Gunnar Henderson (Baltimore Orioles - SS)

Over 0.5 Home Runs (+334) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Gunnar Henderson ripped 28 homers in 622 plate appearances in 2023, surged to 37 home runs in 719 plate appearances in 2024 and dipped to 17 homers in 651 plate appearances last year. The massive fall in power was unexpected and unfortunate, but he’s still young and hit the ball hard.

The left-handed-hitting shortstop’s average exit velocity in 2025 was 92.1 mph, only slightly below his career mark of 92.3 mph, and higher than his average exit velocity of 92.0 mph in 2023, when he clobbered 28 home runs. His barrel rate and hard-hit rate were career lows of 8.5% and 49.0%, neither of which was alarmingly low.

Even in a down year by his lofty standards, Henderson excelled with the platoon advantage at home. He slugged nine homers in 221 plate appearances against right-handed pitching in his homer-friendly home ballpark.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards underwent renovations before the 2025 season, and its 121 park factor for homers last year was the second-highest mark in MLB. It’s an ideal venue for launching long-balls.

Henderson’s matchup for Opening Day is also favorable. Joe Ryan’s 1.37 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) allowed last year was tied for the second-highest mark among the Opening Day probable starting pitchers. Furthermore, Ryan ceded seven homers and 1.54 HR/9 to 177 left-handed batters faced on the road last season.

The weather is also working in Henderson’s favor to hit a dinger on Thursday afternoon, with the wind blowing out and the temperature in the low 70s. Henderson can start his bounce-back in the homer department in his first game of the year by ripping a round-tripper, and his +334 odds offered to hit a home run at DraftKings are compelling enough to bet.

Max Muncy (Los Angeles Dodgers - 3B)

Over 0.5 Home Runs (+371) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Max Muncy’s calling card is his patience and his power. The left-handed slugger hit 19 homers in 388 plate appearances last year, his age-34 campaign. His power and ability to put a charge into the ball haven’t gone anywhere.

Among 251 qualified hitters in 2025, Muncy was tied for 54th in barrels per plate appearance rate (8.2%), 41st in barrels per batted-ball-event rate (13.6%), tied for 61st in fly-ball and line drive exit velocity (95.2 mph), tied for 51st in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (37.4%) and 21st in steepest launch angle (19.6 degrees). Muncy also had a 48.1% fly-ball rate. He hits the ball hard and in the air often, which is a recipe for home runs.

He did his best home run work with the platoon advantage at home. Muncy hit 13 of his 19 home runs last year in 174 plate appearances against right-handed pitching at home. He also added two homers in 35 plate appearances against lefties at home.

Muncy’s ability to reach the seats often at home shouldn’t come as a surprise. Dodger Stadium had the highest park factor (137) for homers last year, and it has the highest park factor (127) for homers over the past three years.

Muncy also has the best matchup to hit a homer among the Opening Day starting pitchers. Zac Gallen’s 1.45 HR/9 allowed last season was the highest mark among Thursday’s probable pitchers. In addition, Gallen had only an 18.5% strikeout rate and allowed 1.38 HR/9 to 200 left-handed batters faced on the road last year. Muncy’s +371 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook to homer on Opening Day are enticing.