With only two weeks until the election, the latest poll is striking. After years of missed targets and scandals, the SNP may be on course to fall short of an outright majority - and even with the support of the Greens it might fail to secure a pro-independence majority.

A recent survey showed the SNP was on course to fall from 64 seats to 56, with Reform UK in second place on 22, Labour on 17, the Lib Dems on 14, Conservatives on 12 and Greens on eight.

But the poll by More in Common also found more than half of the 73 constituencies are considered 'marginal', meaning there is less than five percentage points between the two biggest parties and there is still 'all to play for'.

It means a slight swing to the best placed rival party could inflict many more defeats on the SNP.

However, the rise of Reform has led to the Unionist vote splintering and could end-up handing victory to the SNP - a dangerous proposition.

For if John Swinney does win 65 seats to achieve an SNP majority, the next parliament will be plunged into another constitutional quagmire. Economists have issued increasingly desperate appeals to our politicians to address the immediate crisis facing Holyrood after the election – a £5billion budget black hole.

But if the SNP wins outright, or turns again to the Greens for support, then that looming disaster will be ignored in favour of Nationalist politicking.

Unable to confront and correct his own record, unwilling to moderate his spending to fix the public finances, Mr Swinney will retreat to his comfort zone and shout for a referendum.

Many of our readers will vote according to long-held party allegiances, as is their right. Voting tactically for the party most likely to defeat the SNP will be unpalatable to some.

But supporters of the Union have a higher cause to consider. That is why the Mail has published a comprehensive guide to how pro-UK voters can stop another SNP victory next month.

It sets out the best-placed pro-Union candidate in each of Scotland’s 73 constituencies.

Produced in conjunction with the Scotland in Union campaign group, it is based on past election history, demographic data, opinion poll research and specific local knowledge.

Scotland in Union did not make a recommendation for the regional list and is instead backing voters to simply opt for their preferred pro-Union party on the peach-coloured ballot paper.

An estimated two in five voters are open to tactical voting – and thanks to our invaluable interactive guide, they will know exactly how to make that vote count.

HIGHLANDS AND ISLANDS

Argyll and Bute  

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 8,963

Second-placed 2021: Conservative

In the last election, the SNP easily retained this constituency with 49.5 per cent of all votes, with the Tories and Lib Dems almost neck-and-neck in second place. 

Against the backdrop of huge unrest about the ferries fiasco, incumbent SNP candidate Jenni Minto could face a genuine threat. 

This seat has only ever been held by the SNP or the Lib Dems and there is evidence of a resurgence by the Lib Dems in this area, which gives former MP Alan Reid the chance of a scalp.

Tactical vote: Lib Dem

Caithness, Sutherland and Ross

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 2,591

Second-placed 2021: Lib Dems

First elected in 2016 as a list MSP and then to this constituency in 2021, Maree Todd is regarded as one of the SNP’s least impressive ministerial performers. 

Earlier this month, the Minister for Drugs & Alcohol Policy demonstrated to constituents how tone deaf she is with an ill-advised April Fool’s ‘joke’ about ferry services at a time of huge disruption for families because of cancellations. 

The Lib Dems are the main rival to the SNP here, and their highly regarded candidate David Green, a close aide of the late Charles Kennedy, will believe he can achieve the modest swing required to snatch the seat back.

Tactical vote: Lib Dem

Inverness and Nairn

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 9,114

Second-placed 2021: Conservative

This seat has been an SNP stronghold with Fergus Ewing representing it and its predecessor constituency since Holyrood was created. 

But he threw a grenade into this campaign by opting to stand as an independent after becoming an arch critic of the SNP’s coalition agreement with the Greens, lack of progress on A9 and A96 dualling and the approach to single-sex spaces for women. 

Tory Edward Mountain was second in 2021 but he is standing down, and the Lib Dems established themselves as the SNP’s closest rival when Angus MacDonald won the corresponding Westminster seat in 2024, meaning Lib Dem Neil Alexander looks best placed to defeat the SNP’s Emma Roddick.

Tactical vote: Lib Dem

Moray

Incumbent party: SNP

Majority: 3,164

Second-placed 2021: Conservative

Long-serving Nationalist MSP Richard Lochhead narrowly held this seat in 2021 against a strong showing by Tory Tim Eagle but he is standing down at this election and that means the Tories have a strong chance of snatching the seat back. 

Firmly established as the SNP’s main rival since Douglas Ross defeated then SNP Westminster leader Angus Robertson in the corresponding Westminster seat at the 2017 general election, Mr Eagle will seek to unite pro-Union voters to beat the SNP’s Laura Mitchell.

Tactical vote: Conservative

Western Isles (Na h-Eileanan an Iar)

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 3,441

Second-placed 2021: Labour

This has previously been a Nationalist stronghold but recent elections indicate a resurgent Labour threatens that dominance.

In 2021, Labour secured second place and then snatched the Westminster Western Isles constituency in 2024 with a mammoth swing which saw Torcuil Crichton secure 49.5 per cent of the vote, a result that Lewis activist Donald MacKinnon will look to replicate in order to defeat Alasdair Allan.

Tactical vote: Labour

Orkney Islands

Incumbent: Lib Dem

Majority: 3,869

Second-placed 2021: SNP

He has served the Orkney Islands for nearly two decades and likeable Lib Dem Liam McArthur will look to see off any prospects of the SNP pulling off a shock. In 2021, he secured an astonishing 62 per cent of the vote, which was more than double the SNP vote.

