinical Numeracy? An Empirical Study on Numerical Reasoning Abilities in Clinical Contexts Efficient Training for Cross-lingual Speech Language Models Shared Emotion Geometry Across Small Language Models: A Cross-Architecture Study of Representation, Behavior, and Methodological Confounds A Systematic Analysis of the Impact of Persona Steering on LLM Capabilities Uncertainty-Aware Web-Conditioned Scientific Fact-Checking When Valid Signals Fail: Regime Boundaries Between LLM Features and RL Trading Policies When Verification Fails: How Compositionally Infeasible Claims Escape Rejection Mem$^2$Evolve: Towards Self-Evolving Agents via Co-Evolutionary Capability Expansion and Experience Distillation AOP-Smart: A RAG-Enhanced Large Language Model Framework for Adverse Outcome Pathway Analysis OccuBench: Evaluating AI Agents on Real-World Professional Tasks via Language Environment Simulation Advancing Polish Language Modeling through Tokenizer Optimization in the Bielik v3 7B and 11B Series
Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of L...
Sang-Woo Lee, Sohee Yang, Donghyun Kwak, Noah Y. Siegel · 2025-07-26 · via cs.CL updates on arXiv.org

Many recent papers have studied the development of superforecaster-level event forecasting LLMs. While methodological problems with early studies cast doubt on the use of LLMs for event forecasting, recent studies with improved evaluation methods have shown that state-of-the-art LLMs are gradually reaching superforecaster-level performance, and reinforcement learning has also been reported to improve future forecasting. Additionally, the unprecedented success of recent reasoning models and Deep Research-style models suggests that technology capable of greatly improving forecasting performance has been developed. Therefore, based on these positive recent trends, we argue that the time is ripe for research on large-scale training of superforecaster-level event forecasting LLMs. We discuss two key research directions: training methods and data acquisition. For training, we first introduce three difficulties of LLM-based event forecasting training: noisiness-sparsity, knowledge cut-off, and simple reward structure problems. Then, we present related ideas to mitigate these problems: hypothetical event Bayesian networks, utilizing poorly-recalled and counterfactual events, and auxiliary reward signals. For data, we propose aggressive use of market, public, and crawling datasets to enable large-scale training and evaluation. Finally, we explain how these technical advances could enable AI to provide predictive intelligence to society in broader areas. This position paper presents promising specific paths and considerations for getting closer to superforecaster-level AI technology, aiming to call for researchers' interest in these directions.