The SNP’s flagship food cap pledge has come under fire after it was claimed it would hand ‘almost zero’ help to families.
The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) and Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) both flagged concerns after John Swinney doubled down on the controversial idea.
The First Minister this month said he planned to impose ‘legal price ceilings’ on up to 50 essential foods, such as bread, milk and cheese, in big supermarkets.
After retailers slammed it as a ‘potty gimmick’, he changed tack and said ‘voluntary steps’ would be quicker and less legally risky than legislation.
But after that led to claims the policy was in chaos, Mr Swinney insisted it would be in place by the end of the year.
IPPR director Stephen Boyd was scathing and warned it was politically ‘dangerous’.
He told the Times the measure bore ‘all the signs of being ill-thought through’.
First Minister John Swinney has pledged a price cap on a range of supermarket foods
He said: ‘The chances of this policy making a tangible difference to household budgets over the next parliament are almost zero.
‘Even if we assume that the next Scottish government has sufficient powers to enact the policy, it’s highly unlikely that the prices of everyday supermarket items can be reduced to an extent that makes a real difference to consumers.
‘Making promises that can’t be kept is dangerous in the long run. Populism in all its guises is, in many ways, a response to the persistent failure of mainstream politicians to deliver on their manifesto commitments.’
The IFS also highlighted the food cap as it warned all the main parties’ manifestos lacked ‘realism’ about the grim state of the public finances.
It said: ‘Whether a Scottish Government has the power to enact such a policy is unclear. And there could be unintended consequences if retailers restrict the availability of the specific product lines the caps apply to.’
With the Scottish budget due to fall £5billion a year short of SNP spending plans in the next parliament, IFS devolved finance spokesman David Philips said: ‘While differing in their visions, the major parties share a common shortcoming - a lack of realism regarding just how tough the fiscal challenges facing the next Scottish government are.
‘A slowdown in increases in UK Government funding, growing demands and costs for health and social care and devolved benefits, and a hangover from some bad budgeting habits of the last Scottish government, will mean a Scottish budget under significant pressure.
‘Neither expansions of the Scottish welfare state without commensurate tax rises, nor definite tax cuts without similarly definite reductions in spending, are fiscally credible.
‘In reality, there would need to be difficult decisions elsewhere in the Scottish budget to square the circle.
‘Voters may not warm to a dose of cold, hard fiscal reality.’
Mr Swinney confirmed on Monday he wanted food caps in place this year - and urged the UK not to use the Internal Market Act, which harmonises trade UK-wide, to block the plan.
He said: ‘These proposals will be well worked out. They’ll be worked out by engagement with all interested and relevant parties to make sure we’ve got good, deliverable proposals.’
Scottish Retail Consortium director David Lonsdale said: ‘These are powerful interventions which pooh-pooh the idea of a government-mandated cap on food prices in shops.’
The Joseph Rowntree Foundation also warned all the parties would fall ‘well short’ of targets to cut child poverty based on their plans.