In the long history of British democracy, there has never been a more important by-election then the epic contest now underway at Makerfield in Greater Manchester. The outcome will not only decide the fate of the beleaguered Labour Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, but could also determine the political destiny of our country for years to come. In effect Makerfield is like a general election in microcosm.

If the Labour candidate Andy Burnham wins, the consequences will be disastrous. The bumptious, egocentric Manchester Mayor, known as the ‘King of the North’, will immediately commit regicide against Starmer, followed by his Coronation.

Once installed in Downing Street, Burnham will drag the Labour Government rapidly to the Left; taxes and welfare spending will soar, accompanied by submission to the EU and militant trade unions. From price controls to nationalisation, socialism will be back with a vengeance. At the same time, the Left will consolidate their stranglehold on office by measures like the expansion of state bureaucracy, the extension of powers to devolved assemblies and the introduction of votes for 16-year-olds.

But the picture would be very different if Reform UK, Burnham’s main challenger, were to triumph. Such a victory would galvanise the forces of conservatism, and provide real hope that the tide of socialism can be turned. With Burnham defeated, Labour’s leadership crisis would deepen. Unable to defend its traditional heartland, vulnerable in every part of the nation, the party would face a bleak future.

But this crucial win cannot be achieved if the centre-right is divided. According to the first opinion poll conducted at Makerfield, the contest is on a knife-edge, with Labour on 43 per cent, just 3 points ahead of Reform on 40 per cent. A few votes either way could settle the result. Given the potential tightness of the fight and the massive implications for Britain’s governance, all those involved in the challenge to Labour must show an awareness of their responsibility, putting the needs of the country before the demands of their own egos.

Even when handed this golden opportunity to cause serious damage to Labour, the centre-right remains divided. Neither Reform UK nor the Conservative Party seem willing to talk about a pact, despite a shared mutual interest in bringing down Labour.

Perhaps even more worrying is the insistence by the fringe right-wing party Restore Britain, led by the maverick Great Yarmouth MP Rupert Lowe, on running its own candidate in Makerfield. It is an exercise in destructive frivolity which can achieve nothing except to bolster Labour. Indeed, Rebecca Shepherd, the Restore candidate chosen for this mission, could not be supporting Burnham more if she were his paid agent.

Last weekend’s opinion poll put her Restore vote at just 7 per cent, way behind Labour and Reform - so Ms Shepherd has no chance of winning. But, in this wafer-thin marginal, she has every chance of creating a sufficiently large fracture in the anti-Labour vote to allow Burnham to sneak over the line.

What makes Restore’s stance so ridiculous is that there are no great issues of principle that divide Lowe’s party from Nigel Farage’s Reform movement. They both agree on the need for stronger borders, far more deportations, lower taxes, reductions in welfare and a pro-business environment. It is a personality clash, not policy, that has put Lowe on the path of sabotage.

A Eurosceptic and successful businessman, reportedly worth £30 million, Rupert Lowe was once a Tory member but left over the Maastricht Treaty, which heralded the creation of the European Union. Having joined UKIP, he was elected to the European parliament in 2019 under the banner of Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party which became Reform UK.

At first he and Farage got on reasonably well but friction arose between them when Lowe was elected as an MP in 2024. Self-important and fuelled by delusions of grandeur, he embarked on a collision course with the Reform leader, sniping at Farage and openly questioning his style of leadership.

In March 2025, he told this paper that Reform UK was ‘a protest party led by a Messiah.’ The situation was inflamed by his association with the idiosyncratic tycoon, Elon Musk, the world’s richest man. It was Musk who also decided that Farage ‘does not have what it takes’ to be the leader of the right in Britain and instead anointed Lowe for the role.

On Sunday, Musk shared a tweet from Lowe about the by-election, saying: ‘Restore Britain.’

The Tesla CEO’s cheerleading, which showed no respect for the realities of British democracy, fed Lowe’s vanity, particularly by raising his online profile and giving him a vast global reach. Lowe now has over 930,000 followers on Facebook and nearly 770,000 on Musk-owned X, while figures in President Trump’s MAGA movement eagerly endorse him on Truth Social.

Yet Lowe’s apparent attempt to build an alternative power base with in Reform was intolerable to the leadership. Amid allegations of inappropriate behaviour with female members of staff and threats of violence against party chairman Zia Yusuf - allegations Lowe claimed were false and part of a ‘brutal smear campaign’ by Reform - he was forced out and went on to form his own Restore Britain Party.

Whatever the truth about his departure from Reform, there is little doubt he has considerable faith in his own genius - and to be fair he has made a fortune in business. But he is no stranger to friction with some of those he works with.

In the football world, as chairman of Southampton FC for over a decade, he became the target for fans’ fury and players reportedly sniggered at his appearances on the training ground in a tracksuit emblazoned with the initials ‘RL’.

The words used about his time in charge included: ‘pompous’, ‘stupid’, ‘buffoon’ and ‘lightweight’. Simon Jordan, the former chairman of Crystal Palace, once wrote of his ‘comic book pomposity and his superior air’. During his tenure at Southampton Lowe got through eight changes of manager, hardly a testimony to his stable leadership qualities.

But all this is almost beside the point given the predicament Britain now faces with Makerfield. There is a real danger that Britain will pay an appalling price for Lowe’s ego trip in the constituency.

These grave times at home and abroad call for self-restraint, not self-indulgence. It is absurd to allow the coherence of the centre-right to be sacrificed on the altar of personal spite. No matter how ferocious his ambition, no matter how deep - or even reasonable - his antipathy towards Farage might be.

The task of defeating socialism should override such personal concerns. If Lowe truly cared about Britain as much as he says, he would be out campaigning with his former Reform colleagues instead of undermining them.

Vanity is one of the besetting sins of politicians, who often convince themselves that the advance of their own career is synonymous with the national interest. Tony Benn was a classic example. Though he always denied he was building a personality cult, he helped to keep Labour in the wilderness of opposition for almost two decades through his rebellious antics and addiction to internal disputes.

Robert Kilroy Silk was another self regarding politician whose belief in his own greatness caused endless friction within Labour, then UKIP and then his own Eurosceptic party called Veritas – known to critics as Vanitas - which he abandoned after only a few months.

The Makerfield by-election is not a game. It must not be an arena for clanking egos and puerile scraps. The stakes are far too high. On this result depends real people’s jobs, standards of living, financial security and prospects. The future of the nation is on the ballot paper and those with any influence over the outcome must not squander this power.

Does Rupert Lowe really want to go down in history as the man who helped make Burnham prime minister?