Supermarkets and pubs may be banking on a bumper summer of football to drive up sales but new insight from Circana, LLC shows cost-of-living pressures mean this year’s big tournament unlikely to lead to a big increase in grocery spending.

Small rises in the amount of beer and snacks bought when Euro 2024 aired did not lead to a major rise in the money shoppers spent, according to Circana’s analysis, as prices fell due to brands running more promotions to capture a bigger share of the market.

A similar trend is expected this year, as shoppers continue to deal with higher living costs and look for way to enjoy games at home without spending much more on food and drink.

The amount of beer and lager purchased in shops grew 0.9% year-on-year during the summer of 2024 when England reached the Euro finals, with spending up by just 1.1% compared to 2023. Crisps and snacks volumes increased by 1.4% but heavy promotions meant actual spending increased by only 0.5%.

This was still behind the longer term trends for both categories, with football fever  encouraging extra consumption but not enough to offset the promotional discounts to deliver a clear value sales boost.

Pub and bars could see a stronger effect if this year’s tournament follows a similar pattern to the Euros when there was an estimated 6 million more visits during June and July according to Circana CREST data. The number of pints purchased increased by 10% and there was an 18% rise in the number of glasses of wine served as England progressed through the 2024 tournament.

Alex Lawrence, senior strategic insight director for UK CPG at Circana, said: “The excitement around England and Scotland games should boost beer and snack retail sales but the tournament is landing just as the cost of living situation worsens and more shoppers are looking to manage their grocery spend. Even the most ardent fans will look to trade down to cheaper products, buy on promotion and hold back on the beers just a little.

“The danger for brands is that they may sell more product but give away too much value through discounts to deliver year-on-year value sales growth.

Seton Leung, head of UK foodservice at Circana added: “Pub, bar and restaurant visits have fallen by 2% in the last year so the tournament could generate some much much-needed footfall this summer.

“People are watching what they spend but major games could still persuade people out to the pub, particularly if England and Scotland do well and operators make the most of extended opening hours to turn any excitement into more visits, social occasions and sales.”

About Circana

Circana is a leader in providing technology, AI, and data to fast-moving consumer packaged goods companies, durables manufacturers, and retailers seeking to optimise their businesses. Circana’s predictive analytics and technology empower clients to measure their market share, understand the underlying consumer behavior driving it, and accelerate their growth. Circana’s Liquid Data® technology platform is powered by an expansive, high-quality data set, and intelligent algorithms trained on six decades of domain expertise. With Circana, clients can take immediate action to future-proof and evolve their growth strategies amid an increasingly complex, fast-paced, and ever-changing economy.