The Prime Minister stands a chance of winning a leadership contest and staying in No 10 depending on who he faces, polling revealed yesterday.
Sir Keir Starmer would easily beat Wes Streeting but lose to Andy Burnham among Labour members, it found.
More than half (53 per cent) would back Sir Keir, while just 23 per cent would support the former health secretary if the pair went head to head.
But the Prime Minister would be defeated by the Greater Manchester mayor, with Mr Burnham securing 61 per cent of the membership’s support.
Other rumoured rivals Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband would also defeat Sir Keir in a direct contest among the party faithful, according to the poll.
But he would win against the likes of Al Carns, Darren Jones, Bridget Phillipson, Louise Haigh, Yvette Cooper, Shabana Mahmood and Lucy Powell.
The Prime Minister has vowed to fight a leadership challenge and would automatically be on the ballot paper in any race.
But should he heed the call of nearly half of the party’s backbenchers to step back, the poll reveals that members would still not back Mr Streeting.
Sir Keir Starmer would easily beat Wes Streeting but lose to Andy Burnham among Labour members, it found
Jjust 23 per cent would support the former health secretary against Sir Keir Starmer
The Prime Minister would be defeated by Burnham, securing 61 per cent of the membership’s support
Q&A
Keir Starmer would be the first sitting Labour Prime Minister to face a leadership contest if Wes Streeting challenges him. But the process isn’t a simple one:
How does a challenger start a leadership race?
Only a sitting Labour MP can stand for the leadership, according to the party rulebook. They need the backing of 20 per cent of the Parliamentary Labour Party, which is 81 MPs. The party’s ruling body, the National Executive Committee, will then make arrangements for a full vote of party members.
Who can stand?
The Prime Minister will be on the ballot paper by default if he chooses to fight a challenge, without needing to be backed by MPs, as Sir Keir has vowed to do. While in practice there is no limit to the number of candidates, it would be restricted because they would need the backing of 81 Labour MPs. Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, would only be able to stand if he wins a Westminster seat.
What is the process?
A list of valid candidates would then be published by party officials, including the names of the MPs supporting the nominees. Labour general secretary Hollie Ridley would act as returning officer in the election and would appoint an independent scrutineer to oversee and verify the ballot.
Who can vote?
Labour Party members who have paid subscriptions for at least six months as well as affiliated trade union supporters. They can only vote as either a party member or a trade union member, not both, under the one-person-one-vote system.
What voting system is used?
The contest would use a preferential ballot, with members ranking the candidates in order of preference. A candidate who wins more than 50 per cent of the vote will win automatically. Otherwise, the candidate who came last is removed and their votes are redistributed to the second preference of those who voted for them. This process is repeated until one candidate has more than half of the votes.
He would also lose in a direct contest against Mr Burnham, Ms Rayner, Ed Miliband and Ms Powell.
Despite this, the Survation poll by LabourList also found that 57 per cent of party members believe there should be a change of leader, with 84 per cent calling for a timetable for a leadership contest.
Most would want the Prime Minister to delay his departure to autumn conference season (43 per cent) rather than resigning immediately (12 per cent).
The suggestion was, given the polling was carried out before last night’s developments (which saw Mr Burnham say he will ask Labour’s ruling body for permission to stand in the Makerfield seat vacated yesterday by its sitting MP), that members wanted to give him time to find a Westminster seat.
Damian Lyons Lowe, CEO of Survation, said that the PM and Mr Streeting were neck-and-neck in November last year but the membership had since grown more supportive of Sir Keir. He suggested this was because Mr Streeting’s ambition to become PM had been made ‘both plain and acute’ so lost him support. Emma Burnell, editor of party-dedicated website LabourList, added: ‘This polling is very bad news for Wes Streeting’s hopes.
‘The membership – as demonstrated in our previous polling – may not be happy with Keir Starmer, but when faced with a challenge from Wes they do not currently believe that is the change that is needed. Wes is a great communicator, and were a contest to come down to just him and Keir Starmer, it could be that he can persuade enough people to change their minds.
‘But as it stands he will be facing a Herculean task to do so.’
It came as Catherine West – who began Labour’s latest leadership crisis by threatening to stand against the PM before withdrawing her threat – said Sir Keir could win a contest for the hot seat.
In a confusing development, the maverick Labour MP also told BBC Radio 4 that she would not rule out voting for him. ‘If Keir Starmer decides he has got the bottle and he can come and fight – fight as if he is fighting for the working people of this country – then he could beat the others, because he is a very bright man,’ she said.
Ms West made headlines after becoming the first Labour MP to call for Sir Keir to set out a timetable to leave, threatening that she would otherwise stand against him. Having urged colleagues to back her bid to find the required 81 MPs to support her, she later said she would not actually stand.
The MP for Hornsey and Friern Barnet then claimed she would be canvassing opinion, before also abandoning that.
Survation surveyed 1,124 readers of LabourList over the past two days who said they were party members.