Tactical vote: Lib Dem

Shetland Islands

Incumbent: Lib Dem

Majority: 806

Second-placed 2021: SNP

Scotland’s northernmost constituency has been a Lib Dem seat since the establishment of the Scottish parliament in 1999 but Tavish Scott’s decision to stand down in 2021 led to an extremely closely fought battle with the SNP last time round, with Beatrice Wishart narrowly holding on despite her vote declining by 19 per cent while the SNP’s soared by the same amount.

Since then, Alistair Carmichael comfortably held the Westminster seat of Orkney and Shetland in 2024, which will give Lib Dem candidate Emma Macdonald, currently leader of Shetland Islands Council, confidence she can hold off Nationalist Hannah Goodlad.

Tactical vote: Lib Dem

Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 15,861

Second-placed 2021: Conservative

Kate Forbes seemed more popular with voters in this constituency than she was with a large section of her own party, and managed to increase her vote share in 2021 to 56 per cent for a massive 15,861 majority over Tory Jamie Halcro Johnston. 

But the Deputy First Minister is standing down with Eilidh Munro taking her place.

The Lib Dems won the Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire seat, which overlaps part of this constituency, in 2024 and also comfortably won a recent local council by-election in Fort William and Ardnamurchan, making Lib Dem Andrew Baxter the best-placed pro-Union rival to the SNP.

Tactical vote: Lib Dem

WEST SCOTLAND

Clydebank and Milngavie

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 5,274

Second-placed 2021: Labour

Five years ago, the SNP’s Marie McNair was elected with a sizeable majority of 5,274 after securing 47 per cent of the vote. 

However, there were signs to concern the SNP, with its vote share declining by two percentage points while Labour’s soared by 10 percentage points, putting it firmly in second place. 

Labour’s Callum McNally, has a good chance of challenging the SNP – as long as pro-Union voters unite and are not tempted to back Reform UK’s candidate, which would boost the SNP’s prospects of holding onto the seat.

Tactical vote: Labour

Cunninghame North

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 7,776

Second-placed 2021: Conservative

This was a comfortable hold for the SNP’s Kenneth Gibson in 2021, with Tory Jamie Greene in second place. 

The latter has deserted both the Conservatives and this constituency following his defection to the Liberal Democrats. 

Labour were third in 2021 but their candidate, Labour staffer Matthew McGowan looks best placed to challenge the SNP, particularly following the success of his boss, Irene Campbell, in the nearby Westminster constituency of North Ayrshire and Arran at the 2024 general election.

Tactical vote: Labour

Cunninghame South

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 7,952

Second-placed 2021: Labour

Ruth Maguire won this seat in 2021 with more than double the number of votes than her Labour rival in second place. 

Boundary changes, together with a strong performance in overlapping Westminster seats in 2024, will boost the prospects of Labour, which is represented by former MP and current MSP Katy Clark. 

With Ms Maguire standing down, the SNP will be represented by the controversial former MP Patricia Gibson. If successful, it would mean both Cunninghame seats could be represented by a husband and wife.

Tactical vote: Labour

Dumbarton

Incumbent: Labour

Majority: 1,483

Second-placed 2021: SNP

When it comes to pro-Union tactical voting, few do it better than the constituents of Dumbarton.

Scottish Labour’s deputy leader Jackie Baillie has been representing this constituency, which includes the Faslane naval base, since the formation of the Scottish parliament and always appeals strongly to supporters of other pro-Union parties to lend her their votes.

The SNP threw everything at the seat in 2021 and came up narrowly short by just 1,483 votes and the Nationalists will push hard again with local councillor Sophie Traynor.

Any significant support for Reform UK in this seat could be enough to make it swing to the SNP.

Tactical vote: Labour

Eastwood

Incumbent: Conservative

Majority: 2,216

Second-placed: SNP

The seat with Scotland’s largest Jewish population has been by represented by Jackson Carlaw since 2016, having been a regional MSP prior to that.

While Labour might put up an argument for standing a chance in the seat, especially since it won the neighbouring Westminster seat of East Renfrewshire in 2024, Mr Carlaw’s strong local reputation marks him out as the clear candidate for pro-Union voters to rally around to defeat the SNP, which is heavily targeting the seat through its candidate, the former MP Kirsten Oswald.

Tactical vote: Conservative

Inverclyde

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 8,174

Second-placed: Labour

Another seat that has been heavily impacted by boundary changes, the SNP’s Stuart McMillan comfortably won the predecessor seat of Greenock and Inverclyde in 2021.

Labour’s Francesca Brennan is again Mr McMillan’s clear closest rival – and pro-Union voters are strongly advised to resist backing other high-profile candidates in the seat, Reform UK’s Scottish leader Lord Malcolm Offord and the Liberal Democrats’ Jamie Greene, as they could make it easier for the SNP to hold it.

Tactical vote: Labour

Paisley

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 6,075

Second-placed 2021: Labour

Labour’s Neil Bibby is seeking to oust long-serving Paisley MSP George Adam, a former SNP minister. 

He failed to eat into Mr Adam’s majority in the constituency in 2021 but established himself as the clear rival to the SNP and Labour will be heavily targeting the seat after securing successes in the two overlapping Westminster constituencies in the 2024 general election.

Tactical vote: Labour

Renfrewshire North and Cardonald

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 7,307

Second-placed: Labour

A SPLIT pro-Union vote in 2021 helped the SNP win the old seat of Renfrewshire North and West with a majority of more than 7,000 last time round with Natalie Don-Innes securing 46 per cent of the vote, ahead of Labour on 27 per cent and the Tories on 23 per cent. 

