Owen Caissie could be celebrating a home run at homer-friendly Yankee Stadium today.
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Through the early portion of the season, the MLB best home run bets are doing well. I’ve correctly predicted home runs from two different players at +400 odds each while missing on five selections. One selection also turned into a returned wager because the player didn’t start.
Overall, anyone who bet $100 on each of the touted home run props would be up $300. Still, it’s a challenging prop to correctly predict, which is why the odds are long for home run bets. There will be ups and downs during the rest of the season.
Today’s best home run bets have some eye-catching odds. The first has +600 odds, the longest featured in this piece so far this year. The other home run prop has odds of +350. Hitting on one or both of the following home run bets would be outstanding for the season total and provide some wiggle room for an inevitable cold streak.
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+600) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Owen Caissie appeared in 12 games and logged 27 plate appearances for the Cubs last year, and he’s played in six games and tallied 23 plate appearances for the Marlins this year. The 23-year-old slugger is in the early stages of his career.
The left-handed-hitting outfielder’s game power earned 55 current and 60 future grades from FanGraphs on the 20-to-80 scouting scale, and his raw power is even more impressive, with a present grade of 65 and a future of 70. Caissie tapped into his power for one homer last year and another in the early going this year.
However, he hit a more impressive 22 home runs in 433 plate appearances in Triple-A last season. Caissie did most of his long-ball damage with the platoon advantage. He hit 19 home runs in 320 plate appearances against right-handed pitching in Triple-A last season. Caissie has also hit both of his home runs in the Majors against righties.
Caissie has a fine matchup and ideal park factors to reach the seats today. Will Warren has allowed 14 homers, 1.29 homers per nine innings (HR/9) and 12.5% homers per fly-ball (HR/FB) to 458 left-handed batters faced in his career.
The bigger draw for betting on Caissie to hit a homer today is the park factors at Yankee Stadium. The 119 park factor for home runs at Yankee Stadium from 2023 through 2025 is the third-highest in MLB. Getting +600 odds at FanDuel for Caissie to take advantage of a decent matchup and drool-inducing park factors for homers at Yankee Stadium is too good to pass up.
Corey Seager has already smashed three homers this year and could add another today.
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Over 0.5 Home Runs (+350) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Corey Seager’s +350 odds to homer offered at FanDuel Sportsbook aren’t as tantalizing as Caissie’s odds, but the veteran shortstop is more established, and the odds are still tasty. Seager hit 33, 33 and 30 homers from 2022 through 2024 before dipping to 21 last year. Injuries played a hand in his falling short of 30 homers for the first time since 2021, as Seager was limited to 102 games and 445 plate appearances.
Fortunately, Seager’s batted-ball quality was pristine when he was healthy last season. Among 251 qualified batters in 2025, Seager was 18th in barrels per plate appearance rate (10.1%), 21st in barrels per batted-ball-event rate (15.3%), tied for 19th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.7 mph) and tied for 91st in maximum exit velocity (92.9 mph).
Seager is also off to a blistering start this year. Among 276 qualified batters in 2026, Seager is tied for 16th in barrels per plate appearance rate (14.3%), tied for 20th in barrels per batted-ball-event rate (22.2%), 22nd in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (99.6 mph), tied for 41st in maximum exit velocity (110.3 mph) and tied for 76th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (38.9%).
Seager has hit three home runs already this year in six games, putting him in a tie for the third-most homers in 2026. The 31-year-old righty can add to his total against a righty at home today. Seager has ripped 19 round-trippers in 327 plate appearances against right-handed pitching at home since 2024, which amounts to one per 17.2 plate appearances.
Brady Singer is a stellar matchup for Seager as well. Singer has allowed 15 homers, 1.44 HR/9 and 13.4% HR/FB to 404 left-handed batters faced since last season. Seager’s +350 odds to hit a homer today make him one of the top home run bets of Friday.
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