Keir Starmer has told close friends he intends to stand down as Prime Minister and set out an orderly timetable for his departure.
A member of the Cabinet told me late yesterday afternoon: ‘Keir understands the political reality.
‘He realises the current chaos is unsustainable. He simply wants to be able to do it in a dignified way and in a manner of his own choosing. He will set out a timetable.’
According to another Cabinet source, it is still unclear precisely when that announcement will be made. Some senior Starmer allies have been urging him to hold off making any statement until the first polls and canvassing data is returned from the Makerfield by-election.
‘Morgan McSweeney [the PM’s former chief of staff] has been urging him to hang on. He’s arguing if they show a tight contest or that Andy is on course to lose, then there is still a chance,’ the minister claimed.
But one of the Prime Minister’s Cabinet supporters told me: ‘He’s not going to take the risk of waiting for the result of the by-election. That would be too much of a personal humiliation. If he waits and then Burnham wins, it looks as if he’s driven him out of office.’
Ironically, the announcement from Sir Keir could potentially undermine the Manchester mayor’s bid to return to Westminster. According to one senior ally, the preference within the Burnham camp is for Starmer not to make any pronouncement prior to the poll in Makerfield on June 18. ‘It is a much cleaner contest if Keir Starmer is on the ballot. Andy needs to be able to say, “If you vote for me I will go down to Westminster and drag him out of Downing Street for you.”’
A spokesman for the Burnham team stated they were ‘relaxed’ about whether Sir Keir announces a timetable. ‘That’s a matter for the PM. We’re concentrating on making Andy’s case for selection as the candidate for Makerfield.’
But another Burnham ally told me: ‘We don’t want the message to get complicated. It’s far simpler if we’re in a position to say, “You’re frustrated by the pace of change. Vote for Andy and you’ll see an immediate change at No 10”.’
Throughout the week, Starmer’s mood – and the mood among his key advisers – has fluctuated wildly. On Monday evening, as a wave of resignations from junior ministers rocked the Government, the Prime Minister started to recognise he would need to bow to the inevitable.
Throughout the week, Starmer’s mood – and the mood among his key advisers – has fluctuated wildly
He reached out to a number of senior ministers to gauge their views, and start to map out an orderly way forward. But a series of aggressive briefings against him – especially from allies of Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood – provoked a furious reaction from Sir Keir and his allies.
‘His view was, “I’m trying to do the decent thing here and they’re all trying to f*** me over,”’ said a source. The following morning Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister, Darren Jones, was despatched on to the media round to begin to plough the road for a possible resignation announcement. ‘I’m not going to get ahead of any decision the PM may or may not take,’ he told Sky News.
But then before his next interview the position had changed. ‘Darren got a call from No 10,’ a Government adviser told me. ‘They said, “Change your line. We’re digging in”.’
For the next 48 hours, Starmer was fortified by a burning sense of betrayal directed towards senior members of his Cabinet. Top of the list was Mahmood, whose close ally Josh Simons had boosted the insurrection of Labour MPs with an article in The Times stating: ‘I do not believe the PM can rise to this moment. He has lost the country. He should take control of the situation by overseeing an orderly transition to a new PM.’
This intervention especially wounded Sir Keir because Simons had been one of his key strategists and director of the Starmerite Labour Together think-tank.
By now, Downing Street were seeing treachery everywhere. I was told by one Starmer supporter two senior ministers who were publicly backing him were surreptitiously despatching their special advisers to lobby MPs to call for his departure. Other senior ministers were reportedly brokering deals with rival camps for Cabinet positions following the transition to a new leader.
As one minister said: ‘What really got to Keir was people were saying to him, “I’m still with you.” Then they’d walk out and carry on actively co-ordinating with the plotters.’
The decisive moment came on Thursday. No 10 were hopeful that a new raft of good news on the economy and NHS waiting lists could be used to try to seize back the agenda, and start to construct a narrative of slow but steady government delivery.
A few hours later Wes Streeting quit the Cabinet. His departure was followed shortly after by the news Josh Simons was resigning to allow Andy Burnham to return to Parliament
But then Chancellor Rachel Reeves appeared in Downing Street to conduct an interview with the BBC. ‘Because of the additional money, £29 billion a year that I’ve been able to put into the Health Service as Chancellor, that means that those waiting lists should continue to fall,’ she said.
Her use of the word ‘I’ rather than ‘the Prime Minister and I’ was seen as significant. ‘She’s decoupling from him,’ another Cabinet minister told me.
A few hours later Wes Streeting quit the Cabinet. His departure was followed shortly after by the news Josh Simons was resigning the seat in Makerfield to allow Andy Burnham to return to Parliament.
‘That was a body blow to them [No 10],’ one minister revealed. ‘They thought they’d seen off Wes and that Andy was bluffing about having a seat.’
Inside Downing Street, a desperate last-minute operation was launched to convince members of Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) to block Burnham from standing.
But it was thwarted after Labour Deputy Leader Lucy Powell organised an unprecedentedly swift three-hour consultation that took Starmer’s team completely by surprise. ‘It was done and dusted before No 10 knew what was happening,’ one NEC member told me.
Last week I spoke to a friend of Starmer’s about whether he thought the PM would continue to fight on, even though his position was clearly hopeless. ‘Keir’s stubborn,’ they told me. ‘He has this ability to believe that nothing is written in stone. That he’s a cat with nine lives.’
Not any more. Keir Starmer recognises his ninth – and final – life has at last been used up.