Now a new seat due to boundary changes, Labour’s Mike McKirdy looks best placed to take on the SNP’s Michelle Campbell after his party’s successes in neighbouring Westminster constituencies two years ago at the General Election.

Tactical vote: Labour

Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 7,106

Second-placed: Labour

A constituency which has undergone significant boundary changes since 2021, when the SNP’s Tom Arthur held Renfrewshire South with a 20-point lead over Labour. 

The Tories were a distant third with half of Labour’s votes, and their voters could help defeat the SNP by backing Labour’s Paul O’Kane on the constituency vote, while supporting the Tories on the regional list.

Tactical vote: Labour

Strathkelvin and Bearsden

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 11,484

Second-placed: Conservative

Another constituency where more voters supported pro-Union candidates than Nationalists in 2021, yet the SNP’s Rona Mackay secured the seat with an 11,000-plus majority. 

In 2021, the SNP were on 45 per cent, followed by the Tories on 21 per cent, Labour 18 per cent and Lib Dems 14 per cent. Scotland in Union is recommending pro-Union voters back Lib Dem candidate Adam Harley this time, particularly since Lib Dem Susan Murray gained the Westminster seat of Mid Dunbartonshire from the SNP with a majority of more than 10,000 in 2024 following a huge swing.

Tactical vote: Lib Dem 

MID SCOTLAND AND FIFE

Clackmannanshire and Dunblane

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 7,551

Second-placed: Conservative

SNP deputy leader Keith Brown is standing again after comfortably winning in 2021 with 47 per cent of the vote.

Slightly more voters backed the Tory and Labour candidates than voted for him, but because the two main pro-Union parties received a similar share of the vote each, it meant Mr Brown won with a majority of more than 7,500. Labour’s general election victory in Alloa and Grangemouth and recent polling indicates that its candidate Suzanne Graham is best-placed to challenge the SNP.

Tactical vote: Labour

Cowdenbeath

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 6,013

Second-placed: Labour

The constituency which includes the home of the former Labour prime minister Gordon Brown has been represented by the SNP’s Annabelle Ewing for a decade but she is standing down at this election.

Labour’s Fiona Sword will seek to snatch the seat back from the SNP, which is represented by local councillor David Barrett in what looks like a two-horse race.

Tactical vote: Labour

Dunfermline

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 8,664

Second-placed: Labour

A sprawling constituency which takes in most of West Fife as well as Dunfermline, it has been represented by SNP Social Justice Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville since 2016 after brief Labour control following the domestic violence conviction of former Nationalist MSP Bill Walker. Labour was a comfortable second place in 2021 and its candidate, Joe Long, looks the likeliest pro-Union challenger.

Tactical vote: Labour

Fife North East

Incumbent: Lib Dem

Majority: 7,448

Second-placed: SNP

A constituency which takes in the university town of St Andrews, the East Neuk, Cupar and an area stretching nearly as far as Glenrothes, it has been Liberal Democrat territory for a decade, represented by the party’s former leader Willie Rennie.

He is a seasoned campaigner when it comes to uniting pro- Union voters and received 20,000 more votes than the next best-placed Unionist party back in 2021.

Tactical vote: Lib Dem

Kirkcaldy

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 7,831

Second-placed: Labour

Comfortably held by the SNP’s David Torrance in 2021 with 52 per cent of the vote, this constituency – which overlaps the Westminster seat held for many years by former Labour prime minister Mr Brown – has been yellow for 15 years.

But a convincing victory in Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy by Melanie Ward at the 2024 general election has given Labour renewed hope of snatching the Holyrood seat back too.

Tactical vote: Labour

Mid Fife and Glenrothes

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 10,234

Second-placed: Labour

Education Secretary Jenny Gilruth comfortably held this seat in 2021 with an increased majority. The addition of a Reform UK candidate this time has the potential to further fragment the pro-Union vote.

Labour was comfortably second place last time round and, since then, it had success in the Westminster constituency of Glenrothes and Mid Fife in 2024, which makes it the best options for voters looking to stop the SNP.

Tactical vote: Labour

Perthshire North

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 4,053

Second-placed: Conservative

Murdo Fraser put up a good fight for the Tories in 2021, when he was within 4,000 votes of John Swinney and streets ahead of the next pro-UK candidate.

Mr Fraser will look to unite pro-Union voters again in this high-profile seat, especially since Reform UK’s candidate Kenneth Morton has made clear that he supported independence in the 2014 vote and is relaxed about the idea of another referendum.

Tactical vote: Conservative

Perthshire South and Kinross-shire

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 1,948

Second-placed: Conservative

Tory Liz Smith ran the SNP’s Jim Fairlie extremely close five years ago in a seat which is a clear two-horse race.

The long-serving Tory frontbencher is standing down, meaning it falls on former Mid Scotland and Fife MSP Roz McCall to take on Mr Fairlie, the Agriculture Minister who famously revealed that a quango had suggested tackling the scourge of seagulls by drawing ‘googly eyes’ on takeaway boxes.

Tactical vote: Conservative

Stirling

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 6,895

Second-placed: Conservative

This is a seat where the Tories have established themselves as the SNP’s closest challenger in recent times, and secured nearly a third of the votes in 2021.

Labour may have won the Westminster seat of Stirling and Strathallan in 2024 but Tory Stephen Kerr – one of the most robust MSPs at scrutinising and challenging the SNP at Holyrood – is former Nationalist MP and MEP Alyn Smith’s closest rival this time round.

