JJ Spaun (+5500 to win)

Spaun, when it’s all said and done, could be classified as an outlier. Wins the big one and not much else. I don’t see it that way. His performance at Oakmont last year was a masterclass in guts. Look no further than the bomb he made on the last hole to win. His form is in question leading up to Shinnecock but to be fair no one had him last year either. Defending champions have fared pretty well here in the past. This guy is a gamer so I wouldn’t be too surprised to see him put up a spirited defense. If his short game traveled to Long Island, watch out for Spaun.

Aaron Rai (+6500 to win)

The reigning, defending PGA Champion put a chokehold on this year’s second major and put the field to sleep. A magical short game on Sunday allowed Rai to separate himself and grab his first major. It goes without saying the better putters this week will be on top of the leaderboard and Rai is as good with the flatstick as anyone in the world right now. Confidence is everything on tour in general and majors

In particular. Who is more confident than Rai at the moment? Rory McIlroy, probably. No one else. The kid makes a run. You’ll see him Sunday late.

Adam Scott (+7500 to win)

The Aussie has been playing well. A thinking man’s golfer who can still hit shots as well as anyone. He will need all of his experience to handle Shinnecock’s greens. Putting has always been a notch below the rest of his incredible game and can his nerves hold up. Scott should have won more majors than his lone Masters victory. His window is starting to close at the age of 45. The course fits him. His form is always up to it. Will the putter come along for the ride? I say absolutely yes. A play for the top ten at +625 is a solid offering.

Keegan Bradley (+10000 to win)

This is a gut pick, nothing else. Another grizzled veteran much like Adam Scott, Bradley has found renewed form the last couple of years. A native of the northeast (Vermont), Bradley will feel at home on Long Island. He’ll have support. His Ryder Cup disappointment fuels him still. He had a major, the 2011 PGA Championship, his major debut in fact. Again, like Scott, he was expected to win more. His window to contend hasn’t shrunk all that much. Good vibes early in the week will propel him to contend. I want to see him in the final few groups and if he comes up short I hope it’s because he was outplayed rather than fade down the stretch. I love the play at +10000. I love the top ten number at +1000. It’s all or nothing here. Play the extremely long shot on a guy that deserves it.

Prediction

Keegan Bradley and Aaron Rai will make some noise at Shinnecock. Bradley may not quite keep pace. Rai will be on the mix at the end, losing to Scheffler by two shots, tied with Xander Schauffele.

Bonus prediction: Bryson DeChambeau misses the cut and announces he will focus on his YouTube channel, saying “my goal is to have more subscribers than IShowSpeed and Mr. Beast combined”.

Congrats LIV, you’ve hurt another career.