All eyes will be on Micheál Martin and Mary Lou McDonald as the countdown to the dreaded by-elections continues.

The Dublin Central and Galway West by-elections will take place on Friday, May 22 and while they'll be trying to put a brave face on it, behind the masks the leaders of Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and Labour are steeling themselves for turmoil.

In contrast, optimism is high within the Social Democrats and Independent Ireland parties that they may pull off big wins.

Mr Martin comfortably saw off post-fuel protest discontent among his backbenchers, and will be hoping the difficulties of his rivals will divert his internal critics.

But unease within the party remains high, as the Taoiseach knows his leadership will be dragged firmly back under the spotlight if FF suffers another election debacle.

One senior party source told the Irish Mail on Sunday: 'Like Fine Gael, we would settle for mid-table mediocrity. But if we are detached from the herd, down with People Before Profit and the Greens and the rest of the 2,000-vote merchants, trouble will flare up.'

A FF TD added: 'Most of those at the protests were our voters and a smattering of Fine Gael. If they perform respectably and we take the hit, there'll be trouble.

'None of this is settled. The poison is still in the blood and if a Fianna Fáil candidate loses their deposit and [convicted criminal and Dublin Central candidate] Gerry Hutch is carried out shoulder high, the whole thing will go off.'

Intriguingly, despite their status as election 2024 poll-toppers in both Galway West and Dublin Central, unease is also high in Sinn Féin over its prospects.

SF sources said the party remains 'spooked' by the presence of Hutch - who confirmed yesterday that he will stand - in what they regarded as their stronghold of Dublin Central. 

And this nervousness accelerated after the party rejected the high-profile scoliosis campaigner Gillian Sherratt in favour of local councillor, Janice Boylan.

Ms Boylan ran with leader Mary Lou McDonald in her home constituency in 2024, but received just 1,257 votes, ending up third-last on the first count. And while McDonald topped the same poll, her first preference vote of 19.5 per cent was significantly down on the 'Bertie-style' 35.7 per cent that she secured in 2020. 

A source noted: 'It is an extraordinary state of affairs. There is no doubt that, for Mary Lou and the party leadership, Gillian Sherratt was the prize candidate. Normally, Sherratt would be nominated by acclamation - that was a message from the grassroots.'

'There is no doubt [Sinn Féin leadership] are spooked by Hutch. He is the main man in the sort of flats where the SF core vote used to be.'

Another source warned: 'It would be bad enough to lose to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael; it would be far worse to lose to Hutch or the Social Democrats.

'There is now a lot of unease, and no SF surge. The country is in a state of pure anger with all the conventional parties and, increasingly, Sinn Féin is seen as one of those.'

Referring to the united left movement that propelled Catherine Connolly into the Áras, they added: 'People are wondering, when is the Connolly dividend coming? They haven't seen much sign of it so far.

'Fifteen per cent spoiled their votes in the [presidential] election. They are Hutch's for the taking.' 

The main opposition party is also fretting about its chances in Galway West, where sitting TD Mairead Farrell topped the poll in 2024 - particularly if Independent Ireland is able to harness the local anger over soaring fuel costs.

'If we lose out to Independent Ireland, serious questions will be asked,' a party source said.

There is significant interest in how Independent Ireland candidate Noel Thomas will perform in the wake of the fuel protests.

One source close to the party said: 'He is like the fatted calf. Huge resources are going into him. If he doesn't succeed, a lot of eyes will turn towards the leadership.'

Meanwhile, all the main parties are nervous about the prospect of Gerry Hutch being elected to the national parliament.

They persist in being publicly dismissive of the alleged gang boss's chances, but one Coalition source noted: 'Privately, they are uneasy. What the establishment doesn't recognise is that the run in 2024 was a bit of a frolic, a diversion if you like. This time it is more like a well-planned heist.'

One Dublin Central councillor noted: 'Like the Catherine Connolly election, there will be elements of a punishment vote. It is just question of where will it go? He [Hutch] could be the Catherine Connolly. He is a creature of the TikTok age, a sort of Robin Hood.

'RTÉ can lecture all they want about the evils of Hutch, but you are talking about an area that has been serially disenfranchised for generations. They aren't listening. Many barely know RTÉ exists.'

'Everyone from Bertie to Paschal has failed this community. They all walked away leaving it worse than it was before. Now the community is seeking a reckoning.'

Another senior inner-city politician colourfully commented: 'The city is failing, the centre is not holding. There is a vacuum, there are no political giants. It is almost like Gotham City and this fellow Hutch is the Joker.'

The by-elections are also set to serve up an intriguing battle between the two centre-left parties. Within Labour, concern is accelerating that the Social Democrats could secure a by-election double as part of a long-term strategy to 'take out' the older party.

The Social Democrats are expected to contest strongly in Dublin Central, where Daniel Ennis is emerging as the anti-Hutch candidate. 

And at the opposite end of the M6 motorway, senior party figures believe a second seat gain is possible with the choice of a Connemara-based Irish speaking candidate, Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich.

Social Democrats' Wicklow TD Jennifer Whitmore told the MoS: 'It is significant. She is a Connemara gaeilgeoir, and Connemara supports its own.'

Ms Whitmore said the fact her party is 'very transfer friendly' could also be 'critical'.

A senior political figure in Galway said: 'No-one can call it. Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin are in rag order. Anyone from Thomas Welby to Mike Cubbard to Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich could win.'

Significantly, a win for the Social Democrats in one or both elections would see them leapfrog Labour as the biggest left-wing party.

A Social Democrats double would be a major blow for Ivana Bacik, who ironically became the leader following her by-election win in Dublin Bay South, just eight months prior to the fall of her predecessor Alan Kelly.

One Labour source noted: 'Ivana is very pleasant, but the Ivana brand does not travel well outside Dublin Bay South. Don't forget; Ivana took the job by the sword and, well, those who rise by the sword tend to fall by the sword.'

The early by-election favourites are Galway councillor Noel Thomas standing for Independent Ireland and Dublin Social Democrat Daniel Ennis but, writes JOHN DRENNAN, there are no certainties in either race.