Electric Vehicle Outlook | BloombergNEF

FLAGSHIP REPORT

BloombergNEF’s flagship report examines how electrification and broader industry shifts are reshaping road transport and associated industries over the coming decades.

FLAGSHIP REPORT

Electric Vehicle Outlook 2026

BloombergNEF’s flagship report examines how electrification and broader industry shifts are reshaping road transport and associated industries over the coming decades.

New features in this year’s outlook

Expanded market coverage: Mexico and Spain join our core list of markets that also includes the US (with a breakout for California), China, Japan, India, Canada, South Korea, Australia, Germany, UK, France, Italy, Brazil, the Nordics, and Southeast Asia.
New modeling for plug-in hybrids, more granular segment analysis of battery-electric vehicle upfront pricing, regional battery pricing and added detail on total-cost of ownership modelling that all impact the outlook for EV adoption.
Updated battery chemistry outlook across cathode, anode and electrolyte components based on the latest technology and market developments. Including new outlooks for natural and synthetic graphite. .
Analysis on the impact of Iran war.
Read on for a high-level preview or download the EVO 2026 Executive Summary.

All data presented in the report are made available to clients via web tools, data viewers and as a downloadable excel file.

2026 and the years ahead

The transition to electric vehicles is uneven, with varying rates of adoption across vehicle types and markets. Buses and two- and three-wheelers are leading the way, closing in on 50% market share. Electric vans, trucks and passenger cars are still on a growth trajectory that could see them surpassing a 50% share of global sales by 2035.

Electric vehicle share of sales

Note: All figures are BloombergNEF’s outlook for 2026 and 2035. Percentages are the electric vehicle share of new sales in each segment. Includes battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles.

Passenger EV sales continue to rise in 2026, reaching 23.3 million globally, despite regulatory changes putting markets on divergent trajectories. This represents an 11% rise from 2025 and is underpinned by China, which continues to account for the bulk of global EV sales, alongside rising momentum in Europe, Southeast Asia, India, Mexico and Brazil.

Global passenger EV sales by market

Global passenger EV sales by drivetrain

Global passenger EV sales by market

Global passenger EV sales by drivetrain

Global passenger EV sales by market

Global passenger EV sales by drivetrain

Source: BloombergNEF, MarkLines, Jato Dynamics
Note: Includes highway-capable passenger EVs. Range-extender electric vehicles are a variant of plug-in hybrids with an on-board power generator that charges the battery. 2026e is BNEF’s forecast for the year.

Lithium-ion battery demand

Road transport remains the largest source of battery demand, but growth is slower than previously expected. This is mainly due to weakening passenger EV sales in some major markets as well as the growing share of plug-in hybrids and range-extender EVs, which use smaller batteries than battery-electric vehicles. Stronger demand from stationary storage, however, offsets this decline.

Major automakers, led by General Motors, Ford and Volkswagen, are expanding their battery businesses beyond electric vehicles into large-scale energy storage. New cell manufacturing capacity is increasingly directed toward energy storage systems, especially in the US.

Annual lithium-ion battery demand by application

Lithium-ion-battery-demand_2016px_desktop

Source: BloombergNEF
Note: Excludes consumer electronics

Lithium-ion-battery-demand_1408px_tablet

Source: BloombergNEF
Note: Excludes consumer electronics

Source: BloombergNEF
Note: Excludes consumer electronics

EV charging infrastructure

Public charging networks for electric vehicles grew 28% in 2025 from the year before, pushing the number of connectors to 6.7 million. The industry is on track for slower growth in 2026, though new installations are set to increase by 19%.

While China continues to account for the largest share of new charger installations, other markets are growing quickly. In 2025, the number of installed ultra-fast charging connectors in both Europe and the US grew almost 50% from the year prior.

Cumulative global public charging connectors

EV-charging-infrastructure_2016px_desktop

Source: BloombergNEF, Eco-Movement, China Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Promotion Alliance, Korea Environment Corporation, EVgogo.

EV-charging-infrastructure_1408px_tablet

Source: BloombergNEF, Eco-Movement, China Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Promotion Alliance, Korea Environment Corporation, EVgogo.

Source: BloombergNEF, Eco-Movement, China Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Promotion Alliance, Korea Environment Corporation, EVgogo.

Key dates

Road transport oil demand peak

The number of robotaxis on the road surpasses 1 million vehicles

Electric passenger vehicles surpass 50% of sales

Over two-thirds of car, van and truck sales are electric

Electric passenger vehicles on the road outnumber internal combustion engine vehicles

645 million tailpipe emitting passenger vehicles still on the road

Get the free Executive Summary

Enter your details to download the executive summary and find out more on the implications of EV adoption for energy markets, raw materials, emissions, charging infrastructure and more.

BNEF clients can access the full report, including the breakdown by segment, technology and region, as well as the underlying Excel data and previous editions.

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