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Playing Along: Learning a Double-Agent Defender for Belief Steering via Theory of Mind RPA-Check: A Multi-Stage Automated Framework for Evaluating Dynamic LLM-based Role-Playing Agents A Triadic Suffix Tokenization Scheme for Numerical Reasoning Hidden Measurement Error in LLM Pipelines Distorts Annotation, Evaluation, and Benchmarking Synthius-Mem: Brain-Inspired Hallucination-Resistant Persona Memory Achieving 94.4% Memory Accuracy and 99.6% Adversarial Robustness on LoCoMo Time is Not a Label: Continuous Phase Rotation for Temporal Knowledge Graphs and Agentic Memory NovBench: Evaluating Large Language Models on Academic Paper Novelty Assessment Policy Split: Incentivizing Dual-Mode Exploration in LLM Reinforcement with Dual-Mode Entropy Regularization METER: Evaluating Multi-Level Contextual Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models Think Before you Write: QA-Guided Reasoning for Character Descriptions in Books METRO: Towards Strategy Induction from Expert Dialogue Transcripts for Non-collaborative Dialogues Retrieval as Generation: A Unified Framework with Self-Triggered Information Planning Do LLMs Know Tool Irrelevance? Demystifying Structural Alignment Bias in Tool Invocations Enhancing Multimodal Large Language Models for Ancient Chinese Character Evolution Analysis via Glyph-Driven Fine-Tuning Polyglot Teachers: Evaluating Language Models for Multilingual Synthetic Data Generation Exploring Knowledge Conflicts for Faithful LLM Reasoning: Benchmark and Method CocoaBench: Evaluating Unified Digital Agents in the Wild MathAgent: Adversarial Evolution of Constraint Graphs for Mathematical Reasoning Data Synthesis Evaluating Memory Capability in Continuous Lifelog Scenario How Robust Are Large Language Models for Clinical Numeracy? An Empirical Study on Numerical Reasoning Abilities in Clinical Contexts Efficient Training for Cross-lingual Speech Language Models Shared Emotion Geometry Across Small Language Models: A Cross-Architecture Study of Representation, Behavior, and Methodological Confounds A Systematic Analysis of the Impact of Persona Steering on LLM Capabilities Uncertainty-Aware Web-Conditioned Scientific Fact-Checking When Valid Signals Fail: Regime Boundaries Between LLM Features and RL Trading Policies When Verification Fails: How Compositionally Infeasible Claims Escape Rejection Mem$^2$Evolve: Towards Self-Evolving Agents via Co-Evolutionary Capability Expansion and Experience Distillation AOP-Smart: A RAG-Enhanced Large Language Model Framework for Adverse Outcome Pathway Analysis OccuBench: Evaluating AI Agents on Real-World Professional Tasks via Language Environment Simulation Advancing Polish Language Modeling through Tokenizer Optimization in the Bielik v3 7B and 11B Series
Monte Carlo Temperature: a robust sampling strategy for L...
Nicola Cecere, Andrea Bacciu, Ignacio Fernández Tobías, Amin Man · 2025-02-26 · via cs.CL updates on arXiv.org

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in Large Language Models (LLMs) is essential for their safe and reliable deployment, particularly in critical applications where incorrect outputs can have serious consequences. Current UQ methods typically rely on querying the model multiple times using non-zero temperature sampling to generate diverse outputs for uncertainty estimation. However, the impact of selecting a given temperature parameter is understudied, and our analysis reveals that temperature plays a fundamental role in the quality of uncertainty estimates. The conventional approach of identifying optimal temperature values requires expensive hyperparameter optimization (HPO) that must be repeated for each new model-dataset combination. We propose Monte Carlo Temperature (MCT), a robust sampling strategy that eliminates the need for temperature calibration. Our analysis reveals that: 1) MCT provides more robust uncertainty estimates across a wide range of temperatures, 2) MCT improves the performance of UQ methods by replacing fixed-temperature strategies that do not rely on HPO, and 3) MCT achieves statistical parity with oracle temperatures, which represent the ideal outcome of a well-tuned but computationally expensive HPO process. These findings demonstrate that effective UQ can be achieved without the computational burden of temperature parameter calibration.