The SNP and the Greens are on course to fall short of a pro-independence majority in next month’s Holyrood election, according to a detailed new poll.

A survey of more than 5,000 Scots voters found pro-Union parties are on track to get more MSPs elected than the pro-independence parties.

But the poll by More in Common also found that more than half of the 73 constituencies are considered ‘marginal’, meaning there is less than five percentage points between the two biggest parties and there is still ‘all to play for’.

The poll, which uses a multi-level regression with post-stratification (MRP) system to provide results for each constituency, indicates the SNP is on course to fall from 64 seats to 56, with Reform UK in second place on 22, Labour 17, the Lib Dems 14, Conservatives 12 and Greens eight.

Luke Tryl, UK director of More in Common, said: ‘Having been in power for almost two decades, the SNP are clearly suffering from the curse of incumbency that has afflicted governments around the world. 

Although they look set to maintain power it will almost certainly be with significantly diminished vote share and this model estimates a lower seat count too.

‘The SNP benefit, however, from a further fragmentation of the Unionist vote, with Reform UK emerging as the strongest Unionist party and official opposition. That said, the biggest takeaway from this model is the sheer uncertainty six-party politics creates.’

During a Channel 4 debate last week, Reform UK’s Scottish leader Malcolm Offord claimed that Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar had privately offered to work with him to ‘remove the SNP’. He made the claim – which was branded a lie by Mr Sarwar – after the Scottish Labour leader had claimed a Reform candidate ‘wants to deport my children’. 

Asked yesterday if he could vote for Mr Sarwar to become First Minister, Lord Offord told the BBC: ‘He doesn’t share our ambition to make Scotland the most successful part of the UK, so I don’t understand how we could work together.’

Labour’s Paul O’Kane said: ‘Anas Sarwar has been very clear in this election he is a candidate for First Minister, we are not making deals before a single vote has been cast.’ The More in Common poll uses voter intentions, demographics, past voting behaviour and constituency information.

According to its findings, Reform is on course to secure at least two MSPs on the regional list in every area, with up to four in West Scotland, and it could win the constituencies of Ayr and Banffshire and Buchan Coast.

The Scottish Greens – who are projected to take eight seats – could claim their first constituencies in Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill and Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith.

SNP leader John Swinney told the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme that ‘I think we will get a majority’. He said: ‘I’m confident to predict it and that’s what I am focused on achieving.’

He also claimed in an interview with the Press Association that he believes the SNP could win an independence referendum in 2028.

Lib Dem MSP Jamie Green branded his comments ‘very arrogant’. A Scottish Conservative spokesman said: ‘This poll makes it clear that a vote for Reform will only help the SNP remain in power for another five years.

‘As postal votes continue to land across Scotland, voters must back the Scottish Conservatives on their peach ballot paper.’