Australians planning overseas holidays are being warned to brace for travel disruption, with the Middle East conflict triggering global jet‑fuel shortages and raising the risk of sudden flight cancellations.

The conflict, which was sparked when the US and Israel made joint strikes on Iran at the end of February, prompted Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for jet fuel out of the Gulf.

It remains off limits to shipping, prompting the International Energy Agency to warn that countries face possible shortages.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA), which represents more than 360 airlines, has warned passengers to expect flight cancellations in May.

In a direct impact for Australia, Qantas and Virgin Australia have both moved to cut capacity and lift fares in response to surging fuel costs linked to the conflict.

Meanwhile, earlier this month, Virgin announced there would be fewer flights and higher fares across the second half of 2025–26 and into the next financial year.

Global aviation expert Geoffrey Thomas told the Daily Mail the situation is so unpredictable that flights could be cut at the last minute, echoing a warning from Environment Minister Murray Watt, who said this week that flight cancellations 'can't be ruled out' if the conflict continues.

'We have a very fragile ceasefire that could change in an instant. It may erupt at any time,' Mr Thomas said.

'There's every possibility flights will be cancelled and rerouted at short notice, because the situation we're dealing with is incredibly volatile.

'The availability of fuel is also very much on the minds of the airlines.

'For instance, an airline like Cathay Pacific may have plenty of fuel in Hong Kong, because China is one of the largest manufacturers of jet fuel.

'But when it gets to Europe, it has to be assured that it has the supplies needed to refuel in order to come back.'

Mr Thomas said that Europe is dependent on a mix of sources for fuel, including from Kuwait, which is hindered in exporting oil or jet fuel due to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

'Europe is more exposed at the moment than Asia is, which means trips from Australia are obviously a challenge,' he said.

'For airlines like Qantas, who operate the Perth to London service, at the moment, they have to fly additional distance to refuel in Singapore.

'Any airline that operates through the Middle East is also exposed if the conflict widens or the Iranians decide to resume random drone attacks.'

Mr Thomas said this may not happen but the uncertainty still leaves questions for travellers.

'Airlines like Singapore and Cathay Pacific, Malaysian or Thai, they're less exposed because from their hubs in Asia, they can go to Europe nonstop, and they don't need to stop in the Middle East,' he added.

How to prepare when booking international trips?

Mr Thomas suggested people skip long‑haul travel and stick to visiting domestic locations or destinations within the Asia‑Pacific region.

'Put off that trip to Europe until next year and do something local, support the tourism industry like we did during the Covid pandemic,' he said.

'We all jumped in our cars and went into the interior of the country to see all the things we promised we'd see one day, and we ticked off those bucket list items.'

Dr David Beirman, an adjunct professor of tourism at the University of Technology Sydney, advised that people avoid the Middle East region specifically.

During his research, he said the more traditional routes from Australia to Europe, Africa and parts of Asia went through the Middle East, but people are now travelling via Singapore, Kuala Lumpur and Tokyo.

'Be wise about the intermediate stopovers you choose – for the time being, I would avoid the Middle East.'

Should I take out travel insurance? 

Both experts agreed that taking out travel insurance is essential when planning any trip.

'To not travel with insurance these days is pretty crazy,' Dr Beirman told the Daily Mail.

'Most policies will cover cancellation or major changes to an itinerary from a number of causes.

'If your airline is being difficult about a changed flight, and they're only prepared to give you a credit or something like that, the travel insurance company will usually come to the party and help financially.'

What happens if my return flight changes? 

Dr Beirman advised that if Australians experience a schedule change for their flights while they are overseas, the airline will normally accommodate them.

If the flight is suspended, it will vary depending on the airline, as some may offer customers a credit for use on their airline, while others may allow use of another carrier.

'The most important thing to do in cases like this, and particularly as routes via the Middle East have been affected, is to check rules and regulations before you even make a booking,' he said.

'It's good to check what the conditions are on insurance. Generally, they'll cover accommodation that's incurred because you've been delayed but not always.'

Another key detail for passengers is to confirm that their airline is part of the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

'If you're waylaid and need accommodation because there's been a change in timing, IATA member airlines will cover that accommodation,' Dr Beirman said.

'If you're traveling on a non-IATA airline, and about 80 per cent of airlines are members but a lot of the low cost carriers are not, you should be aware of that fact.'

He stressed that airlines have their own rules, but IATA members must also follow the association's — for example, paying for accommodation during stopovers longer than eight hours.

'A good example of this was when there were volcanic ash clouds from Iceland in 2010 and millions of people were waylaid,' the expert said.

'If they were on non-IATA airlines, passengers were kind of stranded but if they were flying on IATA airlines, and a delay occurred, they were accommodated.'