Australia's top weather bureau has confirmed El Niño is underway, amid fears it could be one of the strongest in the modern era and bring extreme heat and bushfires. 

The Bureau of Meteorology verified the weather event on Tuesday and said forecasts signalled a 'strong to very strong' El Niño climatic pattern.

The Bureau said one of the clearest signs is a major drop in air pressure across the Pacific, measured by the Southern Oscillation Index. 

It has plunged to around -23.3, which is well beyond the El Niño benchmark of -7. 

Ocean temperatures in the central Pacific also haven't increased this rapidly since 1943. 

As a result, the Bureau said the country could have drier and hotter conditions in parts of the country.  

'El Niño often brings drier conditions to central and eastern Australia in winter and spring, but Australia's weather is also shaped by other climate factors, so outcomes can vary,' it said. 

For winter and spring 2026, the forecast shows less rainfall in the south and east, and higher temperatures in most areas except parts of the north. 

Climate experts warn El Niño is often linked to heatwaves, drought and an increased risk of bushfires, particularly later in the year as conditions dry out.

They say the event is now unfolding in a warmer world, which can amplify extreme weather and push temperatures even higher.

El Niño events tend to last between six to twelve months, but have been known to persist for up to two years.

'Current forecasts show El Niño conditions are likely to persist well into the latter half of 2026,' the Bureau said. 

'El Niño events typically peak in summer, before weakening in the first quarter of the calendar year. 

'The influence on Australia's rainfall patterns typically reduces around early summer.'

Looking ahead, the Bureau said it is still too early to make detailed predictions for summer, with clearer forecasts expected later in spring. 

'El Niño can increase the risk of extreme temperature shifts, like heatwaves and hotter days,' the Bureau said. 

'A warming climate increases the likelihood of hotter conditions, heatwaves, including marine heatwaves, fire weather, heavy rainfall and flooding events.' 

The Bureau said the change in weather wouldn't come into effect immediately. 

'Our forecasts take into account all the different influences from our oceans and atmosphere to assess the likely rainfall and temperature patterns in the coming months,' it said. 

'During El Niño, the Pacific is likely to be extending a dry influence on our rainfall patterns.' 

In previous El Niño events, there was less rainfall in winter and spring, hotter temperatures during the day in southern areas and more risk of frost due to clearer skies.  

Despite all that, the Bureau said that past patterns may not be a reliable indicator of future results in a warming climate. 

It also said that no two events were the same.

'Rainfall and temperature impacts can vary from one El Niño event to another,' the Bureau said.

'For example, winter to spring rainfall in 2002 was very different from 2015.' 

The confirmation comes after a leading scientist warned Australians to brace for extreme weather later this year as a potential 'Godzilla' El Niño develops in the Pacific. 

Physicist Dr Gail Isles said the natural climate pattern, which typically occurs every four to five years, should concern Australians because it is associated with hotter, drier conditions that can increase the risk of bushfires.

'It means that we're getting drier winds, and drier winds are going to dry out the foliage - that's going to make everything like a tinder box, and it means that the slightest spark is just going to generate bushfires,' Dr Isles told 3AW on Friday.

The Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS) says that the impending climate event will compound global gas shortages and send prices soaring.

El Niño is poised to trigger an exceptionally hot summer in Asia, spiking energy demand as people turn on their air conditioning.

At the same time, this powerful weather event threatens Europe with a freezing winter that will raise demand for gas used to keep homes and businesses warm.

The ICIS says that this will intensify the fraught competition between Asia and Europe, as both rush to supplement dwindling supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

The experts warn that Asian countries are already snapping up massive shipments of LNG that would normally be used to fill up winter storage tanks in the UK and Europe.