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Welcome to the Madness. Now let’s put some mad money in your pocket.
NCAA Tournament first round games on Thursday and Friday look interesting.
The one-seeds will roll. The two-seeds look comfortable. After that, I see some opportunities for upsets and some nice value picks. Here are five games I’m particularly interested in.
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook.
AUSTIN, TEXAS - JANUARY 14: Duke Miles #2 of the Vanderbilt Commodores shoots over Jordan Pope #0 of the Texas Longhorns during the second half at Moody Center on January 14, 2026 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Scott Wachter/Getty Images)
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I know I’m reaching here because Vanderbilt is very good, but still, for an early game on the first day of the Big Dance, you know half of America isn’t working and going to be watching this one. Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles are ballers. The Commodores navigated the SEC and played for the conference tournament championship. If they escape, McNeese look out. They could go on a run.
The Cowboys are afraid of no one. Look for them to try to punch Vanderbilt in the face early and hold on late. The backcourt is their strength. Freshman Larry Johnson could contribute to a bunch of power four programs. Tyshawn Archie compliments him well. If the Cowboys can hold their own inside and rebound, this becomes a competitive affair. Best value pick here. Take the points as a hedge. This would be a big upset.
CHAPEL HILL, NORTH CAROLINA - FEBRUARY 07: Cameron Boozer #12 of the Duke Blue Devils battles Henri Veesaar #13 of the North Carolina Tar Heels for a rebound during the first half of the game at Dean E. Smith Center on February 07, 2026 in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
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Another 11/6 matchup where I like the lower seed. North Carolina has been wildly inconsistent all year. Good wins (Duke, Kansas) and bad losses (Stanford, Cal). Which team shows up? Henri Veesaar must play as big as his seven-foot frame. They must shoot the three well.
VCU is riding a six-game win streak. Terence Hill Jr. is their leading scorer and can fill it up. If he can beat the defense, VCU will pull the upset. I think the Tar Heels are over-seeded a bit. Take the Rams. Friendly advice, also take under the 152.5 total.
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - MARCH 14: Tre Johnson #20 of the Texas Longhorns against the Tennessee Volunteers during the SEC Men's Basketball Tournament - Quarterfinals at Bridgestone Arena on March 14, 2025 in Nashville, Tennessee. at Bridgestone Arena on March 14, 2025 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
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After surviving a thriller in the play-in game against North Carolina State, the Longhorns face sixth-seeded BYU. Texas will need leading scorer Dailyn Swain to shake off his bad shooting night and play big.
BYU must rediscover its early-season form. Wooden Award candidate AJ Dybansta needs to be the best player on the floor for the Cougars to advance. The line is razor thin at 1.5.
I like Texas here. They are a good defensive team, and if they can limit Dybansta, they’ll win. The Longhorns pull the (mild) upset.
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - MARCH 21: Otega Oweh #00 of the Kentucky Wildcats dunks the ball in the second half against the Troy Trojans in the first round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Fiserv Forum on March 21, 2025 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
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This is an upset only because of the seeding. I, along with everyone else, can’t figure Kentucky out. They have the largest NIL budget in the SEC. Otega Oweh and company were expected to dominate. Denzel Aberdeen was a player I thought could average 20 points a game. The Wildcats have not performed well against ranked opponents.
Santa Clara lost to Gonzaga three times this year. They beat St. Mary’s, a quality team, twice. The Broncos play good team basketball. Christian Hammond, Santa Clara’s leading scorer, will show out. I like Santa Clara in a close one.
AKRON, OH - JANUARY 16: Akron Zips guard Tavari Johnson (5) looks to shoot during the first half of the men's college basketball game between the Western Michigan Broncos and Akron Zips on January 16, 2024, at the James A. Rhodes Arena in Akron, OH. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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This one screams upset. Texas Tech is without JT Toppin, who tore his ACL. The Red Raiders will have to lean on its depth and guard Christian Anderson. How much their three-game losing streak carries over is a big question.
Akron has quietly been one of the better mid-majors this year. Their schedule has been favorable. Close losses to Yale and Miami (Ohio) kept them from a 30-win season. Tavari Johnson and Amani Lyles are outstanding players.
Akron wins this in the dreaded 12-5 matchup.
Take the over 156.5 total also. A boatload of points will be scored.
My brackets are filled, the bets placed, the office pool done. I just need to dodge the office manager’s nonsense picks. Apparently, she likes Furman over Connecticut because it’s fun to say Furman. Lord help us.
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