Tactical vote: Conservative

NORTH EAST SCOTLAND

Aberdeen Central

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 6,594

Second-placed: Conservative

Another constituency where there is a strong pro-Union vote but split support between the Tories and Labour has let in the SNP. In 2021, Kevin Stewart won with 45 per cent of the vote, with the Tories in second on 24 per cent and Labour third on 20 per cent.

The SNP won both Aberdeen North and Aberdeen South in the 2024 general election and that, coupled with current polling trends, indicates that Labour’s Jenny Laing is narrowly SNP special adviser Jack Middleton’s closest challenger.

Tactical vote: Labour

Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 1,671

Second-placed: Conservative

Could this be the biggest SNP scalp of election day? SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn is standing for the seat and is strongly tipped to fancy his chances of being the next First Minister after John Swinney.

In 2021 the SNP’s Audrey Nicoll narrowly clung on to the seat, then named Aberdeen South and North Kincardine, as the Tories saw a surge in support which firmly established them as the closest rival to the Nationalists. Now former North East Scotland MSP Liam Kerr is in the running in the seat and the Scottish Conservative candidate has a real chance to go one step further and defeat Flynn.

Tactical vote: Conservative

Aberdeen Donside

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 9,026

Second-place: Conservative

A seat which takes in most of the area north and west of Aberdeen, Jackie Dunbar convincingly held it for the SNP in 2021 with more than half of the vote.

While the Tories were second five years ago, Scotland in Union is now recommending that Labour’s Lynn Thomson is the best challenger to Ms Dunbar this time round.

This is because Ms Thomson previously saw a direct 18 per cent swing from the SNP to Labour when she stood in Aberdeen North in the 2024 general election.

Tactical vote: Labour

Aberdeenshire East

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 1,889

Second-place: Conservative

A real oil-and-gas battlefield as the SNP’s Energy, Just Transition and Fair Work Minister Gillian Martin faces off against Scottish Tory net zero spokesman Douglas Lumsden, who has switched from Aberdeen Central to fight this seat.

Harriet Cross recorded a considerable jump in her vote share in 2021, before then being elected MP for nearby Gordon and Buchan in 2024, and Mr Lumsden is the pro-UK candidate who could secure a major scalp in this seat.

Tactical vote: Conservative

Aberdeenshire West

Incumbent: Conservative

Majority: 3,390

Second-placed: SNP

Tory MSP Alexander Burnett impressively held this seat in 2021 with an increased share of the vote despite a strong challenge from the SNP and is seeking to retain it again.

His rival this time is SNP staffer and local councillor Fatima Joji. The biggest risk to Mr Burnett retaining the seat is a sizeable vote for Reform UK, which is standing controversial candidate Jo Hart, who previously sparked outrage by branding the Royal Family as ‘benefit scroungers’ in a message which said ‘f*** the Royals’ and ‘make Lizzy the last’.

Tactical vote: Conservative

Angus North and Mearns

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 3,509

Second-placed: Conservative

Mairi Gougeon was victorious in 2021 in a clear two-horse race, securing 49 per cent of the vote to the Tories 39 per cent. It’s all change with candidates this time, with local councillor Dawn Black replacing the departing Ms Gougeon for the SNP and fellow councillor Tracey Smith standing for the Tories, in what still looks like a clear SNP/Tory battle.

Tactical vote: Conservative

Angus South

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 6,117

Second-placed: Conservative

Another SNP/Tory battleground, with Graeme Dey holding the seat in 2021 with 51 per cent of the vote, ahead of the Tories in second place with 35 per cent.

The Tories were again firmly in second place in the overlapping Westminster seat in the 2024 general election and the party’s candidate, Angus MacMillan Douglas, who was awarded an OBE for services to healthcare following his work as director of the Scottish Blood Service, is the best placed pro-Union option.

Tactical vote: Conservative

Banffshire and Buchan Coast

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 772

Second-placed: Conservative

A wafer-thin majority for the SNP’s Karen Adam in 2021 makes this a top target for the Tories, where Aberdeenshire councillor James Adams is the party’s candidate.

If pro-Union voters rally behind the Tory hopeful, they stand a good choice of defeating Ms Adam, although any significant support for Reform’s Conrad Ritchie could boost her prospects of retaining the seat.

Tactical vote: Conservative

Dundee City East

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 13,337

Second-placed: Labour

A thumping majority for Shona Robison in 2021 but change is in the air with the long-serving MSP, currently Finance Secretary and formerly Deputy First Minister, standing down.

Stephen Gethins, a former MP and Scottish Government special adviser, is looking to replace her. Labour were narrowly ahead of the Tories in second place in 2021 but now look comfortably the closest challenger, with candidate Cheryl-Ann Cruickshank.

Tactical vote: Labour

Dundee City West

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 12,919

Second-placed: Labour

One of the SNP’s most convincing victories in 2021, with Joe FitzPatrick securing 62 per cent of the vote.

Labour has a stronger candidate this time, with finance spokesman Michael Marra replacing Left-winger Mercedes Villalba, and he should provide a sterner test for the SNP, which is represented this time by Heather Anderson, who famously became an MEP for just four days in 2020 before the UK left the European Union.

Tactical vote: Labour

EDINBURGH AND LOTHIAN EAST

East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 1,179

Second-placed: Labour

Previously one of the staunchest Labour seats at Holyrood, thanks to well-attended Labour social clubs across the former mining area, this seat first went to the SNP in 2021. Paul McLennan, who proved a hapless housing minister, is now defending a small majority against Labour’s Martin Whitfield, a former lawyer and primary teacher and is a good contender to take the seat back for Labour.

