Oil prices could shoot up beyond $150 per barrel if trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted as the US-Iran ceasefire was entering a “difficult phase”. 

Research company Kpler said that problems across the Strait could prompt markets to change tune and lead to oil prices jumping higher. 

The Brent crude oil price, an international benchmark, dropped to around $94 per barrel, with hopes growing among investors that the ceasefire could bring a return to normality in trade patterns across the Middle East. 

Kpler analyst Naveen Das warned that market changes since the ceasefire had exposed a “degree of complacency” in pricing. 

“As it stands, we are still only seeing a handful of crude oil vessels leave the Strait of Hormuz on a daily basis,” Das said. 

“If this pace continues, with Strait of Hormuz transits being the key to the whole pricing environment, we would still probably move towards all-time highs. There seems to be a degree of complacency in ICE Brent futures pricing for now.”

The last record high for Brent was $147.50  per barrel in 2008 but Das suggested that prices could rise to as much as $170 per barrel if ships carrying crude oil were unable to get through the strait in the near term.

Oil prices hinge on peace talks

The two-week ceasefire announced earlier this week has raised questions about the future of commodity trading in the region. 

President Trump and Iranian officials have mooted the prospect of imposing a toll on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical for around a fifth of global oil and gas supplies. 

Pakistani mediators warned that the ceasefire had entered a “difficult phase” after vice-president JD Vance landed in Islamabad to advance negotiations. 

Pakistan prime minister Shehbaz Sharif said upcoming meetings were a “make-or-break” moment. 

Vance warned Iran’s leaders not to “play us” in negotiations for a peace deal. 

Markets will be watching closely for any developments in talks between involved countries. 

Economists have warned that, should oil prices top $150 per barrel, the UK economy would plunge into a recession.