Decision time in the Holyrood election looms large for many of us within the coming days. 

Around a million people are set to vote by post, making up roughly one in four of the electorate.

The contest comes as the SNP limps into its 19th dismal year in office after almost two decades of scandal, spin and secrecy.

Despite this, the Nationalists look set to remain the largest party at Holyrood, meaning tough choices lie ahead for those who prioritise the Union over all else.

John Swinney has made it clear he will continue to agitate for another referendum if the SNP wins a majority at Holyrood.

Such a scenario would give him the platform to apply pressure on the weak Labour government at Westminster.

Of course, it is entirely up to our readers to decide who deserves their vote, but many will be considering whether or not to vote tactically, perhaps for the first time.

Giving up long-standing party allegiances can be a real wrench. But it is an approach that could reap tangible rewards if it prevents the SNP gaining control of Holyrood.

For those considering a tactical vote, the Mail has produced a detailed guide covering every seat in Scotland.

Created in conjunction with the Scotland in Union campaign group, the guide is based on past election history, demographic data, opinion poll research and specific local knowledge.

Today we focus on Glasgow, Central Scotland and Lothians West.

GLASGOW

Glasgow Anniesland

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 6,588

Second-placed 2021: Labour

DONALD Dewar’s old stomping ground has been SNP since 2011 – but only just. The Nationalists’ unassuming Bill Kidd first won the seat by just seven votes. He then built that to almost 7,000. However, Labour’s Patricia Ferguson gained the equivalent Westminster seat from the SNP at the last general election.

Now her staffer, Glasgow City Councillor Eunis Jassemi, is aiming to repeat her victory at Holyrood. With Kidd standing down, the SNP has turned to his aide Colm Merrick, an East Renfrewshire Councillor, to fend off Labour’s challenge.

Tactical vote: Labour

Glasgow Baillieston and Shettleston

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 8,025

Second-placed 2021: Labour

LARGELY the former Glasgow Shettleston seat, this constituency was won for three elections by the SNP maverick and later Independent MSP John Mason.

His exit in May sees former Glasgow East MP David Linden attempting a comeback for the SNP, no doubt hoping the sex scandal over his cousin Jordan Linden in nearby Lanarkshire doesn’t deter voters.

Labour veteran Pauline McNeill, the party’s justice spokesman, is her party’s choice to deny him victory. Reform leading light Thomas Kerr is also standing here and risks splitting the Unionist vote.

Tactical vote: Labour

Glasgow Cathcart and Pollok

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 10,396

Second-placed 2021: Labour

WITH the Glasgow region shrinking from nine seats to eight, Cathcart and Pollok is another heavily redrawn constituency. The dominant Cathcart part was won by SNP controversialist James Dornan in 2011 and held twice. His exit sees city councillor Zen Ghani, a former aide to Nicola Sturgeon, step up for the Nationalists.

Having twice failed to beat Sturgeon in next door Glasgow Southside, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar has chosen this seat to mount what could be his last run for Holyrood.

Tactical vote: Labour

Glasgow Central

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 5,458

Second-placed 2021: Green

ANOTHER massively redrawn seat that ranges from Govan on the south of the Clyde, over the river into the city centre and the East End. Its largest chunk comes from the old Glasgow Kelvin constituency.

The SNP has won Kelvin since 2011. But its winner in 2021, Kaukab Stewart, is moving seats, clearing the way for former Nationalist MP Alison Thewliss to make a bid for Holyrood.

In years past, the Greens would have been her main headache. But the boundary changes have wrecked Green hopes, and Labour’s Vonnie Sandlan is the best candidate to deny Thewliss, a close ally of Nicola Sturgeon, another job in politics.

Tactical vote: Labour

Glasgow Easterhouse and Springburn

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 7,230

Second-placed 2021: Labour

SNP business minister Ivan McKee is hoping for re-election in the successor to his Glasgow Provan seat. He had a winning margin of more than 7,000 in 2021, but major boundary changes make the arithmetic harder to fathom at this election.

