SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS - MAY 24: Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs is congratulated by Dylan Harper #2 and Stephon Castle #5 after scoring a basket against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the second quarter in Game Four of the NBA Western Conference Finals at Frost Bank Center on May 24, 2026 in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)
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What will it take for San Antonio to win the NBA title and make the sports bettor a little money? We find out beginning tonight.
The Spurs are a 4.5-point favorite to take game one from the New York Knicks.
Equal parts home court advantage, coming out of a rugged Western Conference and Victor Wembanyama have the Spurs entrenched as favorites. Head to head, New York won the season series 2-1 including a win in the NBA Cup. Two of those games were early season tilts. The final matchup was March 1st with the Knicks winning by 25. Take what you will from their results.
The odds by Caesar’s Sportsbook certainly don’t lend much weight to the regular season affairs.
SAN ANTONIO, TX - MARCH 12: De'Aaron Fox #4 of the San Antonio Spurs shots over the Dallas Mavericks in the second half at Frost Bank Center on March 12, 2025 in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ronald Cortes/Getty Images)
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Pretty good consensus across all sports books on this. San Antonio has the competitive advantage boxes checked across the board. Stephon Castle and De’Aaron Fox control the backcourt and Wembanyama controls everything else. Look for him to tire Karl-Anthony Towns and whoever else guards him. Unless Towns can bring him out of the paint defensively Wembanyama will dominate and effectively shut down the rim.
The Spurs were 11-6 against the spread this postseason, a great result considering the strength of the Western Conference. That hit streak continues for at least game one. The crowd will be electric and Wembanyama excels when he can show off in front of a hot crowd (see game in France last year).
This one will come down to the Knicks defensive philosophy for the series. Let him have his points and shut everyone else down? Limit his effectiveness and roll the dice elsewhere? Somewhere down the middle. The Spurs are pretty good from the outside so the Knicks must pay attention.
Over 30 points (+111) is a great value bet.
I love this bet. The Knicks will challenge the rim early. Victor will be waiting. Series record for blocked shots loading? Yeah probably.
SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS - MAY 24: Stephon Castle #5 of the San Antonio Spurs dunks the ball against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 of the Oklahoma City Thunder during the third quarter in Game Four of the NBA Western Conference Finals at Frost Bank Center on May 24, 2026 in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)
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We will see how well Castle drives the bus on the big highway. He must control tempo on the offensive end. The Knicks will throw up a boatload of threes and try to push the pace. Castle needs to slow the game down and get everyone involved. He gets 10+ and Wembanyama has a monster game. Which leads to…
Any player to score 50+ points (+2800)
Someone will do it. Two good candidates here. Great odds on a (not quite) sucker bet. I would actually lean towards Jalen Brunson doing it but we’re talking about the Spurs here. This is series long action so take a flyer on it.
No blowouts in any game. Competitive series start to finish. San Antonio steals a game in New York and wins it all.
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