WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 29: Braylon Mullins #24 of the UConn Huskies celebrates after shooting the game-winning three point basket during the second half of a game against the Duke Blue Devils in the Elite Eight of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Capital One Arena on March 29, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)
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All those bets add up. The U.S. market (read: Americans) is expected to legally bet $3.3 billion on the 2026 men’s and women’s basketball tournaments combined, according to a report from the American Gaming Association.
This is a jump from the $3.1 billion legally bet on the 2025 tournaments. In case you’re wondering, $3.3 billion is roughly the same as the gross domestic product of Greenland.
Because of the number of games and length of the event, the NCAA basketball tournament gets more bet on it than the Super Bowl, America’s ultimate celebration of excess. But the Super Bowl gets the most wagers on one single event—$1.76 billion last year.
The AGA expects close to $3 billion to be bet on the World Cup final, legally. God only knows how much is bet on the World Cup illegally all over the world.
Now that the Final Four for the men are set, let’s examine each team’s betting resume to this point. I’m not one who believes that raw data is the only thing you should examine when placing a bet, but it’s fun to see what the numbers show. There are no players, no coaches, no match-ups investigated here, just numbers.
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - MARCH 29: Yaxel Lendeborg #23 of the Michigan Wolverines reacts against the Tennessee Volunteers during the second half in the Elite Eight of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at the United Center on March 29, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
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Currently Michigan is anywhere from a 1 to 1.5-point favorite with the over/under total around 157. If you think that’s high, you should. In the last 10 Final Four games, only three have gone over that number (teams that win play defense).
Michigan is an ugly 18-20 against the spread this season and 16-22 over/under. They were underdogs one (just one) time this season against Gonzaga.
Michigan were double-digit favorites 24 times this season and went 9-15 against the spread.
But what about when they were favored by five points or less? In those games, Michigan went 4-2.
The total for this one is 157. Does Michigan play a lot of games at that pace? Data says 19 of Michigan’s games this season have gone over that number.
SAN JOSE, CALIFORNIA - MARCH 28: Brayden Burries #5 and Motiejus Krivas #13 of the Arizona Wildcats celebrate after defeating the defeating the Purdue Boilermakers 79-64 in the Elite Eight of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at SAP Center on March 28, 2026 in San Jose, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
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The Wildcats are 36-2 overall and 23-15 against the spread.
They have been underdogs twice this season. They are 2-0 as underdogs, beating Houston and, oh lookie here, UConn.
The Wildcats were double-digit favorites 20 times this season and went 11-9. How many games did they play that went over 157 points? 14.
HOUSTON, TEXAS - MARCH 26: Andrej Stojakovic #2 and Keaton Wagler #23 of the Illinois Fighting Illini celebrate after defeating the Houston Cougars in the Sweet Sixteen of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Toyota Center on March 26, 2026 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Kenneth Richmond/Getty Images)
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Illinois is currently two-point favorites with the total around 140. It’s amazing that there is a 17-point difference between the totals listed for both games.
The Illini are 28-8 straight up and went 21-15 against the spread. That’s actually a really good number. They went 14-22 over/under.
Illinois has won its last four games against the spread. They were favored in three of them—the only tournament game they weren’t the favorite was against Houston.
Illinois’ average margin of victory in the tournament is 19.5. The Illini were underdogs seven times this season. They went 4-3 as underdogs.
How many games did Illinois play this season that went over 140 points? 20.
WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 29: Braylon Mullins #24 of the UConn Huskies celebrates after shooting the game-winning three point basket during the second half of a game against the Duke Blue Devils in the Elite Eight of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Capital One Arena on March 29, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)
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UConn was the Vegas underdog twice this season. They won both times. They beat BYU by two, and as we all know, they just beat Duke by one.
They have won their last three games against the spread—they didn’t cover a big number against Furman in the first round. The Huskies’ average margin of victory this season is 14.9 points.
The Huskies played 18 games that went over 140 points. The big deal here is that these same two teams already played this season, on a neutral site—well, not really neutral. UConn beat Illinois 74-61 at Madison Square Garden. UConn were 4.5-point favorites in that one and covered. The total was 150.5 and hit the under.
No word on how many bets came in from Greenland.
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