Kemi Badenoch’s Tories relishing of Sir Keir Starmer’s mounting humiliation hides an uncomfortable truth: the Conservatives remain perilously vulnerable themselves.

Fresh analysis of the local election results that triggered the crisis in No 10 suggests that, while more than half of Labour’s Cabinet would have lost their seats had the results been replicated in a general election, the Tories would have badly suffered, too.

In Essex alone, six senior Conservatives would have been wiped out, haemorrhaging votes to Reform – including Badenoch herself, shadow housing spokesman Sir James Cleverly, shadow foreign secretary Dame Priti Patel and chief whip Rebecca Harris.

The cull would spread to the West Country, where shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride would fall to the Lib Dems. Claire Coutinho, shadow energy secretary, would lose in East Surrey, as would Jesse Norman, the shadow Commons leader, in Hereford.

A senior Tory insider tells me: ‘We are revelling in Labour’s discomfort – not least because it is a distraction from the fact we are also in deep political trouble.’

In Labour’s general election manifesto there were 38 references to ending the ‘chaos’ of the Tory years. Is that another 38 broken promises? 

All things bright and bicycle...

The new Archbishop of Canterbury seems an agreeably uncomplicated sort.

Much like Boris Johnson, Dame Sarah Mullally has not allowed high office to stop her cycling around London. She simply swaps her mitre for a bicycle helmet and pedals off to the shops. At a supermarket checkout the other day, one shopper cornered her for a rather heavy discussion about morality and abortion. It gave new meaning to the term ‘unexpected item in the bagging area’.

Gordon Brown and Harriet Harman aren’t the only old duds returning to Whitehall. Dame Helen Ghosh, the original quangocrat, is back, too. Ghosh was permanent secretary at the Home Office at the start of the coalition government before Theresa May showed her the door in 2012. She later endured a bruising stint at the National Trust, becoming embroiled in a row over dropping the word ‘Easter’ from egg hunts. Now, aged 70, Labour has handed her a plush four-year sinecure chairing the Office for Environmental Protection.

Keir Starmer seems to be calling all and sundry seeking advice. Sam Tarry – partner of Angela Rayner – recently had ‘an unexpected early morning call from the Prime Minister’. He says: ‘I scarpered to make coffee so the missus could offer her counsel to the PM privately while I wondered just what would unfold over the coming days.’ What unfolded was Rayner’s own 1,000-word challenge to Starmer. ‘Keep your enemies closer’ may have its limits. 

If Andy Burnham fails to make it back to Westminster, Defence Secretary John Healey may yet emerge as Labour’s ‘sensible’ leadership candidate against EU fanatic Wes Streeting. But is Healey too dull for the job? The Washington Post last week suggested: ‘People who have shared an elevator journey with Mr Healey do not always say he is scintillating company.’ 

Lord! Red face for Black Rod 

Thank heavens last week’s State Opening of Parliament went smoothly – because the rehearsals certainly did not. During one dry run, the Lords’ Black Rod, Ed Davis, turned up without his, er, Black Rod. So when the Commons door was ceremonially slammed in his face, Mr Davis was unable to perform the traditional banging. Door-keepers had to improvise a parliamentary version of ‘knock knock, who’s there?’ before letting the former Royal Marine march in.