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Playing Along: Learning a Double-Agent Defender for Belief Steering via Theory of Mind RPA-Check: A Multi-Stage Automated Framework for Evaluating Dynamic LLM-based Role-Playing Agents A Triadic Suffix Tokenization Scheme for Numerical Reasoning Hidden Measurement Error in LLM Pipelines Distorts Annotation, Evaluation, and Benchmarking Synthius-Mem: Brain-Inspired Hallucination-Resistant Persona Memory Achieving 94.4% Memory Accuracy and 99.6% Adversarial Robustness on LoCoMo Time is Not a Label: Continuous Phase Rotation for Temporal Knowledge Graphs and Agentic Memory NovBench: Evaluating Large Language Models on Academic Paper Novelty Assessment Policy Split: Incentivizing Dual-Mode Exploration in LLM Reinforcement with Dual-Mode Entropy Regularization METER: Evaluating Multi-Level Contextual Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models Think Before you Write: QA-Guided Reasoning for Character Descriptions in Books METRO: Towards Strategy Induction from Expert Dialogue Transcripts for Non-collaborative Dialogues Retrieval as Generation: A Unified Framework with Self-Triggered Information Planning Do LLMs Know Tool Irrelevance? Demystifying Structural Alignment Bias in Tool Invocations Enhancing Multimodal Large Language Models for Ancient Chinese Character Evolution Analysis via Glyph-Driven Fine-Tuning Polyglot Teachers: Evaluating Language Models for Multilingual Synthetic Data Generation Exploring Knowledge Conflicts for Faithful LLM Reasoning: Benchmark and Method CocoaBench: Evaluating Unified Digital Agents in the Wild MathAgent: Adversarial Evolution of Constraint Graphs for Mathematical Reasoning Data Synthesis Evaluating Memory Capability in Continuous Lifelog Scenario How Robust Are Large Language Models for Clinical Numeracy? An Empirical Study on Numerical Reasoning Abilities in Clinical Contexts Efficient Training for Cross-lingual Speech Language Models Shared Emotion Geometry Across Small Language Models: A Cross-Architecture Study of Representation, Behavior, and Methodological Confounds A Systematic Analysis of the Impact of Persona Steering on LLM Capabilities Uncertainty-Aware Web-Conditioned Scientific Fact-Checking When Valid Signals Fail: Regime Boundaries Between LLM Features and RL Trading Policies When Verification Fails: How Compositionally Infeasible Claims Escape Rejection Mem$^2$Evolve: Towards Self-Evolving Agents via Co-Evolutionary Capability Expansion and Experience Distillation AOP-Smart: A RAG-Enhanced Large Language Model Framework for Adverse Outcome Pathway Analysis OccuBench: Evaluating AI Agents on Real-World Professional Tasks via Language Environment Simulation Advancing Polish Language Modeling through Tokenizer Optimization in the Bielik v3 7B and 11B Series
Frontier Lag: A Bibliometric Audit of Capability Misrepre...
David Gringras, Misha Salahshoor · 2026-05-06 · via cs.CL updates on arXiv.org

Readers of applied-domain LLM capability evaluations want to know what AI systems can currently do. That literature answers a related, but consequentially different, question: what older, cheaper, less-elicited models could do months or years earlier (a 2026 paper evaluating GPT-3.5 or GPT-4 zero-shot, say, against a frontier of reasoning-capable, tool-using systems like GPT-5.5 Pro and Claude Opus 4.7), often reported with sparse configuration details and abstracted upward into claims about "AI" that propagate through citations, media, and policy. We measure the 'publication elicitation gap' (the gap between these answers) in a pre-registered audit of 112,303 LLM-keyword-matched candidate records (2022-01 to 2026-04; 18,574 admissible, 4,766 full-paper texts retrievable), comparing tested models to the contemporaneous frontier on the Epoch AI Capabilities Index (ECI), reproduced under Arena Elo and Artificial Analysis. The median paper evaluates a model +10.85 ECI (~1.4x the distance between Claude Sonnet 3.7 and Claude Opus 4.5) behind the contemporaneous frontier at evaluation time (H1); an exploratory rational-lag baseline (H8) decomposes this into ~25% peer-review latency, ~75% excess lag. The gap is widening at +5.53 ECI/year (H2; 95% CI [+5.03, +5.83]). Meanwhile, only 3.2% of abstracts (21.2% of full-texts) disclose reasoning-mode status on reasoning-capable models (H4) and 52.5% (95% CI [48.2, 56.9]) state conclusions at the level of "AI" rather than the evaluated model(s), rising at OR = 1.23/year. Proposed remedies include API-access subsidies and editorial enforcement of reporting frameworks mandating configuration-surface disclosure (model snapshot, reasoning mode/effort, tool access, scaffolding, prompting, etc.); VERSIO-AI is a 13-item checklist (Core 3 desk-reject) extending existing frameworks at the elicitation surface, with per-DOI analysis at frontierlag.org.