Labour’s Maureen Burke took the overlapping Westminster seat of Glasgow North East from the SNP on a solid 12-point swing in 2024. Paul Sweeney, one of Labour’s sharpest MSPs in the last parliament, is his party’s candidate and knows the area well, having been its MP from 2017 to 2019.

Tactical vote: Labour

Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 5,458

Second-placed 2021: Green

SNP backbencher Bob Doris is hoping to be re-elected in a redrawn seat replacing his more working-class Maryhill and Springburn. The new constituency is mostly the old Kelvin one, taking in the student-saturated area around Glasgow University and the West End.

The Greens are a strong presence and are standing one of their six constituency candidates here.

Iris Duane’s bid could eat into the SNP vote. Hoping that works in his favour is Labour’s James Adams, a city councillor and director of RNIB Scotland.

Tactical vote: Labour

Glasgow Southside

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 9,456

Second-placed 2021: Labour

WITH Nicola Sturgeon leaving Holyrood, her Glasgow Southside seat is up for grabs. In theory, SNP candidate Kaukab Stewart – infamously photographed in front of a ‘decapitate terfs’ sign at a trans rights rally in the city –should be in pole position.

But boundary changes have brought in three wards where the Greens are exceptionally strong, making this their second-top target in Scotland. Local Green councillor Holly Bruce could well split the Nationalist vote.

Her candidacy gives council Labour group leader Rashid Hussain more than a fighting chance, despite him being brought in at the last minute after Labour’s first choice, Mo Ameen, was charged with fraud.

Tactical vote: Labour

Rutherglen and Cambuslang

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 5,166

Second-placed 2021: Labour

FORMER children’s minister Clare Haughey is trying for her third term as an MSP in a seat that is nominally part of Glasgow but actually sits in South Lanarkshire.

Unfortunately for her, her majority is one of the SNP’s smallest in the region. Scottish Labour also has its tail up.

After winning the Westminster by-election in Rutherglen and Hamilton West from the SNP in 2023, new MP Michael Shanks comfortably held Rutherglen in the general election and is now UK energy minister.

Labour’s outspoken candidate is Monica Lennon, who gave Anas Sarwar a run for his money in the party’s Scottish leadership contest in 2021.

Tactical vote: Labour

CENTRAL SCOTLAND AND LOTHIANS WEST

Airdrie

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 5,468

Second-placed 2021: Labour

WITH opposition parties lining up to attack the SNP’s grim record on the NHS, Health Secretary Neil Gray is facing a gruelling contest here. As well as the former MP having to defend his own efforts since switching from Westminster to Holyrood in 2021, the seat has a rollercoaster history of moving between the SNP and Labour.

At the 2024 general election, it was Labour’s turn to wrestle it away from the Nationalists on a thumping 16 per cent swing. Anas Sarwar’s party is hoping newcomer Suzanne MacLeod can mirror that win at Holyrood.

Tactical vote: Labour

Almond Valley

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 12,130

Second-placed 2021: Labour

Justice Secretary Angela Constance won the area around Livingston with more than twice her main rival’s vote share in 2021.

But she’s been under fire for misleading Holyrood over grooming gangs and the emergency release of 1,000 prisoners to cope with the SNP’s overcrowding crisis. She also faces one of Scottish Labour’s better new candidates, Jordan Stokoe, a former SFA linesman whose mother died from lung cancer amid long NHS waits, giving him a powerful story to tell about health service reform.

Tactical vote: Labour

Bathgate

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 10,105

Second-placed 2021: Labour

A new constituency based on the old seat of Linlithgow – but minus Linlithgow. Transport Secretary Fiona Hyslop steadily increased the SNP’s majority over three elections. But she is standing down, leaving West Lothian councillor and piano tutor Pauline Stafford to try to defend the seat for the Nats.

Challenging her is Labour novice Jenny Young, also a former teacher, who says she is standing to stop pupils being let down by the SNP. The forlorn state of Bathgate’s shopping streets is a big local issue.

