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cs.CL updates on arXiv.org

Playing Along: Learning a Double-Agent Defender for Belief Steering via Theory of Mind RPA-Check: A Multi-Stage Automated Framework for Evaluating Dynamic LLM-based Role-Playing Agents A Triadic Suffix Tokenization Scheme for Numerical Reasoning Hidden Measurement Error in LLM Pipelines Distorts Annotation, Evaluation, and Benchmarking Synthius-Mem: Brain-Inspired Hallucination-Resistant Persona Memory Achieving 94.4% Memory Accuracy and 99.6% Adversarial Robustness on LoCoMo Time is Not a Label: Continuous Phase Rotation for Temporal Knowledge Graphs and Agentic Memory NovBench: Evaluating Large Language Models on Academic Paper Novelty Assessment Policy Split: Incentivizing Dual-Mode Exploration in LLM Reinforcement with Dual-Mode Entropy Regularization METER: Evaluating Multi-Level Contextual Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models Think Before you Write: QA-Guided Reasoning for Character Descriptions in Books METRO: Towards Strategy Induction from Expert Dialogue Transcripts for Non-collaborative Dialogues Retrieval as Generation: A Unified Framework with Self-Triggered Information Planning Do LLMs Know Tool Irrelevance? Demystifying Structural Alignment Bias in Tool Invocations Enhancing Multimodal Large Language Models for Ancient Chinese Character Evolution Analysis via Glyph-Driven Fine-Tuning Polyglot Teachers: Evaluating Language Models for Multilingual Synthetic Data Generation Exploring Knowledge Conflicts for Faithful LLM Reasoning: Benchmark and Method CocoaBench: Evaluating Unified Digital Agents in the Wild MathAgent: Adversarial Evolution of Constraint Graphs for Mathematical Reasoning Data Synthesis Evaluating Memory Capability in Continuous Lifelog Scenario How Robust Are Large Language Models for Clinical Numeracy? 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Simulating Organized Group Behavior: New Framework, Benchmark, and Analysis Spoiler Alert: Narrative Forecasting as a Metric for Tension in LLM Storytelling Claim2Vec: Embedding Fact-Check Claims for Multilingual Similarity and Clustering GIANTS: Generative Insight Anticipation from Scientific Literature Many-Tier Instruction Hierarchy in LLM Agents Interactive ASR: Towards Human-Like Interaction and Semantic Coherence Evaluation for Agentic Speech Recognition Regime-Conditional Retrieval: Theory and a Transferable Router for Two-Hop QA ASTRA: Adaptive Semantic Tree Reasoning Architecture for Complex Table Question Answering Revisiting the Capacity Gap in Chain-of-Thought Distillation from a Practical Perspective Dictionary-Aligned Concept Control for Safeguarding Multimodal LLMs $p1$: Better Prompt Optimization with Fewer Prompts Every Response Counts: Quantifying Uncertainty of LLM-based Multi-Agent Systems through Tensor Decomposition Skip-Connected Policy Optimization for Implicit Advantage PRAGMA: Revolut Foundation Model Linear Representations of Hierarchical Concepts in Language Models Generating High Quality Synthetic Data for Dutch Medical Conversations HumorGen: Cognitive Synergy for Humor Generation in Large Language Models via Persona-Based Distillation Toward Generalized Cross-Lingual Hateful Language Detection with Web-Scale Data and Ensemble LLM Annotations Self-Calibrating Language Models via Test-Time Discriminative Distillation Re-Mask and Redirect: Exploiting Denoising Irreversibility in Diffusion Language Models H-AdminSim: A Multi-Agent Simulator for Realistic Hospital Administrative Workflows with FHIR Integration Reasoning Models Will Sometimes Lie About Their Reasoning
Re-feeding Is Not Replaying: Measuring Replay Noise in Counterfactual Token-Credit Estimation
[Submitted on 14 Jun 2026] · 2026-06-16 · via cs.CL updates on arXiv.org

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Abstract:Per-token counterfactual credit estimation asks which token in a language-model rollout caused the final answer to be right or wrong: cut the transcript at a pivot, substitute an alternative token, replay continuations, and compare outcomes. Published methods re-feed the transcript prefix as a fresh prompt, assuming this reproduces the state the model passed through during generation. We measure what that assumption costs on a stock inference engine, with a three-pass design: continuations resumed from the verified decode-time KV state, an identical second exact pass (a replica noise floor), and a re-feed pass. Across six configurations and three models (including a GRPO-trained checkpoint), at low-margin decision tokens, re-feeding changes the credit estimate at rates 14-28 percentage points above the replica floor (7-21pp under a treatment-independent conditioning; problem-clustered t = 2.9-6.4). Most changes are zero-boundary crossings of the quantized estimator rather than polarity reversals, and the perturbation is consistent with mean-zero, so averaged quantities are largely safe; but selection is not: a critical-token set chosen by thresholding $|\hat{A}_t|$ under re-feed overlaps the exact-resume selection at Jaccard 0.34-0.90, versus a 0.63-0.96 replica ceiling. A causal confirmation closes the loop: under vLLM's batch-invariant kernels all three passes are identical on every measured channel, with both disagreement rates exactly zero. Replica passes themselves disagree on 9-23% of eligible estimates: single-sample credit measurements at decision tokens are unreliable under any replay. Settings were fixed in advance; exact-pass cache hits in the second campaign are instrumented (100% hit rate, 3,434 pivots); total compute was under 10 USD. We recommend that counterfactual credit studies resume decoder state or use batch-invariant kernels, and report a replica floor.

Submission history

From: Nils Matteson [view email]
[v1] Sun, 14 Jun 2026 06:09:16 UTC (66 KB)