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ZDNET's key takeaways

• Quantum is almost here, but organizations are not ready.
• Experts urge moving from 128-bit to 256-bit encryption ASAP.
• Another looming issue: quantum skills.

Quantum computing is making our future brighter. Quantum computing is making our future more perilous. In the spirit of quantum, both states can be true at once.

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IT professionals now face tough choices as they consider, explore, or even begin preparing for the looming quantum revolution -- along with hard deadlines. Powerful systems will execute in hours or minutes what once took years to process, and these advances are coming soon to an enterprise near you. But with that shift comes some powerful security issues. 

Not yet enterprise-ready

At least two dozen manufacturers "are now commercially offering more than 40 quantum processing units (QPUs), which are the processing hardware for a quantum computer," according to MIT's most recent Quantum Index Report. In addition, the "quantum-as-a-service model" is enabling wider access to quantum computing resources. 

Still, quantum is not quite enterprise-ready, the MIT researchers stated: "While there have been impressive advancements in performance, QPUs do not yet meet the requirements for running large-scale commercial applications such as chemical simulations or cryptanalysis."

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We are not yet at the point "when quantum computers can solve problems faster than classical computers alone," suggested a study out of the IBM Institute for Business Value. "Adapting operations, infrastructure, and partnerships as conditions change is a prerequisite for preparing for a quantum future." 

So far, early use cases include modeling complex molecular interactions and pharmaceuticals: "Impact will follow in areas such as supply chain and logistics, where quantum's optimization capabilities could redefine how goods move globally."  

Building the best defense

While the impact of quantum may be a few years away, security needs to be addressed today. Quantum, by being able to process thousands of attempts at once, will be able to break through most of today's encrypted algorithms and data stores. Tim Steward, principal data enterprise architect for Fujitsu, and author of The PostgreSQL Field Guide, warned at a recent data conference: "You assume that when something is encrypted, you're pretty much going to be safe. That's no longer the case."

Quantum power is calculated in qubits. Every 10 qubits supports 1,024 computations, giving hackers 1,024 times the power to break encryption in one swoop, Steward illustrated. There are now machines with up to 6,100 qubits in processing power, and this number keeps growing.  

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The best defense is to move from 126-bit to 256-bit encryption as soon as possible, as advised by the National Institute of Standards and Technology. This shift may help protect encryption algorithms from quantum hacking for at least the next two decades, said Steward. He said companies need to re-examine their encryption and security strategies with this approach in mind: "Be proactive. Clearly define goals for encryptions. Help your organizations recognize limitations for your encryption environment."

Estimates suggest that "by the end of this decade, a cryptographically relevant quantum computer will be capable of breaking the encryption that underpins our global economy," warned Anand Oswal, executive vice president of network security at Palo Alto Networks, in a CXOTalk hosted by Michael Krigsman.

Deprecating cryptographic algorithms 

 "Governments around the world have already started taking decisive action," said Oswal. "The EU Commission has announced plans to launch a quantum-safe communication network by 2030." Some plans, such as CNSA 2.0 mandates issued by the US National Security Agency, took effect last year. 

In addition, algorithms such as RSA and ECC "will be officially deprecated," Oswal predicted. "Their use will be discouraged and potentially flagged by many compliance tools. By 2035, these vulnerable cryptographic algorithms will be officially disallowed for most applications. That's a hard stop. After this date, any system relying on them will be considered non-compliant and fundamentally insecure by the world's largest security standards."

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This problem must not be pushed off into the future, Oswal emphasized. "Companies might already be behind schedule when we consider the reality of migration timelines," he said. "Large-scale cryptographic migrations are notoriously difficult and very time-consuming. Historical data from past transitions show that these can take between five and ten years for a large, complex enterprise to complete. And for legacy applications, and think about IoT and OT devices which have embedded firmware, an upgrade might not be feasible at all." 

Skills issues and business benefits

Another key issue is that skills may also be in short supply as quantum develops. Data cited in the MIT report indicated the demand for quantum skills has nearly tripled since 2018. The opportunities range from highly specialized jobs -- error-correction scientists or quantum algorithm developers -- to occupations requiring a range of skills, most of which are not quantum-related, such as business development for quantum computing firms.

The brighter side of quantum computing is its adoption as a corporate compute resource, which also cannot be understated. At least 82% of AI-first CEOs are already actively engaging partners in one or more quantum ecosystems to access complementary strengths, reduce risk, and accelerate learning, according to the IBM study. Almost half (46%) of CEOs already have a team in place for identifying specific quantum use cases. 

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CEOs in the IBM survey said they expect the main advantages of quantum to come from optimizing operations and accelerating complex simulations. AI is also expected to benefit, and quantum is anticipated to pave the way for new business ideas. Here's where the research suggested CEOs expect quantum computing to deliver the most business value:

• Optimizing operations, logistics, or resource allocation (48%)
• Accelerating complex simulations (45%)
• Advancing AI and machine learning capabilities (39%)
• Exploring entirely new business models or services (37%)
• Enhancing cybersecurity or encryption capabilities (32%)
• Improving research and product development timelines (30%) 

Business leaders should start exploring quantum's possibilities and issues through "a small, cross-functional exploration team with a six-month mandate to identify plausible quantum use cases, simulate value, and engage ecosystem partners," the IBM researchers advised. In addition, they should start focusing near-term technology decisions on accommodating quantum inputs: "Prioritize hybrid infrastructure, portable data architectures, and AI systems that can experiment with emerging compute models without major rework."