Scotland is heading for a ‘Meh election’ with voters the least enthusiastic in the UK after 19 years of SNP rule, according to a leading pollster.
More in Common executive director Luke Tryl said Scots thought most potential outcomes, from an SNP majority to a Reform-led government, would be bad ones.
He told an online event: ‘In Scotland, voter disenchantment is likely to define this election.
‘With widespread dissatisfaction toward incumbents in Holyrood and Westminster alike - and no obvious change candidate - we’re seeing widespread apathy and resignation.
‘Expect record fragmentation [of the vote] and potentially low turnout.’
He said that, despite ostensibly Unionist parties being on track for their biggest overall vote share since 1999, the SNP were set for victory because their opponents were split.
‘The SNP are benefiting from fragmentation on the Unionist side,’ he said, adding John Swinney appeared set to win 60 MSPs, five short of a majority, despite three-fifths of voters opposing the Nationalists.
The Scottish Tories have long warned a vote for Reform UK risks letting the SNP surge to victory.
More in Common executive director Luke Tryl said Scots thought most potential outcomes from the election would be bad ones
Mr Tryl said: ‘The thing which struck me in Scottish focus groups was just how unenthusiastic people were about these elections.
‘This feeling of “meh” - we’ve got an unpopular incumbent government in Westminster, we’ve got a tired government in Holyrood.
‘I would definitely say the most unenthusiastic I have seen people about an election in the time that I’m doing this.
‘Normally, at least, people are either motivated by getting someone else out or getting their party in. You just see very little of that in Scotland.’
He identified ‘SNP fatigue’, with the party widely viewed as ‘out of ideas’ and a ‘complacent and out-of-touch incumbent’.
Mr Swinney was even seen by many Nationalists as ‘a decent man’ but lacking ‘fire in his belly’.
More in Common’s analysis puts Reform on second place with 22 seats, with Labour at risk of falling to their worst ever Holyrood result with 13 MSPs.
There was bad news for Reform’s Scottish leader Malcolm Offord, who last month stunned a TV debate by revealing he has ‘six boats, five cars and six houses’.
According to the leading pollster John Swinney is seen even by many Nationalists as lacking ‘fire in his belly’
Mr Tryl said 44 per cent of Scots felt the comments reflected badly on Lord Offord compared to 23 who said they did him credit.
Asked if Lord Offord was more of a hinderance than an asset, Mr Tryl said he was ‘not the best person to capitalise’ on the party’s promise of change.
He added: ‘Someone like [Glasgow councillor] Thomas Kerr might have broadened Reform’s appeal.
‘With other leaders, like John Swinney, people say “I like him”. I’ve never heard that about Malcolm Offord [in a focus group]. So I don’t think he’s particularly helped.’
Only 11 per cent of all Scots voters and only 30 per cent of Scots Reform voters had a ‘positive view’ of Lord Offord, while most are ‘unaware of him or hold no view’.
A Reform spokesman said: ‘If Scottish voters are feeling uninspired it’s because they’re having to listen to the same tired establishment parties that have let them down for years.
‘Reform UK is the antidote to that apathy. Malcolm Offord’s message about rewards for aspiration is exactly what the country needs after years of SNP failure.’
An SNP spokesman said: ‘Only the SNP is on Scotland’s side with John Swinney’s trusted and reliable leadership fixed on the priorities of the people of Scotland.’