Good morning and welcome back to the City AM liveblog.

Interest rates are expected to be left unchanged at 3.75 per cent when Bank of England’s monetary policy committee meets today as rate-setters wait to find out whether the Iran war peace deal holds up. 

The Bank’s decision will follow Thursday’s inflation data, which stayed below undershot expectations after coming at 2.8 per cent, unchanged from the month prior.

But economists have still said inflation could be near four per cent later this year and at the beginning of 2027. The Bank has also previously warned that it could reach six per cent in the worst case scenario. 

The future of price rises largely depends on whether the Strait of Hormuz fully re-opens following the peace deal between the US and Iran, and behaviours across businesses. 

Donald Trump inked a 14-point agreement with Iran last night, as he claimed it delivered a “major win” for the United States. Meanwhile, Iran’s chief negotiator said the agreement was a record of US “failure”.

The move was enough to send Brent crude tumbling further, with oil prices down to $77 per barrel on the news.

Trump said the alternative to the deal “would be a worldwide depression” and argued that if he had not struck a deal, “the strait [of Hormuz] would never have been opened.

“They don’t like floating billion-dollar ships up and down the strait when their rockets are flying overhead and there are mines all over the place.”

Earlier that day the President warned there could have been an “economic catastrophe” if the war in Iran had continued.

We’ll be bringing you the latest on the Bank of England decision and all the market reaction.

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