It won’t hurt that local MP Douglas Alexander is co-chair of Scottish Labour’s campaign.

Tactical vote: Labour

Edinburgh Central

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 4,732

Second-placed: Conservative

IF only they could both lose, Unionists may well mutter when looking at the big names in contention. Defending the seat is the SNP’s modesty-free Constitution Secretary Angus Robertson.

Against him, in the top target for the Greens, is former co-leader Lorna Slater whose party is desperate for a first constituency win.

A strong showing by the Greens could deny Robertson victory by splitting the Nationalist vote, as happened here in 2016, when Tory leader Ruth Davidson was the surprise winner. Hoping to come through the middle in a crowded 11-candidate field is Labour city councillor James Dalgleish.

Tactical vote: Labour

Edinburgh Eastern, Musselburgh and Tranent

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 10,117

Second-placed: Labour

A NEW seat mashed together from three others, with the biggest slice out of Edinburgh Eastern. Former Scottish Government minister Ash Regan won for the SNP in 2021 but then fell out with the party over gender reform.

After failing to become party leader she defected to Alba, then left that to be an Independent.

Though credited as a powerful women’s rights advocate, she leaves behind a messy legacy.

Trying to tip-toe around it for the SNP is Edinburgh councillor Kate Campbell. Well known in Labour circles as head of the Scottish Fabians think tank, Katherine Sangster is the key pro-Union alternative.

Tactical vote: Labour

Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 11,569

Second-placed: Labour

CENTRED on Leith, this is one of the fastest growing and most painfully hipster parts of Scotland. Higher education minister Ben Macpherson is aiming for his third stint as its MSP. His majority looks good on paper, but Labour won the equivalent Westminster seat in 2024 by over-turning a bigger one.

NHS doctor Oliver Thomas is the political rookie trying to repeat the feat for Labour at Holyrood. Potentially hurting the SNP – and her own party – is loose cannon Green candidate Kate Nevens, already notorious in this election for demanding jails be abolished.

Tactical vote: Labour

Edinburgh North Western

Incumbent: Liberal Democrat

Majority: 9,885

Second-placed: SNP

A SEAT where the drama is in guessing Alex Cole-Hamilton’s margin of victory. The Scottish Lib Dem leader gained what was then Edinburgh Western in 2016 by less than 3,000 votes over the SNP. But he dug in and amassed the biggest haul in Scotland in 2021, collecting more than 25,500 votes, or 55 per cent of ballots cast.

Boundary changes have given him even more Lib Dem-friendly areas to mine. East Lothian councillor Lyn Jardine is his long-shot SNP rival, while Labour’s Irshad Ahmed is a non-starter who has been dogged by infighting and claims of selection ‘irregularities’.

Tactical vote: Liberal Democrat

Edinburgh Northern

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 11,569

Second-placed: Labour

A BLEND of three seats rooted in the plusher parts of the old Edinburgh Northern & Leith.

Although the SNP won that constituency in 2021, the council elections in 2022 saw the Lib Dems beat them in the area covered by the redrawn seat.

Next-door to Alex Cole-Hamilton’s base, this is a top target for the Lib Dems, with Edinburgh city councillor Sanne Dijkstra-Downie their candidate. Fellow councillor Euan Hyslop is running for the SNP, while Labour have turned to charity worker Eleanor Ryan-Saha after the suspension of former MSP Foysol Choudhury over alleged misconduct.

Tactical vote: Liberal Democrat

Edinburgh South Western

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 3,897

Second-placed: Conservative

FORMERLY Edinburgh Pentlands, this seat has been in Nationalist hands since 2011, when SNP bruiser Gordon MacDonald snatched it from ex-Scottish Tory leader David McLetchie.

MacDonald’s retirement from Holyrood leaves Simita Kumar, combative leader of the SNP group on Edinburgh Council, defending it. But it’s a shaky majority and Labour won the Westminster equivalent from the SNP’s Joanna Cherry, KC, in 2024.

Labour’s candidate is former EU competition lawyer Catriona Munro, who narrowly lost a council by-election last year, but now has a good shot at Holyrood.

Tactical vote: Labour

Edinburgh Southern

Incumbent: Labour

Majority: 4,022

Second-placed: SNP

Boundary changes make this a jumpy race for Labour incumbent Daniel Johnson, whose old seat has been halved and mixed with three others, including a slab of working-class Edinburgh Eastern.

He is aided by having Labour’s former Scottish Secretary Ian Murray, the party’s sole survivor of the 2015 SNP tsunami, as the area’s canny MP.

Also helping is a scandal over original SNP candidate Sally Donald, who quit over an alleged £20,000 benefits fraud and became a poster girl for Nationalist entitlement. Former Leith MP Deidre Brock is her eleventh-hour replacement.

Tactical vote: Labour

Midlothian North

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 7,906

Second-placed: Labour

THE oldest MSP who is seeking re-election to Holyrood, Colin Beattie is no stranger to controversy. As SNP treasurer he was arrested and quizzed during the police probe into the party’s finances but not charged.

His determination to stand again led to infighting and claims of using cash to sway the selection, after he promised to ensure the campaign was ‘sufficiently funded’ if he was picked as the candidate.

Taking him on is Labour policy wonk Caitlin Stott, who is buoyed by the fact the overlapping Midlothian seat at Westminster has swapped between SNP and Labour at the last four elections, with Labour winning in 2024.

