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The recent news that Fox has ordered a spin-off of Family Guy called Stewie, and that CBS is picking up NCIS: New York, the eighth series in that franchise, presents an excellent opportunity to analyze how much of broadcast network programming is driven by original ideas compared to spin-offs and adaptations, and how that composition has changed over time.
Primetime schedules are more than 70 years old, and the programs they deliver remain highly relevant. They fuel a large part of viewing for all of the streamers from both current season and library episodes. Over the past ten years, there has been a significant change in the sources of ideas for this programming.
For the soon-to-conclude 25/26 TV season, only 43% of the series on the four major broadcast networks are based on original ideas. The rest are either adaptations of foreign formats, reboots of prior series, based on movies or books, spin-offs, or extensions of an existing franchise. Ten years ago, 64% of programs on the 15/16 prime schedules were based on original ideas, twenty-one points higher.
Number and percentage of Broadcast series by content origin
Chart created by author
Whether or not a TV program is based on an original idea should not be confused with labeling it good or bad. While some television critics lament the high number of spin-offs and reboots that have been produced, the public clearly enjoys many of them, based on viewing data and their success rate.
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As production costs reach new heights and traditional ratings find new lows, broadcasters have to be more risk-averse. In the past, networks could count on their biggest hits to deliver a large, passive lead-in audience to new programs, which only had significant competition from other linear TV shows. In the present, the power of the lead-in has been dramatically reduced, and streaming cannot make up the difference because viewers have to make an effort to seek out the new series on the right platform - an active process. In addition, streaming is massive competition and the cause of the decline in linear ratings. Due to these changes, the networks have increasingly turned to recognizable titles to spur interest. This is not a new strategy, but it is at an all-time high.
U.S. programs that are based on pre-existing sources can be broken down into three categories. The first is comprised of remakes or adaptations of other TV series, either ones that originated in other countries or reboots of older American shows. A second contains spin-offs or extensions of existing franchises. The final covers titles that are based on books and movies.
25/26 Broadcast series, # and % by concept origin category
Created by the author
For the current season, foreign formats and reboots are the largest source of programming not based on original ideas. International adaptations include such veteran unscripted series such as The Voice, Survivor, and Dancing With The Stars, and three new, successful scripted series: Doc, Memory Of A Killer, and High Potential. Current reboots include series that originated in the 2000s (Scrubs), the 1980s (Matlock), and the 1960s (Hollywood Squares).
For franchise extensions, there are multiple series in the Chicago, NCIS, and Law & Order universes in addition to celebrity editions of long-running game shows. 9-1-1 Nashville, Boston Blue, CIA, Sheriff Country, and Marshals are all spin-offs of drama series that are new this season. As a trivia point for younger readers, The Simpsons spun off The Tracey Ullman Show. There are also a handful of programs based on books, such as Tracker, from novels by Jeffery Deaver, and Will Trent, from Karin Slaughter’s bestsellers.
The original ideas populating the current schedule cross multiple genres and include both veteran stalwarts that are more than 20 years old (Grey’s Anatomy, 60 Minutes, Law & Order) and series with fewer than ten seasons (The Rookie, Abbott Elementary, Universal Basic Guy). There is no formula or consistency to the type of original ideas that succeed, but spin-offs and franchise shows can be more formulaic and predictable.
15/16 Broadcast series, # and % by content category
Created by the author
Ten years ago, foreign formats and reboots were also powering multiple unscripted programs and a few scripted series, but with six fewer titles than in 25/26. The scripted foreign adaptations failed (Mistresses, Mysteries of Laura) but one of the reboots was a ten-year hit (Hawaii 5-0).
The spin-off/franchise category was also six titles smaller. At that time, the Chicago franchise was immature, the CSI universe was on its last legs, The Bachelor had not yet gone off the rails, Criminal Minds was still strong, and NCIS continued the steadiness still seen today.
The only non-original category that was bigger in 15/16 than 25/26 featured shows based on books (or comic books) and movies, which had ten more titles, and included Marvel series (Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D), crime dramas based on novels (Bones), and programs adapted from films (Minority Report).
The dominant factor that drove the 15/16 season to be two-thirds original ideas is that fifty more TV shows were produced compared to the current season, 143 vs 93. Ten years ago, at the dawn of streaming’s emergence, the broadcast business model could support more “at-bats”. Local and cable syndication was an extremely lucrative business in which a breakout, repeatable series could generate one billion dollars over time, and every new show had a chance to play those odds. Just one success could offset many losses.
Today, traditional syndication is a shell of its former self, and streamers do not offer the same level of license fees that broadcast + cable syndication used to, except for the most elite properties. When combined with the production cost increases and ratings decreases mentioned earlier, the result is that the upcoming 26/27 season will not only feature Stewie and NCIS: New York, but also a reboot of Baywatch and, potentially, new spin-offs of The Rookie and Fire Country, according to Deadline. Original ideas will always find a place on linear television, but their role has diminished over a decade of structural change in the television landscape.
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