Best Strikeout Bets

Trevor Rogers (Baltimore Orioles - SP)

Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-144) at FanDuel Sportsbook

It appeared Trevor Rogers was a burgeoning ace in 2021. Unfortunately, he slumped in 2022, and he was unimpressive or worse in 2023 and 2024 as well. The rough skid wasn’t the end of Rogers’ success in the Majors, though.

He reemerged as an outstanding pitcher in 2025. In 18 starts spanning 109.2 innings last season, Rogers spun a 1.81 ERA, 3.40 xERA, 3.64 xFIP, 3.75 SIERA and 0.90 WHIP. The lefty also had a robust 24.3% strikeout rate and a career-low 6.9% walk rate.

Rogers’ stellar strikeout rate was supported by his 12.5% swinging-strike rate – 11.0% was the league average in 2025 – and 27.9% called-plus-swinging-strike rate. The southpaw pitched well at home and on the road.

Still, Rogers did his best work in front of his home crowd. In seven home starts spanning 47 innings last season, Rogers had a 0.96 ERA, 3.47 xFIP, 0.70 WHIP, 5.3% walk rate and 26.3% strikeout rate.

Rogers cleared 4.5 strikeouts in 14 of 18 starts in 2025, including six of seven at home. His matchup is decent for his strikeout outlook on Opening Day.

Roster Resource projects Minnesota’s lineups against left-handed pitchers to feature Byron Buxton, Josh Bell, Luke Keaschall, Matt Wallner, Victor Caratini, Austin Martin, Ryan Jeffers, Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee. Five of those projected starters have had at least a 20% strikeout rate against lefties since 2024, or since reaching the Majors in 2025, and Martin’s 18.2% strikeout rate is the lowest from the nine projected starters.

Rogers’ -144 line for over 4.5 strikeouts is a bit chalky, but it’s the best value across sportsbooks and palatable.

Cristopher Sanchez (Philadelphia Phillies - SP)

Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-141) at BetRivers

Cristopher Sanchez has blossomed into one of MLB’s best pitchers. After back-to-back strong showings for the Phillies in 2023 and 2024, Sanchez kicked it up a notch in 2025.

Among 52 qualified pitchers last year, Sanchez was fifth in ERA (2.50), fifth in xERA (3.02), third in xFIP (2.77), third in SIERA (3.02), tied for 11th in WHIP (1.06), tied for eighth in walk rate (5.5%), 14th in strikeout rate (26.3%), fourth in swinging-strike rate (13.9%), second in called-plus-swinging-strike rate (31.4%), second in Stuff+ (118) and fourth in Pitching+ (116).

Sanchez also had the fourth-highest ground-ball rate (58.3%) among qualified pitchers last season. The lefty’s ability to induce worm-burners won’t directly help him record strikeouts, but being able to coax a grounder when he falls behind in the count to keep his pitch count low, or snare a double play when he has a runner or runners on, can keep him in the game longer to record strikeouts.

Moreover, his ability to collect grounders at a high rate can help him navigate the pitfalls of homer-friendly Citizens Bank Park. Sanchez was borderline unstoppable at home last season.

In 15 starts spanning 97.2 innings at home in 2025, Sanchez twirled a 1.94 ERA and 0.90 WHIP, with a 4.5% walk rate and 30.5% strikeout rate. He struck out 115 batters at home, for an average of 7.7 per game. Furthermore, Sanchez exceeded 5.5 punchouts in 12 of 15 home starts in 2025.

Sanchez has a tasty matchup for his strikeout potential today. All nine of the projected starters for the Rangers have had at least a 20% strikeout rate against lefties since 2024, and five have had at least a 24.1% strikeout rate.

Sanchez should carve up the Rangers and have no problem with clearing 5.5 punchouts, making his -141 line for over 5.5 strikeouts offered at BetRivers good chalk to eat on Opening Day.