Tactical vote: Labour

SOUTH SCOTLAND

Ayr

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 170

Second-placed: Conservative

A TORY stronghold, this seat was first won by the SNP in 2021 – but only barely. Siobhan Brown’s 170-vote majority is the smallest at Holyrood. The dour community safety minister now faces an uphill task defending it.

Tory challenger Sharon Dowey has plenty of voter gripes to highlight, not least anti-social behaviour in Ayr high street and the woeful ferry service from Troon in the north of the seat to Arran.

Tactical vote: Conservative

Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 4,337

Second-place: Conservative

LABOUR for the first three Scottish parliaments and SNP for the next three, this former mining seat was last represented by drugs minister Elena Whitham.

But she is quitting after a single term at Holyrood. The SNP have parachuted in Dumfries & Galloway Council deputy leader Katie Hagmann, a senior figure in local government group Cosla, as their candidate. Labour gained the Westminster seat here in 2024 from third place on a monster 20 per cent swing from the SNP. Former list MSP Carol Mochan is aiming for another win in May.

Tactical vote: Labour

Clydesdale

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 4,578

Second-placed: Conservative

SNP incumbent Màiri McAllan will be fighting extra hard to hang on in Clydesdale. The Housing Secretary is tipped as a future party leader after John Swinney’s time ends, and losing the seat would be an awkward blot on her CV.

Hoping to frustrate her is Labour’s Lynsey Hamilton, chair of education on South Lanarkshire Council. Much of the seat is within the Tory-voting Westminster constituency of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, but Labour is seen as having the best chance of upsetting McAllan’s applecart.

Tactical vote: Labour

Dumfriesshire

Incumbent: Conservative

Majority: 4,066

Second-placed: SNP

THIS huge seat, which runs from the Solway Firth north to the Ayrshire coalfields, has been won by the Tories in the last two elections, but not comfortably.

Oliver Mundell’s majority over the SNP was a tense 1,230 in 2016 and a still sweaty 4,000 in 2021. His stepping down in May sees capable Tory finance spokesman Craig Hoy stepping up in his place.

His SNP challenger is Dumfries & Galloway Council leader Stephen Thompson. Potentially helping the SNP is independence- supporting Reform UK candidate David Kirkwood, who threatens to split the vote and let Thompson snatch victory.

Tactical vote: Conservative

East Kilbride

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 8,672

Second-placed: Labour

THE SNP may be firefighting scandals Scotland-wide, but Labour also has a few as well. In East Kilbride, MP Joani Reid recently gave up the Labour whip after her husband was arrested on suspicion of spying for China.

Lurid claims about her private life followed. But the eyebrow- raising headlines haven’t deterred Labour candidate Joe Fagan, energetic leader of South Lanarkshire Council.

His SNP opponent is lacklustre incumbent Collette Stevenson, who was last year reportedly put on a list of deadwood MSPs by senior SNP figures.

Tactical vote: Labour

Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire

Incumbent: Conservative

Majority: 6,863

Second-placed: SNP

MAKING up most of the Border with England and home to the historic market towns of Hawick, Jedburgh and Kelso, this vast seat knows the value of the Union.

Liberal Democrat-held for two terms, it has been in Conservative hands since 2007.

Scottish Tory deputy leader Rachael Hamilton is the incumbent fighting for a third term as its MSP. Her SNP opponent is arch Nationalist John Redpath, founder of Yes Berwickshire, who says a majority of SNP and Green MSPs at Holyrood would be a mandate for another referendum.

Tactical vote: Conservative

Galloway and West Dumfries

Incumbent: Conservative

Majority: 2.635

Second-placed: SNP

THE southernmost seat in Scotland has been Tory for most of devolution, with the SNP only winning it once in 1999.

But the Conservative wins since have never been easy, with majorities always below 3,500 and once below 100. So former farmer Finlay Carson is going flat out in his re-election campaign.

A key issue is the SNP failure to upgrade the A75, the east-west lifeline between Stranraer and Dumfries.

Plodding SNP loyalist Emma Harper is his challenger, while Reform’s Senga Beresford, who has backed Tommy Robinson and the deporting of British Muslims, risks splitting the anti-SNP vote.

Tactical vote: Conservative

Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 4,582

Second-placed: Labour

THE scene of the only by-election in the last Scottish parliament, it was won in 2021 by the SNP’s much-missed Christina McKelvie. Her death from cancer last year saw her party lose by 602 votes to Labour’s Davy Russell in a major upset for John Swinney.

The contest also marked the arrival of Reform in Scottish politics, as the party came a close third. The likeable Russell, who seemed to win by knowing all of Hamilton, is standing again. SNP apparatchik Alex Kerr, the party’s national secretary, is his Nationalist challenger.

Tactical vote: Labour

Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 11,681

Second-placed: Labour

A SEAT that has endured two of the biggest non-entities yet seen at Holyrood, Labour’s Margaret Jamieson and SNP backbencher Willie Coffey. With Coffey standing down, the SNP are fielding the area’s ex-MP Alan Brown, who lost to Labour at the general election after a crushing 22 per cent swing against him.

Labour’s choice is globe-trotting Killie boy Ewan McPhee, a former policy adviser in Brussels and to the New Zealand government. A diverse CV also includes a stint as a charity volunteer in Uganda living on £1 a day.

Tactical vote: Labour

Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 6,826

Second-placed: Conservative

ALTHOUGH large parts of the seat, which includes Galashiels and Melrose, are represented by a Tory MP, so far it has always been Liberal Democrat or SNP-held at Holyrood. Since 2011, the formidable Christine Grahame has been its MSP, but she is stepping down after 27 years in parliament.

