Housebreakers and paedophiles are set to be spared prison under soft-touch plans drawn up by advisers to the government.
The experts drafted in by Justice Secretary Angela Constance recommended effectively phasing out jail terms of up to two years.
But a Mail analysis found this would lead to hundreds of home raiders and paedophiles avoiding prison in a bid to tackle an overcrowding crisis.
The Sentencing and Penal Policy Commission was launched last year by Ms Constance.
Led by former Scottish Police Authority chairman Martyn Evans, it produced a report in February which said too many offenders are being locked up.
Its members proposed a raft of measures which would lead to thousands more prisoners being spared jail in favour of community service and electronic tags.
Scottish Government figures show 297 housebreakers were jailed in 2023/24, the most recent figures available, for up to two years.
The statistics also show 49 people were jailed for up to two years over charges relating to ‘indecent photos of children’.
Ms Constance welcomed the report at the time, saying ‘bold, collaborative action is needed to reduce reliance on custody and achieve a sustainable prison population’
The 149-page report called on ministers to explore outlawing jail terms of up to a year, ‘with limited exceptions’, and to introduce a presumption against jailing criminals for up to 24 months.
Sheriffs going against that presumption would have to provide written reasons for doing so.
It will be up to the next government to be elected on Thursday to decide whether or not to take forward the plans. But the SNP manifesto said the party will ‘invest in community sentencing as an alternative to prison ensuring it is resourced and robust’.
Ms Constance welcomed the report at the time, saying ‘bold, collaborative action is needed to reduce reliance on custody and achieve a sustainable prison population’.
She has freed hundreds of prisoners early to tackle jail overcrowding and ordered a reduction in the automatic early release threshold for prisoners serving sentences of up to four years from 40 per cent to 30 per cent.
This does not apply to short-term prisoners currently serving sentences. Some 8,864 people were jailed for up to two years in 2023/24, including 2,080 for violence and 782 for sex crimes.
The commission also said police should have the power to refer criminals to social workers.
Scottish Tory justice spokesman Liam Kerr said: ‘The Scottish Conservatives believe criminals should be properly punished for their sentences and serve them in full.
‘We would put victims back at the heart of the justice system and ensure that their needs are put above criminals who have made their lives a misery.’
An SNP spokesman said that if re-elected it would invest £1billion in the prison system in 2026/27 and progress two new prisons.
A Scottish Government spokesman said: ‘It will be for a new government to consider the detail of the comprehensive report.’