MLB Best Home Run Bets

Carter Jensen (Kansas City Royals - C)

Over 0.5 Home Runs (+412) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Carter Jensen hit his first home run of the year on Sunday after launching three long balls for the Kansas City Royals in his first 69 plate appearances in the Majors last year. Jensen also hit 20 home runs in 492 plate appearances in the minors last year, and his power earned favorable scouting grades from FanGraphs, with 50 present game power and 55 future game power, as well as 55 present raw power and 60 future raw power on the 20-to-80 scouting scale.

Jensen had just 48 batted-ball events last year because of his limited time in the Majors. Nonetheless, he made the most of the small sample to demonstrate his pop.

Among 557 batters with at least 25 batted-ball events last season, Jensen was first in barrels per plate appearance rate (14.5%), fourth in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (100.2 mph) and tied for 18th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (41.7%). Jensen had a knack for hitting the ball hard when he lifted it.

Jensen has done all of his home run damage with the platoon advantage. He’s hit each of his four homers in the Majors against right-handed pitching.

Simeon Woods Richardson is the righty who has the unenviable task of facing Jensen today. The 25-year-old righty struggled mightily on the road last season.

In 50.1 innings on the road last year, Woods Richardson allowed 10 homers and 1.79 HR/9. He ceded six homers and 2.19 HR/9 to 101 left-handed batters faced on the road in 2025.

Jensen’s odds of hitting a home run and Woods Richardson’s chances of coughing one up to the hard-hitting second-year big-leaguer will get a lift from the offseason renovations at Kauffman Stadium, which should increase homers in Kansas City this year. Unattentive gamblers might be unaware of those changes, meaning the renovations might not be entirely baked into Jensen’s tasty +412 odds to hit a home run today offered at DraftKings Sportsbook. Readers should take advantage of the sweet odds for Jensen to hit a homer this afternoon.

Brent Rooker (Athletics - OF)

Over 0.5 Home Runs (+379) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Brent Rooker has blossomed into one of MLB’s best home run hitters since joining the Athletics in 2023. Rooker’s 99 homers since 2023 are the ninth most in MLB. He’s ripped at least 30 round-trippers in all three of his full seasons with the A’s.

Rooker hasn’t gotten on the board with a home run in 2026. Still, three games and 13 plate appearances are small samples. Among 251 qualified hitters in 2025, Rooker was tied for 24th in barrels per plate appearance rate (9.3%), tied for 81st in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (94.7 mph), tied for 71st in maximum exit velocity (113.3 mph) and 18th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (39.7%). Rooker also had a 16.4-degree launch angle, 22.0% line-drive rate, 41.6% fly-ball rate and 15.2% homers per fly-ball (HR/FB) rate.

Rooker wasn’t a slouch in same-handed matchups. Instead, he hit 25 of his 30 home runs last year in 538 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers. Rooker also hit 16 of his 30 home runs in 355 plate appearances on the road.

Rooker has a favorable matchup and decent hitting conditions tonight. Bryce Elder allowed 14 homers and 1.64 HR/9 to 344 right-handed batters last season. Moreover, he coughed up seven homers, 1.67 HR/9 and 16.3% HR/FB to 189 right-handed batters faced at home last year.

Truist Park also has a park factor of 104 for homers over the last three years, tying for the 10th-highest park factor of homers during those three years. Rooker’s home run prop is too tantalizing to pass up at +379 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.