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It’s one milestone after another for One Nation and its increasingly popular leader, Pauline Hanson.
The latest is perhaps the most striking yet: a Resolve poll showing Hanson ahead of Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister.
While One Nation has surged before, steadily overtaking the Liberals, the Coalition, and more recently Labor on primary votes, for a maverick senator to eclipse a sitting PM as the nation’s preferred leader crosses a new psychological line.
Political purists often dismiss polling on the preferred PM because it doesn’t directly dictate who commands the House of Representatives. Nor does it account for the brutal mechanics of preferential voting, candidate quality, and the electoral map's voting patterns.
Hanson isn’t moving into the Lodge courtesy of these figures, and One Nation is not about to imminently form government either.
But dismissing this metric is a fatal misreading of the electorate's attitude right now.
Preferred PM polling is the ultimate measure of authority. It strips away party machinery and asks a visceral question: Who do you instinctively trust to speak for you?
For a sitting PM to lose this contest to a minor party populist is extremely brutal. It signals that the traditional taboo against supporting Hanson has evaporated.
Pauline Hanson has shattered the taboo that has held her back her entire career, writes political editor Peter van Onselen
Voters are no longer merely parking a faceless protest vote, they are actively identifying with the leader of the protest party over the establishment boss, the PM himself.
Dissatisfaction with Albo (sitting at 60 per cent according to Newspoll) has transformed from simple partisan disagreement to a personal rejection.
It’s hard enough for an opposition leader to move ahead of a sitting PM on the preferred PM rating. Albo has the advantage of being the incumbent, while the opposition leader hasn’t ever performed in the job, making judging their ability to do so effectively much more difficult.
When opposition leaders do move ahead of PMs on this polling indicator, it usually precedes a change of government, or the rolling of a PM by their own party. Yet it’s not Angus Taylor who is now the preferred PM over Albo, it’s a One Nation senator. It’s utterly extraordinary.
After three decades in parliament, Albo’s mastery of the system's rituals and language now looks like institutional capture.
He represents the very political class voters are rebelling against. The recent Federal Budget poured accelerant all over this anti-establishment sentiment.
Labor attempted to frame broken promises and higher taxes as sensible reform. Instead, voters saw unadulterated arrogance. You can’t campaign as a cautious trustworthy leader, then just lie to voters. One Nation is harvesting this anger, entirely on the strength of Hanson’s personal brand.
Political insiders have long consoled themselves with the delusion that Hanson is a relic of the 1990s. That view, however, is clearly obsolete.
To her critics, Hanson’s decades of being ridiculed and dragged through the court of polite opinion are disqualifying. To her supporters, however, that history is unimpeachable proof of authenticity, not to mention the tawdry way elites and insiders treat ordinary Australians.
Every lecture from the political and media class only confirms Hanson’s status as the political figure willing to say what the establishment suppresses.
For Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to lose this contest to a minor party populist is extremely brutal
This polling result captures a national mood turning hard against the major parties. The shifting primary votes have done the same, reflected in the result of the Farrer by-election too.
For the Coalition, the crisis is existential. With Taylor barely registering in the public consciousness and One Nation eating its base, the Liberal Party is being rendered irrelevant in the conversations its own voters care about most.
For Labor, the danger is also severe: Albo can no longer rely on anti-Liberal sentiment to hold the centre ground, nor can he pretend the next election will be a conventional two-party contest.
Even the mainstream centre is shifting towards Hanson’s brand of populism.
The rise of One Nation is arguably the most confronting edge of a broader electoral revolt major parties are facing. Alongside Teals, Greens, and rural independents, it proves that millions of Australians have permanently withdrawn their loyalty from the legacy parties.
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