John Swinney looked set to miss his target of an SNP majority last night as voters rejected his divisive independence plans.
The final polling analysis of the election campaign put the SNP on 56 MSPs, nine short of overall control of Holyrood.
A senior SNP source said the mood was ‘realistic’ about no majority while claiming some seats appeared too close to call and an upset was still possible.
Opposition parties last night stepped up their calls for Mr Swinney to drop his plan for a ‘day one’ push for an independence referendum, which he previously said relied on an SNP majority.
The new analysis by the Mark Diffley partnership projected Reform UK would come second with 19 MSPs, narrowly edging Scottish Labour into third place on 18.
‘We think that an SNP majority is unlikely now,’ Mr Diffley said.
The Scottish Greens would have 16 MSPs, raising the spectre of them returning to power in a Nationalist alliance with the SNP.
‘If the arithmetic after this election means the Greens aren’t the swing vote in Parliament, I will be absolutely crushed,’ co-leader Ross Greer told the Mail.
John Swinney's plans for a majority of MSPs could be scuppered, new analysis suggests
The First Minister on the campaign trail ahead of Thursday's vote
The Diffley analysis, based on final polls from YouGov, Ipsos, Norstat, Survation and More in Common, forecast 11 MSPs for the Tories and nine for the Lib Dems.
If borne out by today’s count, it would mark a spectacular rise for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, which didn’t win a single seat in 2021.
It would be a record tally for the Scottish Greens, the worst ever Holyrood results for Labour and the Tories, and a modest comeback for the Lib Dems.
It could also raise questions about Mr Swinney’s shelf-life in Bute House, as he would have taken the SNP backwards in all five elections he has been leader.
He suffered reversals in Holyrood, council and European elections in his first spell in charge between 2000 and 2004 and oversaw a collapse in MPs at the 2024 general election. Another slump in support could hasten the expected SNP leadership battle between Housing Secretary Mairi McAllan and Westminster leader Stephen Flynn.
Mr Diffley said: ‘There has been a shift away from the SNP in the last slew of polls, particularly on the regional list. There will be a pro-independence majority. But the likely outcome is a minority SNP government. Tightening of the polls and a bit of tactical voting is probably the explanation.’
He said Mr Swinney’s focus on winning an SNP majority and pushing for an independence referendum could have inspired anti-SNP tactical voting.
The pollster added: ‘There was absolutely a risk of going in studs-up on a majority and the argument that would leverage another referendum.
‘The risk is you trade enthusing your base with enthusing the base of the Tories, particularly in very tight contests up in the North-East and down in the Borders.’
Based on people’s likelihood to vote, he said turnout was likely to be 50 to 55 per cent – in line with Holyrood elections before the record Covid-era figure of 63.5 per cent in 2021.
He said: ‘This is likely to be much more around the norm. It also reflects that the campaign hasn’t been particularly interesting.
‘Maybe the result is a bit of a foregone conclusion for many people.’ Pollster Luke Tryl, of More in Common, this week dubbed Holyrood the ‘meh election’, with Scots voters the least enthusiastic in the UK after 19 years of SNP rule.
Edinburgh University’s Professor Ailsa Henderson, head of the Scottish Election Study, estimated a fifth of people would vote tactically, with anti-SNP voting the most common variety.
She also believes that the final results could throw up some surprises, saying: ‘We’re looking at possible low turnout, late deciding and tactical voting – and all three of those are sources of volatility.’
Professor Henderson said if the SNP win 56 MSPs – the same number Labour won in 1999 – it would be a ‘good result’ for them after 19 years in power but it would also come with a sting in the tail.
She added: ‘It will be a disappointment to them, and makes whatever plans they had for a referendum more difficult. It will raise questions about whether they have a mandate to move forward on constitutional change.’