We investigate when transformer MLP nonlinearity is actually necessary. A gate with $d+1$ parameters decides when to replace the full MLP with a linear surrogate. Through systematic investigation across six models (162M-2.8B parameters), two architectures, and three corpora, we establish that nonlinearity need cannot be predicted from token identity: cross-corpus correlation is zero ($r < 0.05$). The routing decision is fully contextual. Despite weak per-instance predictability, the gate exploits a heavily skewed distribution where most MLP computations are near-linear, achieving 25-56% linear routing at <1% perplexity cost in GPT-2. In GPT-2 Large, 11 of 36 layers beat baseline with gating and no layer exceeds 3.7% all-linear cost. This success is architecture-dependent: Pythia models show higher costs, though Pythia-2.8B's full 32-layer sweep reveals one layer that narrowly beats baseline. As a proof of concept, we progressively replace middle-layer MLPs with frozen linear matrices: 5 of 24 layers linearize at zero cost. With a full training budget, 4 linearized layers yield a 10.2% perplexity improvement -- and a two-phase gated approach pushes this to 17.3%, beating a vanilla fine-tuning control and confirming that the nonlinear MLPs at these layers were actively harmful.