New York Knicks at San Antonio Spurs, 8:30 p.m. ET

Same-Game Parlay:

• Spurs Alt. Spread +2.5
• OG Anunoby Over Alt. Points + Rebounds (21.5)
• Stephon Castle To Score 15+ Points

Odds: +216 on FanDuel Sportsbook

As just alluded to, the Spurs found themselves quickly down 0-2 in the NBA Finals thanks to a pair of uncharacteristic stumbles at home.

However, there were extenuating circumstances in both games, which, when factored alongside San Antonio’s Game 3 win at Madison Square Garden and their dominance for nearly three quarters in Game 4, lend credence to the notion a bounce-back effort could well be in the cards.

During the regular season, coming into the Spurs’ home floor was typically an unenviable endeavor – San Antonio won 32 of its 40 games at Frost Bank Center and never lost more than two consecutive games there. The Spurs haven’t been quite as successful there in the postseason – they’re only 6-5 straight up at home in these playoffs – but they still retain a solid 28-22-1 mark against the spread on their home floor since the start of the regular season and an average scoring margin of +9.0 points there, per Team Rankings.

In Game 1 of the Finals, the Spurs sustained an atypical double-digit home loss thanks in large part to the difference in fatigue between them and the Knicks, as New York had a five-day cumulative rest edge that particularly came to bear late. San Antonio was then poised to even matters up in Game 2 after an impressive fourth-quarter rally before Victor Wembanyama’s 20-footer as time expired just narrowly missed finding the net.

The Spurs are listed as solid 5.5-point home favorites for Game 5, but given the Knicks’ body of work in this series, they naturally can’t be underestimated in any fashion. As such, we’ll capitalize on FanDuel’s Alt. Spread feature and build in some cushion for the hosts, pushing their line all the way to +2.5 for our first leg.

Next, we’re turning to the player who put the exclamation point on the Knicks’ fabled second-half rally in Game 4, that being OG Anunoby.

The star forward scored his final points of the night by crashing the boards and outhustling multiple Spurs for a putback of a Jalen Brunson miss, which proved to be the difference in the game.

Anunoby’s success was simply par for the course for the veteran, who’s put together an outstanding postseason. Per RotoWire, the big man has averaged 20.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.1 blocks across 34.6 minutes per contest over 16 postseason games to date.

He’s coming off his best (33 points) and third-best (28 points) scoring tallies of that sample as well, and since the start of the Eastern Conference Finals, Anunoby’s converted 45.9% of his 10.6 rebounding opportunities per contest, per NBA.com. Then, Anunoby has recorded over 21.5 points + rebounds in 13 of 16 playoff games overall, while finishing just short with 20 in one other instance.

Consequently, we’ll focus on that 21.5 figure as an Alt. total and make it the second leg of our parlay in a game where New York will naturally be going all out to dispatch the Spurs and secure their first championship since 1973.

For our third and final leg, we’ll turn to the Spurs’ side and hone in on Stephon Castle, who will be out for some redemption after a frustrating Game 4 in which he encountered foul trouble and then couldn’t get off a would-be game-winning shot attempt at the buzzer due to some aggressive defense.

Castle came into Game 4 averaging 18.0 points over the first three games of the Finals, and 19.0 overall with 47.7% shooting since the start of the postseason. The talented second-year pro had exceeded 15 points in all but four of the Spurs’ 21 games in that latter sample, and he’d scored no fewer than 13 points in any of those contests.

The early foul trouble got Castle’s night started on the wrong foot in Game 4, and he ultimately managed to scrape his way to 13 points only because of a perfect 8-for-8 showing from the free-throw line. Otherwise, he was uncharacteristically timid, putting up a postseason-low seven shots.

It’s a virtual certainty a repeat isn’t in the offing Saturday, not with the stakes at play for the Spurs. While Castle does tend to pick up three or more fouls relatively frequently, it’s likely he’s much more involved offensively from the jump in Game 5, which should give us a chance to be insulated if he spends some extra time on the bench later in the contest.

Castle is still averaging 16.8 points over the first four games of the Finals despite Wednesday’s downturn, and he averaged a nearly identical 16.7 at home during the regular season. He’s also gotten to the line on 14 occasions over the last two games alone, and he could naturally see some benefit-of-the-doubt calls on his home floor if he’s aggressive driving to the basket, as expected.

With a solid track record to the 15-point mark, we’ll bank on the 2025 No. 4 overall pick stepping his game up with everything on the line for his team and getting to at least that statistical threshold.