In 'Makerfield', even the name of the constituency captures the inherent duplicity of what is going on.

It might sound like some rustic idyll out of Thomas Hardy and is certainly more evocative than Wigan South-West (which is what it is). But it hasn't been a place since Norman times.

While the town of Ashton-in-Makerfield sits inside the constituency, neighbouring Ince-in-Makerfield is not in 'Makerfield' at all.

Here, we have a sitting MP standing down less than two years into the job, claiming he wants 'change', while making no mention of his grubby role in a character-assassination scandal that ended his spell as a junior minister and has snuffed out his own long-term political prospects.

Josh Simons now hopes to be remembered – not as a spivvy failed practitioner of the dark arts – but as the hero who cleared a path for Andy Burnham's vaulting ambition.

The Mayor of Greater Manchester – the same man who had promised his city that he was staying for a third term – now explains that he is standing to be MP for Makerfield because he loves and knows this area. Oh, and he's all for 'change' too, in the form of a little extra spending and a few non-specific nudges to the Left.

I am finding that while many in the area like what he has done with Manchester's bus service, they recoil at the patronising assumption that they should hand Mr Burnham a free ticket to Westminster and, with it, the keys to Downing Street. 'I quite like Andy and we were always Labour in our house,' says cladding engineer Eric Cotton, who is out shopping in Ashton, the largest town in the constituency.

'But I've gone to Reform now. I've worked hard all my life and now all the taxes we pay for other people to live on benefits – it feels like they're taking the Mickey. The buses might be good under Andy but I'm still sticking to my guns.'

It is a widespread sentiment here. Mr Burnham has his ardent fans. 'He's great and he's what Labour should be,' says special-needs mentor Johanne Astley.

But even his supporters accept that he has taken a major gamble and may end up letting Nigel Farage's Reform army capture both Makerfield and the mayoral office which Mr Burnham will be vacating.

Mr Mayor is in no mood to chat. No sooner has Mrs Burnham assured waiting reporters through the intercom that Mr Burnham is 'not at home' than he steps out of their handsome Victorian home near Haydock Park racecourse in his running kit. He jogs off down the road but it's not the most demanding of exercise regimes. He returns 50 minutes later at the wheel of a silver VW Golf.

I go in search of Mr Simons and find him outside his office in a snazzy canalside development in Wigan delivering a video message to a local music station. He explains that he is stepping aside because he is fed up with the Establishment, citing problems with sorting out flooding and a new road in the constituency.

He even takes aim at the monarchy. 'We've had an illegal toxic waste dump on land partly owned by the King and what I've found is that Whitehall and Westminster have often been the barrier to getting those things done, which is mad.' Britain, says the Cambridge and Harvard-educated former public schoolboy, 'needs a Left-wing boldness'.

Later on, I visit the 'royal' toxic dump at Bickershaw. It is a terrible mess which has only ended up with the Duchy of Lancaster – which belongs to the King – by default because the owner has disappeared and all Lancashire land without title reverts to the Duchy. It's noteworthy that Mr Simons wants to make it a resignation issue.

We are just yards from the old coal jetty which George Orwell immortalised in The Road To Wigan Pier, his study of early 20th- century working-class deprivation. Mr Simons certainly illustrates how far Wigan – and Labour – have travelled since then.

He turns very sour on discovering that the Daily Mail has turned up and tells me that I am not allowed to record him speaking. His assistant then orders me to leave and not to ask any questions. This reveals an interesting degree of both arrogance and entitlement given that I am in a public place watching an MP speaking to the media. I decline the instruction.

Mr Simons, we should recall, is the ex-minister who commissioned a report into the private lives and religious beliefs of pesky Sunday Times journalists who had been asking awkward questions about his think-tank.

He even reported them to the intelligence services, suggesting possible links with Russian spookery. After it all blew up in his face three months ago, his attempts to explain himself made things even worse and turned out to be not entirely true. He eventually resigned. 'This is a massive moment for my constituents,' Mr Simons continues in his oration to Greater Hits Radio Manchester.

'It could change the course of history.' He adds that it has been a joint decision with his wife and that 'we have decided the sacrifice is worth it'.

He refuses to answer any further questions as he walks swiftly back inside his office, though he does give me a categoric 'No' when I ask him if he will be heading for the House of Lords, should a future Prime Minister Burnham offer him a thank-you peerage.

Mr Burnham's future now rests on the generosity of the electorate of Makerfield and also the strategy of Nigel Farage who has pledged to 'throw everything' at this seat. It feels noticeably different from Gorton and Denton, another Greater Manchester suburb which saw that epic recent showdown between Reform, Labour and the Greens.

That was a seat with sizeable student and Muslim communities which coalesced in favour of the Greens. Makerfield is overwhelmingly what used to be called 'white working class'. On paper, that favours Reform which did very well here in the latest local elections.

'You can't have my full name because people say they're racist but I'm for Reform,' says Joyce.

'I'm getting a Reform coat for the dog,' says online evangelist Lorese Attree, a view shared with her carer husband, Wayne.

'They always used to say a donkey in a red rosette would win here but we've had enough of immigration and the cost of living,' says retired maintenance worker, Brian Hill. 'It's Reform.'

This is a small, densely populated seat deep in the heart of rugby league country – though one-time rugby union giants Orrell are here, too.

Ashton is bustling. There is a more forlorn feel to the other main district, Hindley, boyhood home of George Formby. Half the high street is shuttered. It feels more Lancastrian than Mancunian, with cricket pitches and pubs with names like 'Bird 'I'th Hand' and 'Summat To Ate'.

What are Mr Burnham's prospects here? 'I like Andy. He's been a good Mayor, he was a good MP before in Leigh and he's what Labour need to take it forward,' says warehouse operator, Warren Coulton, leaving the vape shop on Atherton Road.

So, a vote in the bag for Labour? 'Oh no. Reform are on the rise round here. I voted for them in the locals and I'll do it again.'

Right now, this made-up constituency looks very much like Makeorbreakerfield for Mr Burnham – and, quite possibly, for Sir Keir Starmer and the rest of us.