Iran's nuclear program has remained resilient in the face of repeated US and Israeli strikes, with experts warning that Tehran still possesses the capability to produce bombs.
Vice President JD Vance has identified Iran's nuclear ambitions as the 'critical flashpoint' behind the collapse of 21–hour emergency talks in Islamabad.
Addressing the diplomatic stalemate on Sunday, Vance cited Tehran's atomic program as the core dispute that prevented an agreement between the two sides during the negotiations in Pakistan.
He said: 'The simple fact is that we need to see an affirmative commitment that they will not seek a nuclear weapon and that they will not seek the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon.'
Despite two intensive rounds of military action aimed at dismantling Iran's nuclear infrastructure, US and Israeli officials face a grim reality as the strikes have failed to deliver a knockout blow.
While recent precision raids successfully levelled research labs and warhead development facilities, along with a key site used to produce 'yellowcake' uranium, experts warn that the heart of the program remains intact.
Intelligence suggests that Iran likely retains functional centrifuges and a fortified underground enrichment site designed to withstand aerial bombardment.
Donald Trump declared a 'total and complete victory' as the US agreed a two–week ceasefire with Iran on Wednesday
JD Vance has singled out Tehran's nuclear drive as the 'primary catalyst' for the breakdown of 21–hour negotiations in Islamabad
Most critically, the UN's atomic watchdog has confirmed that Tehran still holds a stockpile of nearly 1,000 pounds of near–weapons–grade uranium, half of which is reportedly concealed in caskets deep within a tunnel network at the Isfahan nuclear facility.
Eric Brewer, a former White House official who worked on Iran during the first Trump administration, said: 'Iran is not going to trade those away easily. Its demands are going to be higher than they were during talks in February for surrendering the material.'
President Trump considered a high–stakes military operation to seize Iran's enriched uranium stockpile during recent hostilities, according to reports from The Wall Street Journal.
However, officials warn that such a mission would be 'extraordinarily complex and dangerous'.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that the removal of Iran's highly enriched uranium remains the 'top priority' for US negotiators.
Republicans also now fear they will pay at the midterms as the US remains embroiled in a foreign conflict that Mr Trump promised he would avoid.
While the fissile material is currently being monitored via satellite, with no signs of movement since last June, the diplomatic window remains precarious.
With a two–week window for diplomacy currently in effect, it remains unclear if talks in Islamabad will resume or if either side will pivot back to the military conflict that paused last Tuesday.
Mojtaba Khamenei, a hardline cleric viewed as being even more of an extremist than his father, was installed by the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
A satellite image shows smoke rising over Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's compound in Tehran after US–Israeli strikes took him out
Any lasting deal must not only neutralise the nuclear threat but also address Tehran's leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that allows Iran to 'squeeze the global economy'.
During the 12–Day War in 2025 the US deployed Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs against the Fordow and Natanz enrichment sites, while Tomahawk missiles struck the Isfahan complex.
In the recent five–week conflict, US forces focused on neutralising Iran's missile stockpiles and launchers to lower the 'cost' of future strikes.
Simultaneously, Israel targeted the 'brains' of the operation, striking labs, a university, and the Parchin military site, while reportedly targeting nuclear scientists.
Despite the bombardment, experts warn that Iran's nuclear heart may still be beating.
Tehran likely retains its centrifuges and its critical uranium stockpile, much of it hidden in a fortified tunnel complex at Pickaxe Mountain near Natanz, which may be deep enough to withstand even the most powerful US bunker–busters.
They continue to maintain its program is for peaceful purposes, though it previously offered to dilute its 60 per cent enriched uranium to 20 per cent, a move US officials view with scepticism, as the jump to weapons–grade material remains dangerously short.
While the US and Israel have achieved deep intelligence penetration, the technical expertise required to mould fissile material into a functional warhead remains the final, invisible hurdle in Tehran's decades–long nuclear ambition.