DETROIT, MICHIGAN - MAY 05: James Harden #1 of the Cleveland Cavaliers and Cade Cunningham #2 of the Detroit Pistons battle for the ball during the second quarter in Game One of the Second Round of the NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs at Little Caesars Arena on May 05, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
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The final installment of the last semifinal-round series remaining sets up as a potential gem, considering how tightly contested several of the games between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons have been.
Cleveland has already notched one victory at Little Caesars Arena, and oddsmakers are clearly expecting another highly competitive game as evidenced by the narrow 4.5-point spread in favor of the hosts.
Ahead of tonight’s high-stakes showdown, we dive into a three-leg same-game parlay that could deliver handsome returns on investment:
(Odds listed are best at time of publishing)
The Pistons sport a relatively modest 4.5-point projected advantage for Sunday’s series finale after having posted a pair of 10-point victories at home to open the series. Detroit did slip up in Game 5 at Little Caesars Arena, although Detroit blew a 60-52 halftime lead in that contest.
Per Team Rankings, the Pistons are 36-11 straight up at home since the start of the regular season, including 32-10 as a home favorite. Detroit is 5-2 on its home floor in the postseason specifically, and per NBA.com, home teams are 117-41 (.741) in Game 7s in NBA playoff history.
Cleveland is a solid 26-21 straight up as an away team since the start of the campaign, but the home crowd will naturally play a part in this elimination matchup. The Pistons also check in riding a wave of confidence after their dominant 115-94 win in Cleveland in Game 6, giving me confidence in utilizing the Pistons moneyline as the first leg of our parlay.
Despite my belief in the hosts prevailing, James Harden is very likely to put together another one of his signature all-around productive performances. The Beard has been especially effective over Games 4-6, averaging 37.0 points + rebounds + assists while shooting 40.7% from three-point range, per RotoWire.
Harden has had plenty of trouble from in front of the arc during that sample, but he’s given his offensive numbers a serious boost by shooting 84.8% from the line on 11.0 free-throw attempts per game.
While Harden’s standard points + rebounds + assists figure is 30.5, we’ll utilize FanDuel’s Alt. Total feature to coax that figure down to 27.5, a number the star guard is 5-1 to the Over against in the series and 8-2 overall in the last 10 games.
To wrap up our parlay, we’ll turn to Harden’s point-guard counterpart in Cade Cunningham. The 2021 first overall pick is averaging 41.8 points + rebounds + assists across 41.9 minutes per game over his last nine contests, dating back to Game 5 of the first-round series against the Magic. Per RotoWire, Cunningham has been blistering hot from deep over that span, connecting on 51.7% of his three-point shots.
Given that body of work, Cunningham’s conventional points + rebounds + assists prop for Sunday is unsurprisingly 40.5. However, that figure comes off as a bit elevated when splitting out Cunningham’s body of work during this series in particular -- he’s averaging 38.7 points + rebounds + assists in the first six games against the Cavaliers, going 2-4 to the 40.5 number in the process.
The two games in which Cunningham did eclipse the threshold had one very distinctive aspect to them – he took 27 shots in each. However, he’s taken no more than 19 in any of the other four contests, and 23 or fewer in all but one of his other playoff games.
Consequently, for Sunday’s purposes and our third leg, we’ll bring that 40.5 number considerably down by using FanDuel’s Alt. Total feature to make that figure 33.5, a number that Cunningham is 11-2 to the Over on this postseason.
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