MLB Best Home Run Bets

Nick Kurtz (Athletics - 1B)

Over 0.5 Home Runs (+350) at theScore Bet

After hitting 36 home runs in 489 plate appearances for the Athletics as a rookie in 2025, Nick Kurtz’s five homers through 167 plate appearances this year have been a disappointment. Fortunately, Kurtz’s underlying data is still outstanding, and the home runs should come more frequently if he continues to crush the baseball.

Among 274 qualified batters this year, Kurtz is tied for 60th in barrels per plate appearance rate (7.9%), 22nd in barrels per batted-ball event rate (16.5%), sixth in hard-hit rate (58.2%), fifth in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (99.5 mph) and tied for 20th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (41.8%). Kurtz also has a 13.0-degree launch angle, 26.6% line-drive rate, 35.4% fly-ball rate, 17.9% home runs per fly-ball (HR/FB) rate and 34.2% pull rate. Kurtz’s launch angle, fly-ball rate and pull rate are all down slightly this year from last season, but his batted-ball profile still bodes well for home runs.

The left-handed slugger is especially lethal with the platoon advantage. Kurtz has hit all five of his home runs this year in 108 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, and he’s hit 32 of his 41 career homers in 444 plate appearances against righties.

Fortunately, Kurtz isn’t just feasting on righties in his homer-friendly home ballpark. Instead, he’s hit 17 home runs in 236 career plate appearances against righties on the road compared to hitting 15 homers in 208 career plate appearances against righties at home.

Kurtz will also get a lift from the hitting conditions in Baltimore tonight. Oriole Park at Camden Yards has had the second-highest park factor for homers (122) since last year, even higher than Sutter Health Park’s park factor of 115 for homers.

Kurtz also has a decent matchup to hit a home run tonight. Kyle Bradish has allowed five home runs at 1.32 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) this year, coughing up at least one homer in four of seven starts, including allowing at least one and four in total in his previous three starts. Additionally, Baltimore’s relievers have allowed 1.24 HR/9, tying for the third-highest rate among MLB bullpens this season. Kurtz should muscle up for a home run and deliver a winner for people who bet on his home run prop.

Drake Baldwin (Atlanta Braves - C)

Over 0.5 Home Runs (+458) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Drake Baldwin has blistering batted-ball data this year. Among 274 qualified hitters this season, Baldwin is tied for 31st in barrels per plate appearance rate (9.8%), 42nd in barrels per batted-ball even rate (14.3%), tied for 35th in hard-hit rate (50.0%), tied for 11th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (98.0 mph) and 41st in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (39.2%).

Baldwin has converted his excellent batted-ball data into nine home runs in 174 plate appearances this year, including six homers in 110 plate appearances against righties and four home runs in 61 plate appearances against right-handed pitching on the road this season. The left-handed-hitting catcher has hit 21 of his 28 career home runs in 461 plate appearances against righties.

The 25-year-old catcher has a favorable matchup and dreamy park factors tonight. Emmet Sheehan has allowed six homers at 1.74 HR/9 in six starts this year, serving up at least one homer in four of his six starts and permitting two homers in two of those turns. Furthermore, UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium’s 132 park factor for homers since last season is MLB’s highest. Baldwin should hit his 10th homer of the year tonight, which would make his home run bet a winner.