MLB Best Home Run Bets

Oneil Cruz (Pittsburgh Pirates - OF)

Over 0.5 Home Runs (+375) at Hard Rock Bet

Oneil Cruz’s +375 odds to hit a home run offered at Hard Rock bet are the best across the industry. Unfortunately, Hard Rock Bet operates in a limited number of states. Still, the +361 odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook are close enough to warrant betting in markets where DraftKings Sportsbook is available, and Hard Rock Bet isn’t available.

Cruz is a Statcast darling. Among 276 qualified batters this year, Cruz is eighth in barrels per plate appearance rate (13.1%), fifth in barrels per batted-ball event rate (23.2%), fourth in hard-hit rate (63.8%), second in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (102.3 mph), first in maximum exit velocity (119.0 mph) and tied for 94th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (36.2%).

Cruz’s gaudy batted-ball data has translated to fence-clearing power, hitting eight home runs in 27 games and 122 plate appearances this year. He has an 8.2-degree launch angle, 18.8% line-drive rate, 34.8% fly-ball rate and 33.3% home runs per fly-ball rate this year. The slugger’s fly-ball rate leaves something to be desired, but the ball frequently finds the seats when he lifts it.

Cruz has a favorable matchup tonight. Dustin May has allowed 18 home runs, 1.79 home runs per nine innings (HR/9), a 22.0% line-drive rate, 38.2% fly-ball rate and 18.2% home run per fly-ball rate to 405 left-handed batters since last season.

May has also yielded all three of his home runs in his two road starts of five starts overall this season. The 28-year-old righty has struggled mightily to keep the ball in the yard on the road. He’s allowed 15 homers (2.05 HR/9) to 298 batters faced on the road since 2025. Cruz won’t make May’s life easy tonight, and Pittsburgh’s slugger has an excellent chance to hit a home run.

Max Muncy (Los Angeles Dodgers - 3B)

Over 0.5 Home Runs (+310) at BetRivers Sportsbook

Chris Paddack has a significant home run problem. The 30-year-old righty has allowed five home runs (1.88 HR/9) in five appearances (four starts) this season, coughing up at least one homer in all four of his starts and avoiding a home run in his relief appearance.

Paddack has also allowed 24 home runs (2.08 HR/9) to 440 batters faced since last season. The 407 left-handed batters who’ve faced Paddack since last year have rattled off 20 home runs (1.91 HR/9). Paddack will almost certainly allow at least one home run tonight.

Max Muncy will give Shohei Ohtani a run for his money for the most likely Dodger to hit a homer against Paddack, and, of course, both players could do so. Muncy has hit nine homers this year, belted six homers in 81 plate appearances against righties, five home runs in 49 plate appearances at home and three in 37 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers at home.

The 35-year-old left-handed slugger has excelled with the platoon advantage at home. In 319 plate appearances against righties at home since 2024, Muncy has hit 23 home runs, with a 19.7% line-drive rate, 52.7% fly-ball rate and 23.2% home runs per fly-ball rate.

Muncy’s batted-ball data also looks great this year. Among 276 qualified hitters, Muncy is tied for 15th in barrels per plate appearance rate (11.5%), 15th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (19.0%), 23rd in hard-hit rate (54.0%), tied for 33rd in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.5 mph) and tied for 138th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (33.3%).

Muncy also has a 13.3-degree launch angle, 15.9% line-drive rate, 41.3% fly-ball rate and 34.6% home run per fly-ball rate this year. Muncy’s fly-ball rate should play well in his homer-friendly ballpark tonight against a pitcher who struggles to keep the ball in the yard.

Since 2024, UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium has had the highest park factor (130) for home runs. Muncy’s odds for his home run prop are chalky, but the likelihood he hits a homer tonight warrants making the wager.