HOUSTON, TEXAS - MARCH 16: LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers dunks the ball against forward Jabari Smith Jr. #10 of the Houston Rockets during the game at Toyota Center on March 16, 2026 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Kenneth Richmond/Getty Images)
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Despite being down their starting backcourt of Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves, the Los Angeles Lakers have shockingly handed the Houston Rockets three consecutive losses to open their first-round series.
With an elimination scenario now on tap Sunday night, we explore a three-leg same-game parlay that could deliver handsome returns on investment:
(Odds listed are best at time of publishing)
A scenario that would have been difficult to envision before the series tipped off unfolds Sunday night at Toyota Center, with the Lakers in position to execute a clean first-round sweep of Houston and accomplish the second part of it on the Rockets’ home floor.
While Dončić has already been ruled out for Los Angeles, Reaves (oblique) is listed as questionable for the second straight game and could therefore appear in at least a limited role. However, the biggest injury-related matter looming over the potentially decisive Game 4 is the availability of Kevin Durant, who missed his second contest over the first three games of the series Friday due to an ankle sprain he’d suffered in Game 2.
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Irrespective of KD’s availability, it’s evident the Lakers have found the right formula for attacking the Rockets, even as all three games have been very competitive. The Lakers’ ability to tough out a 112-108 overtime victory in Game 3 in enemy territory was a study in resilience, as LeBron James and co. had to bounce back in the extra period after forsaking an 11-point halftime lead.
The Lakers’ average margin of victory over the first three games is 6.7 points. However, even when factoring in the three straight wins – and five victories over the last six games overall against the Rockets dating back to the start of the regular season – oddsmakers have made Houston a 4.5-point favorite for Sunday night. That number could certainly shrink or slightly expand depending on what way Durant’s health goes, but in any case, it does gives us a good foundation for the first leg of our parlay.
We’re going to take advantage of FanDuel Sportsbook’s Alt. Spread feature and give the Lakers the benefit of an additional 8.0 full points, pushing their line to +12.5. That builds in quite a bit more cushion to account for a potential Rockets resurgence borne out of equal parts pride and desperation. The Lakers also have a -0.4-point average scoring margin on the road since the start of the regular season per Team Rankings, so Los Angeles certainly knows how to keep matters close when traveling.
For our second leg, we’ll focus on LeBron, who has been the heart and soul of the team in the absence of his star teammates and has demonstrated he’s still capable of carrying a team on his shoulders for multiple games when necessary. The future Hall of Famer is averaging 43.7 points + rebounds + assists across 40.7 minutes per game in the first three installments of the first-round clash, per RotoWire, shooting 47.4%, including 43.8% from three-point range, in the process.
James will undoubtedly remain heavily involved Sunday as the Lakers look to put an early end to the series and get some valuable rest ahead of the second round. LeBron’s usage rates over the first three games have checked in at 23.8%, 37.0% and 34.1%, and he’s putting up 19.0 field-goal attempts and 7.3 free-throw tries per contest over that span as well. Therefore, another busy night is in store whether or not Reaves suits up, putting the 35.5 points + rebounds + assists figure in play during what projects as a competitive game.
For our third and final leg we’re turning to the Rockets’ Jabari Smith, who’s been very productive against the Lakers both during the current series, and in the regular season as well. Per RotoWire, Smith has contributed 27.3 points + rebounds and shot a blistering 46.2% from three-point range in Games 1-3, with two of those coming sans Durant as noted earlier. That was preceded by a tally of 25.4 points + rebounds on 53.7% shooting across 38.0 minutes per game in his three regular-season encounters with Los Angeles.
Even if KD is able to make it on the floor Sunday, it remains to be seen if he won’t operate under some form of restriction. Smith averaged 22.8 points + rebounds per 36 minutes when sharing the floor with his teammate during the regular season, per RotoWire’s On/Off Court tool, and he operated at a clip of 23.8 points + rebounds per 36 during Game 2 over the 31.7 minutes he was on the court with his star teammate.
Consequently, the Over on 22.5 points + rebounds in an elimination game certainly isn’t difficult to get on board with, especially considering there’s at least a 50/50 chance Durant sits and Smith has cleared that figure in all three games to date.
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