Rafael Devers has a favorable matchup for hitting a home run against Miles Mikolas and homer-prone bullpen.
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The MLB best home run bet drought continued yesterday, with two more misses. The season ledger sits at a 3-12 record, with one no bet for a player who didn’t start. The skid has eaten away at most of the season’s profits.
Nevertheless, readers who bet $100 on each of the suggested home run props at the listed odds are still up $200. Sunday’s home run bets will decide if the season line dips to $0 or swells.
Fortunately, all 30 teams are playing on Sunday, creating a vast pool of home run props to pick from. The two following home run bets offer the best blend of likelihood of coming to fruition and betting odds offered.
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+449) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Rafael Devers is off to a forgettable start to his 2026 campaign. He has hit only two homers in 21 games and 90 plate appearances this year, and he hasn’t hit one since April 8.
Devers’ low home run total early in the season mask less discouraging batted-ball data. Among 277 qualified batters in 2026, Devers is tied for 80th in barrels per plate appearance rate (7.1%), 83rd in barrels per batted-ball event rate (11.3%), tied for 80th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (95.0 mph) and tied for 101st in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (35.8%). Those marks don’t live up to the standard Devers has set to this point in his career. Nevertheless, they’re not dreadful.
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Devers has a golden opportunity to get off the schneid today. Among today’s probable starters, Miles Mikolas has allowed the most home runs per nine innings (3.45 HR/9) this season.
Mikolas has allowed at least one home run in three of his four appearances this year, including coughing up four homers to the Dodgers on April 3. He has also permitted 19 home runs to 403 left-handed batters faced since last year.
Devers has the power-hitting prowess to take homer-prone Mikolas deep. Yet, if he’s unable to hit a homer against Washington’s starter, Devers could get on the board against Washington’s bullpen. Washington’s relievers have allowed the second-most home runs per nine innings (1.93) in MLB this season. Devers’ matchup against Mikolas and the relievers for the Nationals is too tasty to overlook his +449 odds to hit a home run offered at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Bryce Harper has a track record of hitting home runs against right-handed pitching at Citizens Bank Park.
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Over 0.5 Home Runs (+389) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Bryce Harper provided us with one of the winning home run props earlier this year, when he launched a home run at +400 odds on April 1. Harper is once again a sweet pick to hit a homer today.
The veteran left-handed-hitting outfielder is a terror for right-handed pitchers in his homer-friendly home ballpark. Harper has crushed 25 homers in only 397 plate appearances against righties at home since 2024.
Harper also has pristine batted-ball info. Among 277 qualified batters this year, Harper is tied for 20th in barrels per plate appearance rate (11.4%), 32nd in barrels per batted-ball event rate (15.3%), tied for 70th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (95.4 mph), 39th in maximum exit velocity (112.5 mph) and tied for 62nd in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (39%).
His most recent batted-ball data is stellar, too. Among 185 qualified hitters in the previous 14 days, Harper is tied for 28th in barrels rate (16.7%), tied for 39th in hard-hit rate (52.8%) and had a 10.1-degree launch angle.
Harper doesn’t have a great matchup to hit a home run today. Grant Holmes has allowed only two homers this year, coughing up one in two of his four starts. Still, Holmes has a mediocre 20% strikeout rate against the 290 left-handed batters he’s faced since last season.
Holmes isn’t the caliber of righty to fade Harper’s +389 odds to homer against a right-handed pitcher at homer-friendly Citizens Bank Park. The 115 park factor for home runs at Citizens Bank Park is the fourth-highest in MLB from 2024 through 2026.
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