Two years is an eternity in politics, just ask outgoing UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Less than 24 months ago, he was the saviour of British Labour. He dragged the party out from the Jeremy Corbyn-led wilderness, smashed the Conservatives, and walked into Downing Street with a generational majority. A five year term lay ahead. The Tories were shattered, and Reform UK looked like a noisy protest party rather than a governing alternative.

Starmer was boring, to be sure, but after the rolling chaos of Brexit, Boris Johnson and those who followed him into Number 10, boring was the point. Now Starmer is on the way out. A prime minister elected in a landslide has effectively been dispatched by his own side before even reaching the halfway mark of the term he was meant to dominate.

Australia's next federal election is not due until midway through 2028. In the current political environment, that’s a lifetime away. Anything can happen between now and then, and Anthony Albanese, Angus Taylor and Pauline Hanson all know it.

Albo secured a second term with a thumping majority. A depleted Coalition continues to argue with itself over whether to modernise or retreat into pure nostalgia. In theory, the PM should be comfortable, but the reality isn’t so simple, even if Labor still has the whip-hand.

Albo's personal dissatisfaction level sits at 60 per cent. Voters re-elected Labor without granting it a blank cheque or falling back in love with its leader. The public mood is sour, impatient, and volatile, no doubt helped along by flagrant broken election promises and policy backflips highlighting government incompetence.

But will these failures even be remembered two years from now? Or will they solidify to a point where Albo’s prime ministership becomes as untenable as Starmer’s did?

One Nation is no longer a protest parked on the periphery of Aussie politics. It has surged into the centre of the national conversation, with Hanson overtaking Albo as preferred prime minister in recent polling, if you can get your head around that. In most surveys, One Nation’s primary vote now eclipses both major parties, comfortably so with the Coalition.

This doesn't mean Hanson is about to become PM, nor that One Nation can smoothly convert anger into a serious tilt at government. But the old assumptions are well and truly dead. The Coalition can no longer assume conservative voters will eventually come home. Labor can’t assume disaffected voters will stop short of backing Hanson out of fear either.

Britain offers a warning, but not a template for Australia. The electoral systems are very different versions of the Westminster model. First-past-the-post voting, as operates in the UK, can turn a modest national vote into a landslide, or even allow a challenger like Reform UK to break through instantly by topping polls in the right constituencies. Australia’s preferential voting system changes the math.

It asks not just who voters like most, but who they despise least. That’s a harder mountain to climb for a party like One Nation, which is not to say that it won't. Only that it's a challenge lying ahead.

Hanson can secure massive first preference numbers and still fall short if Labor, Greens, teals, and moderate Liberals put her last on their how-to-vote cards. Labor has already committed to doing so. Liberal moderates may follow suit, regardless of directives from head office.

In suburban seats, openly backing Hanson has historically been electoral poison for Liberals trying to win back voters lost to independents. One Nation may be strong enough to destroy the Coalition's old base without being able to replace it in government. It can win seats, shape the agenda, and perhaps even become the official opposition. But winning a plurality is not enough in Australia - you have to survive preference distribution.

Yet the major parties can't necessarily rely on the system to save them. Electoral mechanics channel public anger, they do not abolish it. If enough voters remain furious for long enough, they will force the system to hear them. At the moment that's what's happening. But will it solidify over the coming 18 to 24 months - or will it dissipate?

Starmer did not lose office because he lacked a majority, nor because the Conservatives were strong. He fell over because authority evaporates the moment voters stop listening and colleagues start panicking.

That’s happening right now to Angus Taylor. Is it on the cards in the near future for Albo too? Probably not.

Albo has power, but the public is certainly restless. He has a big majority, but little enthusiasm. And the ‘Fire the Liar’ campaign has the potential to become a well-worn saying and attitude by the time the next election comes around.

Taylor is the one facing an existential threat, alongside the Nationals who are on the frontline. The Liberal leader may not survive to the next election. The odds probably are that he won’t. His party is besieged by Hanson on the right and teals in the centre. Copying One Nation confirms Hanson as the original and the Coalition as a pale imitation. Resisting her risks alienating the conservative base even further.

Two years ago Starmer looked like a long term prime minister. Today he’s a cautionary tale. In two years from now, Albo could recover, Hanson could peak, or Taylor could be gone altogether. Anything is possible. One Nation might become the official opposition after the next election, or the Coalition could collapse entirely, with the Nationals wiped out.

Politics is moving faster than the institutions built to contain it. Voters are arguably angrier than ever before. The two party system is certainly facing its greatest ever test. Leaders who look secure can suddenly look finished in record time, and movements dismissed as mere protests can rapidly become alternative governments.

The lesson from Britain is not that Australia will follow the exact same path. It’s that nobody should pretend that they know what will happen next.