Nick Kurtz quickly established himself as one of MLB's most prolific home run hitters as a rookie in 2025.
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MLB home run bets are inherently difficult to cash because homers don’t come in droves. That’s why they’re justifiably priced with longer odds than many MLB player props. Bettors must be mentally prepared to lose more of their wagers on home run props than they win.
Unfortunately, my MLB Opening Day home run picks were a reflection of the difficulty of successfully picking home run bets. Neither Gunnar Henderson nor Max Muncy hit a homer on Opening Day, but that’s the nature of the beast. Tonight is another opportunity to cash some home run bets, and the following two left-handed sluggers have enticing odds to wager on their home run props.
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+271) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Nick Kurtz hit the ground running in his rookie season, crushing 36 homers in 117 games and 489 plate appearances last season. The left-handed-hitting first baseman’s power was also reflected in his batted-ball data.
Among 251 qualified batters last season, Kurtz was 17th in barrels per plate appearance rate (10.2%), seventh in barrels per batted-ball-event rate (18.4%), tied for eighth in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (97.7 mph), 37th in maximum exit velocity (114.6 mph), tied for 27th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (39.0%) and had a 15.3-degree launch angle. He also had a 19.1% line-drive rate, 43.0% fly-ball rate and 30.8% home run per fly-ball (HR/FB) rate in his rookie campaign. Kurtz crushed the ball.
The lefty’s overall numbers were fantastic. Yet, they were even more eye-popping when isolated to look at his work with the platoon advantage. In 336 plate appearances against righties last year, Kurtz hit 27 home runs with a 19.9% line-drive rate, 40.3% fly-ball rate and 36.0% HR/FB rate.
The fly in the ointment in Kurtz’s statistical profile was his 30.9% strikeout rate. However, he drastically improved his strikeout rate during his rookie season, cutting it down from 33.2% in 235 plate appearances in the first half to 28.7% in 254 plate appearances in the second half.
Kevin Gausman isn’t a pushover matchup for Kurtz. Yet, the 35-year-old righty’s pitch mix could bite him in the butt against Kurtz. Gausman threw his four-seam fastball 53.7% of the time, his splitter 37.5% of the time and his slider 8.7% of the time last year. Meanwhile, Kurtz hit 15 home runs against four-seam fastballs, four against sliders and one against splitters in 2025.
Kurtz should also get a lift from playing in Toronto. The Rogers Centre’s 104 park factor for home runs is tied for the 12th-highest mark in the last three years. Kurtz has a decent chance to start his sophomore campaign with a home run against the Blue Jays tonight.
Yordan Alvarez will face a pitcher tonight who he's gotten the better of in previous matchups.
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Over 0.5 Home Runs (+400) at Hard Rock Bet
Sadly, injuries limited Yordan Alvarez to 48 games and 199 plate appearances last season. Even in an injury-abbreviated campaign, Alvarez hit the ball hard.
Among 389 batters with at least 100 batted-ball events last season, Alvarez was 30th in barrels per plate appearance rate (9.5%), tied for 47th in barrels per batted-ball-event rate (13.8%), tied for 33rd in maximum exit velocity (115.4 mph), 40th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.1 mph), fifth in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (42.8%) and had an 18.3-degree launch angle. Alvarez’s batted-ball data was excellent. Alvarez also had a 21.0% line-drive rate and 45.7% fly-ball rate last season.
Alvarez is 28 years old, and there’s no reason to believe last year’s injuries will hinder his performance this season. The left-handed-hitting outfielder and designated hitter can crush pitchers of either handedness, and southpaws haven’t deterred him.
Alvarez has hit 18 homers with a 21.9% line-drive rate, 40.1% fly-ball rate and 15.4% HR/FB rate in 421 plate appearances against left-handed pitching since 2023. He has a drool-inducing matchup tonight based on his history against the opposing probable starting pitcher.
Yusei Kikuchi hasn’t been able to solve the puzzle of taming Alvarez’s thunderous bat. Alvarez has clobbered three home runs with a 94.8 mph exit velocity and 22-degree launch angle in 28 career plate appearances against Kikuchi.
Hard Rock Bet’s +400 odds are the best odds for Alvarez’s home run prop. Since Hard Rock Bet isn’t offered as widely as many other sportsbooks, it warrants mentioning that Alvarez’s +350 odds available at BetMGM are also desirable.
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