Hoping to replace her is Calum Kerr, who lasted two years as a local MP before voters kicked him out in 2017. The Conservative candidate is former Borders councillor and businessman Keith Cockburn, who has been campaigning against plans for a 96-kilometre pylon line through the Borders.

Tactical vote: Conservative

GLASGOW

Glasgow Anniesland

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 6,588

Second-placed 2021: Labour

DONALD Dewar’s old stomping ground has been SNP since 2011 – but only just. The Nationalists’ unassuming Bill Kidd first won the seat by just seven votes. He then built that to almost 7,000. However, Labour’s Patricia Ferguson gained the equivalent Westminster seat from the SNP at the last general election.

Now her staffer, Glasgow City Councillor Eunis Jassemi, is aiming to repeat her victory at Holyrood. With Kidd standing down, the SNP has turned to his aide Colm Merrick, an East Renfrewshire Councillor, to fend off Labour’s challenge.

Tactical vote: Labour

Glasgow Baillieston and Shettleston

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 8,025

Second-placed 2021: Labour

LARGELY the former Glasgow Shettleston seat, this constituency was won for three elections by the SNP maverick and later Independent MSP John Mason.

His exit in May sees former Glasgow East MP David Linden attempting a comeback for the SNP, no doubt hoping the sex scandal over his cousin Jordan Linden in nearby Lanarkshire doesn’t deter voters.

Labour veteran Pauline McNeill, the party’s justice spokesman, is her party’s choice to deny him victory. Reform leading light Thomas Kerr is also standing here and risks splitting the Unionist vote.

Tactical vote: Labour

Glasgow Cathcart and Pollok

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 10,396

Second-placed 2021: Labour

WITH the Glasgow region shrinking from nine seats to eight, Cathcart and Pollok is another heavily redrawn constituency. The dominant Cathcart part was won by SNP controversialist James Dornan in 2011 and held twice. His exit sees city councillor Zen Ghani, a former aide to Nicola Sturgeon, step up for the Nationalists.

Having twice failed to beat Sturgeon in next door Glasgow Southside, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar has chosen this seat to mount what could be his last run for Holyrood.

Tactical vote: Labour

Glasgow Central

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 5,458

Second-placed 2021: Green

ANOTHER massively redrawn seat that ranges from Govan on the south of the Clyde, over the river into the city centre and the East End. Its largest chunk comes from the old Glasgow Kelvin constituency.

The SNP has won Kelvin since 2011. But its winner in 2021, Kaukab Stewart, is moving seats, clearing the way for former Nationalist MP Alison Thewliss to make a bid for Holyrood.

In years past, the Greens would have been her main headache. But the boundary changes have wrecked Green hopes, and Labour’s Vonnie Sandlan is the best candidate to deny Thewliss, a close ally of Nicola Sturgeon, another job in politics.

Tactical vote: Labour

Glasgow Easterhouse and Springburn

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 7,230

Second-placed 2021: Labour

SNP business minister Ivan McKee is hoping for re-election in the successor to his Glasgow Provan seat. He had a winning margin of more than 7,000 in 2021, but major boundary changes make the arithmetic harder to fathom at this election.

Labour’s Maureen Burke took the overlapping Westminster seat of Glasgow North East from the SNP on a solid 12-point swing in 2024. Paul Sweeney, one of Labour’s sharpest MSPs in the last parliament, is his party’s candidate and knows the area well, having been its MP from 2017 to 2019.

Tactical vote: Labour

Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 5,458

Second-placed 2021: Green

SNP backbencher Bob Doris is hoping to be re-elected in a redrawn seat replacing his more working-class Maryhill and Springburn. The new constituency is mostly the old Kelvin one, taking in the student-saturated area around Glasgow University and the West End.

The Greens are a strong presence and are standing one of their six constituency candidates here.

Iris Duane’s bid could eat into the SNP vote. Hoping that works in his favour is Labour’s James Adams, a city councillor and director of RNIB Scotland.

Tactical vote: Labour

Glasgow Southside

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 9,456

Second-placed 2021: Labour

WITH Nicola Sturgeon leaving Holyrood, her Glasgow Southside seat is up for grabs. In theory, SNP candidate Kaukab Stewart – infamously photographed in front of a ‘decapitate terfs’ sign at a trans rights rally in the city –should be in pole position.

But boundary changes have brought in three wards where the Greens are exceptionally strong, making this their second-top target in Scotland. Local Green councillor Holly Bruce could well split the Nationalist vote.

Her candidacy gives council Labour group leader Rashid Hussain more than a fighting chance, despite him being brought in at the last minute after Labour’s first choice, Mo Ameen, was charged with fraud.

Tactical vote: Labour

Rutherglen and Cambuslang

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 5,166

Second-placed 2021: Labour

FORMER children’s minister Clare Haughey is trying for her third term as an MSP in a seat that is nominally part of Glasgow but actually sits in South Lanarkshire.

Unfortunately for her, her majority is one of the SNP’s smallest in the region. Scottish Labour also has its tail up.

After winning the Westminster by-election in Rutherglen and Hamilton West from the SNP in 2023, new MP Michael Shanks comfortably held Rutherglen in the general election and is now UK energy minister.

Labour’s outspoken candidate is Monica Lennon, who gave Anas Sarwar a run for his money in the party’s Scottish leadership contest in 2021.

