A majority of Scots do not believe John Swinney will reduce the cost of living, grow the economy or improve Scotland’s public services if he remains First Minister.

Pollster Ipsos found voters had ‘pretty low expectations’ that he would address their key concerns despite him claiming he can fix all three.

Expectations were even lower for the leaders of Labour and Reform in Scotland.

With a fortnight until polling, Ipsos said the public was ‘extremely sceptical’ about whoever leads the next government being able to ‘shift the dial’ on household bills.

It came as a Survation poll for the Ballot Box Scotland (BBS) website pointed to the SNP falling short of the majority that Mr Swinney has made central to his campaign. BBS founder Allan Faulds said it pointed to a ‘bleeding of support’ for the party.

Scottish Tory deputy leader Rachael Hamilton said: ‘After two decades of SNP failure it’s no wonder that Scots don’t believe they can fix things if they win the election. From the ferries fiasco to plummeting educational standards and an NHS in permanent crisis, John Swinney’s record is one of abject failure.

‘If he gets a majority at the Holyrood election, we know his top priority will be securing another divisive independence referendum at all costs – not the real issues facing Scots.’

The Ipsos Scotland Political Pulse survey of 1,032 adults in mid-April found 61 per cent thought it ‘unlikely’ Mr Swinney would cut the cost of living if he led the next government, compared with 26 per cent who thought he would, a credibility rating of -35 points.

Half thought it likely he could grow the economy, against 35 per cent who said unlikely (-15), while 46 per cent said he was unlikely to improve public services and 41 per cent thought he was likely (-5).

Labour’s Anas Sarwar had credibility ratings of -43, -34 and -24 respectively on helping with the cost of living, economy and services, while Reform’s Malcolm Offord had ratings of -49, -40 and -43.

Mr Swinney was the most popular leader with a net approval rating of -1 per cent.

Mr Sarwar was on -21 and Tory leader Russell Findlay -34. All main leaders improved their ratings since March – except Lord Offord, who suffered a 6 point drop and was the least popular on net -43.

All parties marginally improved their popularity ratings since March bar Reform, which fell slightly.

The SNP was judged to have had the best campaign so far.

It was the only one to achieve a positive net rating (+6), with the others ranging from -1 for the Greens to -23 for the Conservatives.

Despite opposition efforts to brand him ‘Dishonest John’, Mr Swinney was viewed as the most likely leader to act with integrity, with a net trust rating of +7, against -9 for Mr Sarwar and -43 for Lord Offord.

Ipsos Scotland managing director Emily Gray said: ‘Scottish voters have pretty low expectations of what the SNP would actually deliver if it were to win a fifth term.

‘The cost of living is the second most important issue, but six in ten of the Scottish public think it’s unlikely an SNP-led government will reduce the cost of living.

‘Half think an SNP Scottish Government would be unlikely to grow the economy.

‘Voters are a bit more divided on whether the SNP would improve public services or not, but even there more think it’s unlikely to improve them than think it’s likely to. It’s not that Scottish voters are deeply enthusiastic about the SNP – it’s that they don’t see an alternative who they think will do a better job.

‘The SNP emerge from this, from the public’s perspective, as the best of a somewhat disappointing bunch.’

She also said the chances of a pro-Union majority at Holyrood led by Mr Sarwar after May 7 ‘look pretty slim’.

The poll put the SNP on 35 per cent support in constituencies, unchanged from March, with Labour and Reform both on 20 (both +1), the Tories 13 (+2), Liberal Democrats 10 (+2) and Greens 1 (-7).

On the regional list, the SNP was on 29 (-3), Reform 19 (+1) and Labour, Tories, Greens and LibDems all unchanged on 17, 13, 11 and 8 respectively.

The figures gave a seat projection of SNP 57 (down 7 on 2021), Reform 21 (+21), Labour 18 (-4), Tories 13 (-18), Greens 11 (+3) and LibDems 9 (+5).

Mr Faulds said the slump in the Greens’ constituency support – they are standing in only six seats – was not boosting the SNP, which ‘may indicate a bleeding of the support’ for Mr Swinney’s party.

Justice Secretary Angela Constance said: ‘The SNP is the only party in this campaign speaking to the priorities of the people of Scotland – improving the NHS, supporting people with the cost of living and delivering the fresh start of independence.’