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RUSI: Latest Publications

Episode 21: Chinese Money Laundering and the ‘Flying Money’ Threat Armenia’s Election: A Win for Pashinyan, Yet the Kremlin Long Game Persists The Loyalty Trap: Trump and the Undermining of US Intelligence Power The End of Orbánism? Bosnia, Magyar and Europe’s Strategic Credibility The Curious Case of the Delayed Investment Plan The Energy Supply Cliff is Alarmingly Near Europe Means Business on Cloud and AI Sovereignty No-Rules Based Order: The World As It Really Is The Nathan Gill Case: Isolated Foreign Malign Interference Case or a Broader Hybrid Threat? Armenia’s Election and the Future of Security in the South Caucasus The DPRK’s Chemical Facilities: Sunchon Area: Site Profile 7 Reforming Defence: Lessons from the UK Defence Restructuring History The DPRK’s Chemical Facilities: 8th February Vinalon Complex: Site Profile 8 Power Under Dependency: Vulnerabilities in France’s Strategic Posture Re-Establishing Japan’s Intelligence Capability – ‘Spy Paradise’ lost? Episode 121: No Easy Off-Ramp: Iran, the US and the Search for a Deal Illegal High Street Enterprise. Closed for Business, Open for Crime Hollowing Out Lebanon: How Pressure on Hezbollah Could Save It Duke of Wellington Medal for Military History 2025 Episode 19: Adversarial Strategy: Russia’s Preparations for a Long War Who Rules Cyberspace? The Microsoft Approach to Cyber Diplomacy The Inextricable Link Between Geopolitics, Security and Humanitarian Impact Offshore Wind and Security in the North Sea: Key Findings from a Workshop The UK’s Chagos Islands ‘Deal’: Where are We Now? Integrating Hunt Forward Operations for Enhanced UK Cyber Campaigning Europe’s AML Package: A Strong Framework at the Wrong Time? How North Korea is Modernising its Defence NATO’s Rutte is Doing a Tough Job. Europeans Should Help The US Army’s Next Generation Squad Weapon and the Future of NATO Standardisation Episode 15: Integrating Today’s Forces for Air and Missile Defence RUSI Reflects: The Reality of an Extended Closure of the Strait of Hormuz Corporations Must Re-learn How to be Geopolitical Actors Why the US’s Financial Efforts to Keep the Hormuz Strait Open Failed The Real Test for Iran Comes After the War Nationalism and Defence Willingness: Mobilising for the Future Licence to Operate: Transparency and Responsibility in UK Offensive Cyber Power Episode 16: Latvia’s Transformation: From Laundromat to Leader Four Alternative End States in Iran – the Only Good One Becomes Unlikely Crypto Moratorium is the Right Starting Point for Political Finance Reform UN Norms: Tackling the Rise of Cyber Capabilities Speaking Without Escalating: Why the UK Needs Public Responsibility Signalling in Cyber Policy The Gulf Does Not Want This War to Continue
Operational Continuity in a Contested Energy Transition
2026-04-06 · via RUSI: Latest Publications

RUSI's Organised Crime and Policing Team recently hosted a roundtable discussion on 26 March 2026 in Brussels to examine Europe's energy system and the resilience of critical energy infrastructure under hybrid and war scenarios.

The roundtable was part of the Energy and Security Programme and the Open Climate Programme, with an emphasis on strengthening European policy and institutional engagement at the intersection of energy systems and defence resilience. 

The roundtable discussion brought together representatives from EU institutions, NATO, defence and energy industries and experts from universities and think tanks. The discussions were off the record and unattributable. 

From Asset Protection to System Resilience

Participants emphasised that threats under hybrid and war scenarios increasingly impact entire energy systems rather than individual assets. Disruptions may combine kinetic attacks, supply chain interference or cyberattacks, creating cascading effects across entire energy networks, fuel logistics and industrial activities. This acts as a threat multiplier, making it hard to identify causes and respond effectively, especially when multiple weaknesses are attacked simultaneously or repeatedly. 

Another issue identified by participants was energy supply as a basic dependency for both civilian functioning and military interoperability. Electricity and fuel form the backbone of defence industrial output, logistics and combat readiness. However, military systems remain heavily reliant on vulnerable civilian infrastructure, creating strategic dependencies that adversaries can exploit. This interconnection raises questions about whether defence-related assets and energy infrastructure should be more explicitly recognised within the EU's critical infrastructure frameworks. 

Experts noted that energy system resilience is less about preventing attacks than about maintaining functionality amid disruption. This places great emphasis on recovery capacity, including spare equipment, possible standardisation and trained personnel, as demonstrated by Ukraine's example of rapidly restoring damaged infrastructure under sustained attack.

Structural Constraints on Resilience in Europe

The discussion highlighted that Europe's current energy system is poorly configured for today's risk environment. It was engineered primarily for efficiency rather than resilience against prolonged, multiple attacks. It lacks hardened substations, underwater cables, fuel stockpiles and fast-response capacity. Industrial bottlenecks exacerbate this by blocking rapid repairs and reserve buildup, leaving systemic weak spots for adversaries to target strategically. 

In addition, the lack of manpower was emphasised, with the Ukrainian example illustrating a shortage of engineers willing to repair energy infrastructure under attack. 

A recurring theme was the lack of clarity in roles and responsibilities across institutions, regulations and sectors. Energy infrastructure development, defence planning and regulatory frameworks continue to operate under different risk assumptions and timelines. Questions remain around the definition of critical infrastructure and resilience, alongside the allocation of responsibilities between civilian and defence authorities, private businesses and operators. 


WRITTEN BY

Petras Katinas

Research Fellow in Climate, Energy and Defence

Organised Crime and Policing

View profile