Tactical vote: Labour

CENTRAL SCOTLAND AND LOTHIANS WEST

Airdrie

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 5,468

Second-placed 2021: Labour

WITH opposition parties lining up to attack the SNP’s grim record on the NHS, Health Secretary Neil Gray is facing a gruelling contest here. As well as the former MP having to defend his own efforts since switching from Westminster to Holyrood in 2021, the seat has a rollercoaster history of moving between the SNP and Labour.

At the 2024 general election, it was Labour’s turn to wrestle it away from the Nationalists on a thumping 16 per cent swing. Anas Sarwar’s party is hoping newcomer Suzanne MacLeod can mirror that win at Holyrood.

Tactical vote: Labour

Almond Valley

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 12,130

Second-placed 2021: Labour

Justice Secretary Angela Constance won the area around Livingston with more than twice her main rival’s vote share in 2021.

But she’s been under fire for misleading Holyrood over grooming gangs and the emergency release of 1,000 prisoners to cope with the SNP’s overcrowding crisis. She also faces one of Scottish Labour’s better new candidates, Jordan Stokoe, a former SFA linesman whose mother died from lung cancer amid long NHS waits, giving him a powerful story to tell about health service reform.

Tactical vote: Labour

Bathgate

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 10,105

Second-placed 2021: Labour

A new constituency based on the old seat of Linlithgow – but minus Linlithgow. Transport Secretary Fiona Hyslop steadily increased the SNP’s majority over three elections. But she is standing down, leaving West Lothian councillor and piano tutor Pauline Stafford to try to defend the seat for the Nats.

Challenging her is Labour novice Jenny Young, also a former teacher, who says she is standing to stop pupils being let down by the SNP. The forlorn state of Bathgate’s shopping streets is a big local issue.

Tactical vote: Labour

Coatbridge and Chryston

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 9,437

Second-placed 2021: Labour

A SEAT where the SNP’s chickens are coming home to roost. MSP Fulton MacGregor has been anonymous since winning in 2016, but the local SNP has made headlines galore.

Jordan Linden, ex-leader of North Lanarkshire Council and one of MacGregor’s former allies, was recently convicted of ten sexual offences against young men over a decade. He is due to be sentenced just two days before polling.

Linden’s staffer Tracy Carragher, a local councillor, has been axed as a Holyrood candidate over the scandal. Labour’s Kieron Higgins, a savvy former Scotland Office special adviser, is looking to capitalise on the SNP disarray.

Tactical vote: Labour

Cumbernauld and Kilsyth

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 9,841

Second-placed 2021: Labour

A GLASGOW-facing seat on the edge of North Lanarkshire thanks to the commuter towns around Croy railway station.

The SNP’s Jamie Hepburn has won three times in a row, building his majority each time. But last year the Nationalist politician blotted his copybook by getting in a bizarre row at Holyrood with Douglas Ross about seagulls.

After being accused of grabbing and swearing at the former Tory leader, he quit as minister for parliamentary business and apologised.

His usual Labour opponent, Mark Griffin, has switched seats. Griffin’s staffer, Cumbernauld councillor James McPhilemy, will take on Hepburn instead.

Tactical vote: Labour

Falkirk East and Linlithgow

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 7,585

Second-placed 2021: Labour

THE previous Falkirk East seat with Linlithgow tagged on, this constituency on the Firth of Forth remains dominated by the Grangemouth petrochemical works and questions over its future.

Scotland’s last oil refinery closed here last year, despite UK Labour’s vow to save jobs. The SNP’s promise of a ‘just transition’ from fossil fuel to green industries has proved just as unreliable. The election could be a referendum on both parties.

The SNP’s admirably blunt Michelle Thomson is stepping down and former local MP Martyn Day is taking her place. Falkirk councillor and social worker Siobhan Paterson is his Labour opponent.

Tactical vote: Labour

Falkirk West

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 11,839

Second-placed 2021: Labour

ANOTHER seat where the SNP has been rocked by scandal, Falkirk West had been held by party veteran Michael Matheson since 2007.

His electoral sparkle vanished after he quit as health secretary in 2024 for trying to charge taxpayers £11,000 for an iPad bill run up by his sons watching football on holiday in Morocco.

Trying to hang on for the Nationalists is Falkirk councillor Gary Bouse. Attempting to overcome the SNP’s daunting lead is Labour’s Paul Godzik, a former Edinburgh councillor who grew up in the Denny part of the constituency.

Tactical vote: Labour

Motherwell and Wishaw

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 7,813

Second-placed 2021: Labour

ONCE the political home of Labour first minister Jack McConnell, Motherwell and Wishaw has been SNP since Clare Adamson won it for the Nationalists in 2016.

The less-than-dynamic chair of Holyrood’s constitution committee in the last parliament, Adamson is defending the seat again after seeing off a series of Labour hopefuls down the years.

Her Labour rival this time is Motherwell councillor Ayeshah Khan, a qualified yoga teacher and founder of the Health and Wellness Hub, a respected anti-poverty charity in the former steel town.

Tactical vote: Labour

Uddingston and Bellshill

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 5,306

Second-placed 2021: Labour

ONE of many parts of the Central Belt to flip from SNP to Labour at the general election, Uddingston and Bellshill is set to be another tight race in May. The SNP’s losing MP in the equivalent Westminster seat in 2024, Steven Bonnar, returns as the reheated Nationalist candidate.

His opponent is one of Scottish Labour’s smoother MSPs, Mark Griffin. He previously tried in vain to win in Cumbernauld and Kilsyth and has now moved south with hopes of overturning one of the SNP’s smallest leads in Central Scotland.

Tactical vote: Labour