Tactical vote: Labour

Coatbridge and Chryston

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 9,437

Second-placed 2021: Labour

A SEAT where the SNP’s chickens are coming home to roost. MSP Fulton MacGregor has been anonymous since winning in 2016, but the local SNP has made headlines galore.

Jordan Linden, ex-leader of North Lanarkshire Council and one of MacGregor’s former allies, was recently convicted of ten sexual offences against young men over a decade. He is due to be sentenced just two days before polling.

Linden’s staffer Tracy Carragher, a local councillor, has been axed as a Holyrood candidate over the scandal. Labour’s Kieron Higgins, a savvy former Scotland Office special adviser, is looking to capitalise on the SNP disarray.

Tactical vote: Labour

Cumbernauld and Kilsyth

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 9,841

Second-placed 2021: Labour

A GLASGOW-facing seat on the edge of North Lanarkshire thanks to the commuter towns around Croy railway station.

The SNP’s Jamie Hepburn has won three times in a row, building his majority each time. But last year the Nationalist politician blotted his copybook by getting in a bizarre row at Holyrood with Douglas Ross about seagulls.

After being accused of grabbing and swearing at the former Tory leader, he quit as minister for parliamentary business and apologised.

His usual Labour opponent, Mark Griffin, has switched seats. Griffin’s staffer, Cumbernauld councillor James McPhilemy, will take on Hepburn instead.

Tactical vote: Labour

Falkirk East and Linlithgow

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 7,585

Second-placed 2021: Labour

THE previous Falkirk East seat with Linlithgow tagged on, this constituency on the Firth of Forth remains dominated by the Grangemouth petrochemical works and questions over its future.

Scotland’s last oil refinery closed here last year, despite UK Labour’s vow to save jobs. The SNP’s promise of a ‘just transition’ from fossil fuel to green industries has proved just as unreliable. The election could be a referendum on both parties.

The SNP’s admirably blunt Michelle Thomson is stepping down and former local MP Martyn Day is taking her place. Falkirk councillor and social worker Siobhan Paterson is his Labour opponent.

Tactical vote: Labour

Falkirk West

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 11,839

Second-placed 2021: Labour

ANOTHER seat where the SNP has been rocked by scandal, Falkirk West had been held by party veteran Michael Matheson since 2007.

His electoral sparkle vanished after he quit as health secretary in 2024 for trying to charge taxpayers £11,000 for an iPad bill run up by his sons watching football on holiday in Morocco.

Trying to hang on for the Nationalists is Falkirk councillor Gary Bouse. Attempting to overcome the SNP’s daunting lead is Labour’s Paul Godzik, a former Edinburgh councillor who grew up in the Denny part of the constituency.

Tactical vote: Labour

Motherwell and Wishaw

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 7,813

Second-placed 2021: Labour

ONCE the political home of Labour first minister Jack McConnell, Motherwell and Wishaw has been SNP since Clare Adamson won it for the Nationalists in 2016.

The less-than-dynamic chair of Holyrood’s constitution committee in the last parliament, Adamson is defending the seat again after seeing off a series of Labour hopefuls down the years.

Her Labour rival this time is Motherwell councillor Ayeshah Khan, a qualified yoga teacher and founder of the Health and Wellness Hub, a respected anti-poverty charity in the former steel town.

Tactical vote: Labour

Uddingston and Bellshill

Incumbent: SNP

Majority: 5,306

Second-placed 2021: Labour

ONE of many parts of the Central Belt to flip from SNP to Labour at the general election, Uddingston and Bellshill is set to be another tight race in May. The SNP’s losing MP in the equivalent Westminster seat in 2024, Steven Bonnar, returns as the reheated Nationalist candidate.

His opponent is one of Scottish Labour’s smoother MSPs, Mark Griffin. He previously tried in vain to win in Cumbernauld and Kilsyth and has now moved south with hopes of overturning one of the SNP’s smallest leads in Central Scotland.

Tactical vote: Labour